Foul play of power

There was no need to delve into this dramatic event had it been a matter of Dick or Harry. Rather it involves hitherto a long serving President who also happens to be the leader of third largest political party of the country. Despite lots of odds after being ousted from power through a mass upsurge in 1990 Ershad-led Jatiya Party (JP) has emerged as the second largest opposition in parliament in consecutive three elections held under caretaker government of 1991, 1996 and 2001. JP got 11.92 per cent of total votes in 1991, 16.40 per cent in 1996 and 7.26 per cent in 2001. So, on an average JP has 10-12 percent votes at its disposal that is much higher than the much-talked about vote bank of Jamaat or any other party about which none appeared to be bothered very much until the results of Chittagong City Corporation (CCC) polls that have suddenly brought JP under the spotlight once again as the victory of Mohiuddin Chowdhury had upset all political equations of BNP-led ruling alliance so far. Now it is being assumed that JP's votes shall singly be very much crucial for the two major contending parties that will be vying for power in the next general elections.

Until Chittagong mayoral elections BNP's main aim was to keep the Awami League (AL) isolated from other parties and prevent formation of another alliance of rightwing parties. So far these two objectives were concerned BNP had nothing to worry about victory at CCC polls. Because the so-called formation of a grand alliance under the leadership of AL has been limping for a long time and another alliance of some rightwing parties is yet to gain ground. Despite that why candidate backed by BNP-led alliance embraced humiliating defeat in the CCC polls is a matter of great concern for BNP as the alliance's performance was good in the Chittagong region where in last general elections it polled 52.84 lakh votes as against about 34.71 lakh by AL.

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The CCC poll has demonstrated clearly the vulnerability of the ruling alliance compared to the combined strength of the opposition. Which is why BNP now seems to change its strategy of confronting its main rival by aligning Ershad-led JP by hook or by crook to its own fold. Because, the combined strength of the AL and JP, according to political analysts based on the number of votes they received in last general elections, can create trouble for four-party alliance in the next general elections. For example, in Rajshahi, Dhaka and Sylhet divisions AL received respectively 53.85 lakh, 78.23 lakh, 13.76 lakh votes and JP got 22.56 lakh, 8.23 lakh and 3.41 lakh votes while four-party alliance secured 65.99 lakh, 74.89 lakh and 13.51 lakh votes in the last general elections. Statistics shows that the total votes received by AL and JP in these three divisions are respectively 76.41 lakh, 86.46 lakh and 17.17 lakh and that of BNP plus JP are 88.55 lakh, 83.12 lakh and 16.92 lakh. The voting calculation of the 181 constituencies in these three divisions indicate that the ruling alliance may face a serious trouble in the next elections if the AL and JP join hands. On the other hand the four-party alliance will win if they manage to earn JP's support.

As such BNP's main objective is now to secure clear assurance from Ershad that JP shall not join the AL or AL-led alliance. Since the BNP policymakers have no faith in Ershad as he had quit the four-party alliance ahead of last parliamentary elections so presumably this time they will leave no stone unturned to manage him that has perhaps reflected in the arrest of Bidisha who was reportedly in favor of making an electoral alliance with AL. A total of 15 graft cases pending against the former usurper of power have provided the government with a powerful leverage to turn him into a puppet. Which is why, it appears, octogenarian Ershad was compelled first to expel Bidisha from the Presidium of JP and secondly divorce her unceremoniously.

Now whether JP led by 'lady-killer' Ershad would join AL or BNP or form a separate electoral alliance is anybody's guess. But what is discernible is that in all probability, given the arithmetic of votes, the former autocrat might be looking like the kingmaker of future power politics. The CCC poll results have further highlighted the reality to the parties concerned to the extent that now while the government will keep up squeezing the second largest opposition in Parliament to join its coalition, the main opposition AL will also try hard to get it in its camp in the next general elections. Hopefully one party/alliance will win the elections and the other will lose. And then the nation may witness boycotting of Parliament by the main opposition from the very first session of new House on this pretext or that.

In fact, the nation has been facing the challenge of the main opposition party not attending parliament in a democratic set-up. It is some 14 years since parliamentary democracy was restored. During this long period most of the times the main opposition was out of Parliament. Was it the order of things to happen, as the restoration of parliamentary democracy was the result of a long and sustained popular movement? The government and the opposition forget that the first and foremost duty is to sustain the parliamentary system, in the absence of which the boycott has little meaning.

The British parliamentary system that we follow describes the opposition as Her Majesty's opposition. It is considered to be a part of the government. There is never any boycott because it is unthinkable that a part can be separated from the whole. But what we have been witnessing in our parliament is a farce. Whey AL is boycotting budget session, the most important annual business of the country, is not understandable. If it is the question of publicity -- that appears to be the primary purpose -- then they could have had demonstration outside parliament house. The BNP also cannot occupy high moral ground because it too boycotted parliament when the AL was in power. Boycotting parliament is too serious a matter to be trifled with for political purposes, which may in the long run cripple our hard earned democracy. A consensus reached in parliament is accepted by the nation. What otherwise has been going on in the country is nothing but the highhandedness of the AL and BNP, reflecting misgovernance or non-governance.

Saiful Alam is a businessman.