One year of UPA govt in India: No rupture foreseen

India, the largest democracy, is experiencing coalition culture in recent times when it comes to governing the country and it is now almost inconceivable that any single party can have its government in the South Bloc. Needless to say that this pattern of government is getting strengthened in India and the latest UPA government is no exception. Gone are the days when a single political organisation could muster enough support in the lower house of parliament and stake claim to form a government of its own. Even the major parties seldom these days remotely dream of having an absolute majority in the 545-member lower house of parliament (Lokshaba), elected by direct popular votes. They either seek to reach electoral understanding before the voting or look for like minded parties in the event of necessity to form the government as an absolute majority is often lacking. The previous NDA government and its successor UPA alliance, all fit in the same milieu of coalition culture.

The coming together of different political forces for the purpose of rule is not unusual in parliamentary democracy, which may come by under compulsion or sheer political understanding or both, But it has also its own pitfalls particularly when none of the constituents enjoy outright majority by its own strength. This is mostly the case in the Indian political scenario these days. As such, how long the coalition government can remain in power is always a matter of interest.

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The Congress which spear-headed country's independence movement, ruled the nation without any interruption for a pretty long spell and one person Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister, remained at the helm till his death in 1964. Lal Bahadur Sastri, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao -- all Congress prime ministers -- headed their party government without any coalition. The end of single party ascendancy in the pattern of rule ended when Congress under Indira Gandhi lost in 1977 to Janata Party, which was born out of combination of several political organisations. Morarji Desai, Chadrasekhar,VP Singh, HD Deve Dowda, IK Gujral and lately AB Vajpayee -- the non-Congress prime ministers -- were products of coalition culture. The present head of government Dr. Monmohan Singh is no exception as he leads a multi-party government although his Congress is the dominant force in the alliance.

The coalition authorities generally come into being depending on political exigencies and at times relying on the support from outside. The UPA government has nearly 20 parties in it and obviously the ruling coalition often comes under pressure from the constituents, which have both ambitions and priorities despite having broad common agenda. The Indian government has survived these pressures in the first year evidently for the reason that none wants to jeopardise the authority that gives benefit to all.

The UPA government has several heavyweight politicians coming from various parties and their ambitions may create problem for the ruling alliance. The presence of Sharad Pawar of Maharastra and Laloo Prasad Yadav from Bihar is potentially troublesome since these senior politicians can come to differences over their influence and strategy. However, so far a positive condition persisted despite some differences and no doubt this has been made possible largely because of the remarkable gesture demonstrated by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, who in a near unprecedented manner refused to become prime minister when the position was on the platter. She remains the most powerful figure in the ruling alliance being the chairperson of the UPA.

The previous NDA government did not face any problem in second term of rule as there was hardly any infighting which was experienced in the first tenure. The presence of Vajpayee, who had no rivals as such in the alliance because of his stature, helped it maintain unity among more than twenty parties in the coalition. But it is the complacency that cost it heavily since advancement of the polls by several months was a misjudged decision which boomeranged on the NDA. A major reason for its largely unexpected electoral debacle was apathy and negligence to the rural areas. The new UPA government appears to be quite conscious of that attaching importance to the previously neglected sides. It has taken several welfare-oriented programmes. Prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and his finance minister P. Chidambaram often stress on the need for developing rural economy as well.

While the economy looks healthy, the UPA government has faced political embarrassment on several issues. The opposition has kept up its pot boiling against the government and is firing the salvo against the "tainted" ministers. Former coal minister Shivu Sharan was forced to quit as a sequel of an earlier criminal case and some other ministers too, including influential Laloo Prasad Yadav, are opposition's target. Mr Sharan was retaken in the ministry and later made chief minister of his Jharkhand state even when the majority of the UPA in the state assembly was not there. The BJP protested and finally the opposition prevailed and this came as a serious jolt to the image of the UPA. Influential railway minister Laloo Prasad Yadav has of late been charge sheeted in a case when he was chief minister in Bihar state, but he has not so far resigned. The prime minister or for that matter UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi would have welcomed the voluntary resignation but could not ask Laloo to quit since his 23 party MPs are important for the survival of the government. This exposes the weakness of the government on moral ground.

On foreign policy matters, earlier a reported comment by external affairs minister K. Natwar Singh on New Delhi's position in sending troops to Iraq had come under immediate criticism from both opposition and some UPA partners. The minister had retracted from the comments attributed to him evidently under pressure from the leftists and his own leader Sonia Gandhi. UPA government's policy towards the neighbours is being viewed as positive, at least compared to the NDA government, which in the last days of its rule initiated peace process with Pakistan that is being pursued more seriously by the present government.

However, the decision to skip the 13th Saarc summit in Dhaka causing postponement of the event was not without controversy and the recent decision by the government to resume arms supply to Nepal even though the dismissal of the elected prime minister by the King was severely criticised by New Delhi has come in for criticism from several quarters including the leftists. However, the government has shown interest in the re-scheduled Saarc summit in November this year, and this will help it remain close to the Saarc family.

On the whole, the UPA government is faring reasonably well even though it is not totally free from trouble. There seems no immediate or major threat to its existence and it can rely upon leftists' support for the near future unless any serious hiccup torpedoes the understanding. Although, the absence of the leftists from a government function marking the first anniversary of the government indicates that all may not be well in the UPA-leftists relations, but no major rupture is expected barring unforeseen developments. The government seems firm in the saddle.

The first year anniversary was unfortunately marked by bomb explosions in capital New Delhi when a film was being screened allegedly containing scenes hurting the sentiments of the minority Sikh community. Delhi is ruled by Congress party and as such the development is embarrassing for the UPA. Close on the heels of the first anniversary of the government, the Bihar state assembly has been dissolved much to the criticisms of the opposition. The hung assembly failed to facilitate formation of a government but the UPA government in New Delhi chose to scrap the legislature when opposition NDA was in striking range to form a government with defectors. This will bring UPA-NDA on collision course.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist