Dr. Singh goes to Washington

The world order of 20th century has been changing dramatically and a new alliance of countries is being formed at the 21st century. In that context, the visit of India's Prime Minister to Washington has many ramifications on world affairs. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, India has realised that there is no option but to embrace the US. During the Cold War, India's relationship with the US was uneasy and mired in distrust as the US was a close ally with Pakistan.

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Emerging new alignment
The fragility of post-war Iraq confirms that it is easier to wage war than it is to win peace. Every state has watching how the US has been bogged down in Iraq for an indefinite period, and the messy situation has undermined the credibility of the US in reshaping the world order.

Europe is increasingly distancing itself from the foreign policy directions of the US. France and Germany want a multi-polar world replacing the current uni-polar world, the US being the lone superpower, calling all the shots. Before the Iraqi war in 2003, French President Chirac said: "We want this world to be multi-polar and to make sure that each pole of it makes well-balanced decisions."

Russia under President Putin maintains an uneasy relationship with the US, and differs with the US in helping out Iran in building a nuclear reactor and agreed to supply short missiles to Syria against the wishes of the US. If Chechnya was not a problem for Russia, it would be more open against some of the policy directions of the US in world affairs. Political analysts believe that Russia will gradually assert itself in many trouble-spots in the world.

Furthermore, China is rising and is demonstrating both its economic and military power in Asia. On America's doorsteps, Brazil under the left-wing President Lula is rearranging its relations with the Middle East countries. Oil-rich Venezuela is defying the wishes of the US on many issues and looking for an oil market in China so that its income does not depend on oil exports to the US.

New dynamics in relations
The interests of the US and India appear to converge in many areas. Both are democracies and both have stakes in the future world order. Both can shape the contours of the world to their advantage. India knows that it is being wooed by the US and it can determine how far and to what depth it can have relations with the US. Being a large country in a geo-strategic location, India thinks that it can manage the US embrace on its own terms.

The major shift of US-India relations took place when President Bill Clinton visited India in 2000. In plain words, he acknowledge India's regional role. The conceptual change has come under the Bush administration in the context of rising China as a global power.

The National Security Strategy of 2002 said that the US sought a "transformation in its bilateral relationship with India."

Currently the Bush administration has gone further. When the two leaders met briefly in Moscow in May at celebrations to honour the 60th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Europe, it is reported that President Bush introduced his wife Laura to Dr. Singh: "This is the Prime Minister of India and I am going to take you to his country this Christmas-New Year so you can see the most fascinating democracy in the world." The message is clear that both Bush and Singh can "do business."

When the US Secretary of State Dr. Rice visited India in March, she said: "This is my first stop as Secretary of State in Asia. The President has personally put a lot of time and energy into the relationship. The US has determined that this is going to be a very important relationship going forward and we are going to put whatever time we need into it." It is reported that when Rice met with Singh she presented an outline of the new level of relationship "to help India become a major world power in the 21st century."

It is quite unusual in diplomatic terms that a US President has sent a signal of this dimension to India. It simply means that the US will help India realise the global aspiration that its size and geography merits, and that its post-1991 economic liberalisation has caught the attention of the US administration.

It is noted that India has already planned to acquire Theatre Missile Defence System from Israel and Russia as part of its efforts to neutralise missile capabilities of Pakistan. Furthermore India's nuclear protocol states that nuclear weapons are to deter armed aggression by "any state or entity against India and its forces."

It seems that defence matters with the US are moving quite fast. The US is reportedly offering India the most advanced of its F-16s, high-tech defence and space cooperation including Patriot and Arrow missiles, and access to once taboo nuclear technology. The US is reportedly prepared to discuss more fundamental issues of defence transformation with India, including such areas as command and control and early warning system.

During the Cold War, America's strategy was to contain the Soviet Union. US President Nixon's rapprochement with China in the 70s gave the Soviet Union a feeling of encirclement. No analogy is perfect but at present India is being cast by the US in the role of China of the 70s to provide a feeling of China's encirclement.

India's balancing act
India has been delicately balancing its relations with both the US and China. Too much close cooperation with the US may adversely affect its standing among Asian and African nations as it seeks permanent membership on the Security Council. Furthermore, the strategic cooperation with the US should not be perceived as anti-China. India has to assure China that its cooperation with the US is not a part and parcel of US "containment strategy" of China.

India has already been moving in this direction to calm China and hosted the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister last April. The statements of both Chinese and Indian Prime Ministers have given indications of broader relationship. Dr. Singh said: "India and China can together reshape the world order," and during the visit eleven agreements were concluded. The agreements demonstrate the maturity of their new relationship in areas, among others, in trade, joint petroleum, gas, and space exploration. Furthermore, the recent meeting at Foreign Minister level of China, Russia, and India provides testimony to the balancing act (the three countries constitute 40 percent of the world's population).

Conclusion
India has sought recognition in the international community of its position as a large and long-standing democracy. India's nuclearisation in 1998 reflected the belief that nuclear weapons constituted a short-cut to establishing the country's stature as a major actor -- in former Prime Minister Vajpayee's words, the nuclear tests "show our strength and silence our enemies."

Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India, in his book The Discovery of India (1946), firmly believed that India would be one of the four powers (the other three being America, China, and Russia) on which the future of the world would depend. It seems that India at last is on the path to realise the vision of Nehru.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.