Showdown over the choice of next UN chief?

When asked recently about his likely successor the UN chief hinted at the possibility that an Asian might be replacing him. It is true that as a matter of convention the Secretary General of the United Nation is elected on the basis of geographical rotation. Kofi Annan further hinted that there was a general feeling amongst the UN membership that the next turn of an UN chief would be for one from Asia which is without a UN Secretary General for last thirty-four years. The last Asian UN chief was U Thant of Burma who held the UN's top slot during 1961-71.

The Asians have already come up with two candidates who formally declared their intention to run for the post: former UN Under Secretary General for Disarmament Affairs Jayanta Dhanpala of Sri Lanka and ex-Thai foreign minister Surakiart Sathira Thai -- both distinguished in their fields. China, a veto-wielding Asian power and member of UN Security Council recently announced its intention to back an Asian candidate for the job but has not as yet named the candidate. Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Laksman Kadirgamar said last week that China had expressed its "possible willingness" to support Dhanpala. "China has written to us saying that our candidate will be seriously considered", he told newsmen in Colombo. The sentiment of China, the proponent of an Asian century, is understood. Also the bona fide of an Asian candidate is above the board.

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Yet the journey ahead for having an Asian UN chief is not likely to be smooth. What will critically matter is how the United States will look at the matter. Can an Asian candidate or its lobby withstand the new surge of Pax Americana which subsumes within it the future shape of things in or outside the world body? Obviously the United States would like to have its 'own man' in this vital appointment and with her power potential she can always influence it. Even if an Asian candidate could be a universal choice the Eastern Europeans with covert backing from the US appear poised to challenge Asian claim to the job.

The US President George W Bush "might prefer Annan's replacement to come from a region seen as more sympathetic to the US interests: Eastern Europe" according to the Newsweek International. In that equation one possible candidate is the current President of Poland -- the country known for its open support to Bush's Iraq War. President Kwasniewski whose five-year term as Poland's head of the state ends in October. "Kwasniewski is a White House favourite for supporting the Iraq invasion with Polish troops and for his domestic free market policy." Among the Asian candidates there is none with such credentials.

In a newspaper interview in Warsaw, Kwasniewski also admitted that he would be willing to run for the post as an Eastern European candidate if the United Nations undergoes necessary reforms. "Then it would be an interesting challenge. Or else I am completely unsuitable for such a role." The observers however reckon that his conditional reluctance is simply a calculated modesty.

Meanwhile, Eastern Europe as a regional group has been disputed in various quarters. Even the UN diplomats insist on the group's non-existence -- except at the United Nations. The twenty-two countries of the former Eastern Europe which range from Bulgaria and Georgia to Slovenia and Ukraine have been virtually absorbed either by the revamped European Union (EU) or the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) with its former identity totally diluted. "There is no reason for an Eastern European group to exist at the United Nations", says one senior third world diplomat. According to him they should now join the West European group where they rightfully belong.

Ramesh Thakar, a senior vice rector at the Tokyo-based UN University said that under a longstanding convention it is Asia's turn to have the UN Secretary General. "Eastern Europeans' claim that they have never had a Secretary General and so they should get priority stand to no reason. Because Europeans have so far had three (Trigvelie of Norway, 1946-53, Hammarskjoeld of Sweden, 1953-61 and Kurt Waldheim of Austria 1972-81) compared to one for other continents", he said. Thakur also said that East Europeans who have been more eager to join the EU and NATO can lay there claims within European groupings for a tilt at the Secretary General's post after the next one.

These reasonings apart what is more important is how the Washington's neo-conservatives would decide the issue. Not only a handsome largesse is due to Poland, the US also would like to invest among the hapless East Europeans. A showdown, therefore, appears inevitable over the issue portending a period of fresh bitterness in the UN system.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.