Unavoidable dilemmas we all face

Unless the Americans and Russians begin to disarm, at least their nuclear weapons, further progress is barred. The Americans do not actually care about non-proliferation of atomic weapons; they use it as a lever to pressurize smaller powers for geo-strategic purposes. The way America has connived with Israel over its WMDs and the way US strategists talk about Japanese security exposes their hypocrisy. Given America's nukes, Russia will never give them up because Russians have reasons to suspect American intentions. Britain and France are also unlikely to disarm. Their Bomb is meant actually to deter Germany. Germany of course abjures nationalistic unilateralism and thus the Bomb.

Israel's quest for nuclear capability is meant for regional domination. Israel works in concert with the US and its security is a major American priority. No one expects Israel to disarm.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

India's and Pakistan's cases are different. Why did India go nuclear? There is confusion over it. India formally held China to be a security threat for which reason it went nuclear. But few believe this. China exploded its nuclear device in 1964. India exploded its first nuclear device in 1974 full 10 years later. Now, if India could live for 10 years without nuclear weapons, knowing that China had them, the alibi of Chinese threat wobbles. What might be likely is that Mrs. Indira Gandhi, having heard of Pakistan's plans, exploded her PNE in 1974 to scare Pakistan away from this path. However, this is a guess. Pakistan, for its part, makes no bones about its Bomb being India-specific; it is meant to deter invasion. Now that Pakistan has acquired nuclear capability, India is wholly unlikely to disarm and vice versa.

North Korea's case is interesting. There is the history of 1950s War in Korean peninsula. America has learnt its lessons. Nevertheless, America is subjecting North Korea to pressure. The purpose seems to be regime change. President Bush may huff and puff but will not actually start a war. Simply put, the Chinese wont let America subdue North Korea and dominate the whole Korean peninsula. Nor would Russia like to see that eventuality. The bold and forthright North Korean diplomacy wants at bottom enough security guarantees and aid from the US. That is the price for their nuclear weapons. But Americans do not seem willing to give North a decent way out.

As for Iran, it regards itself as an emergent power. It wants to play a prominent role in the ME. It is wont to berate Israel because it has occupied holy Al-Quds. As an Islamic state, it has to oppose Israel far more resolutely than do the Arab states. Indeed, most Arab states have made separate peace deals with Israel. Most Arab states have left the Palestinians to their fate. But not so the Iranians. It is Palestinians who do not relish Iranian aid because of its religious overtones, while Palestinians are mostly secular-minded. Geo-politically, both Israel and Iran aim to dominate ME, especially its oil-bearing regions. This rivalry is inherent. Iran's efforts for acquiring nuclear capability is not strange. Iranians say they do not like nukes and will never fabricate them. But few take this at face value. Enmity with Israel and America is forcing them to acquire nuclear capability.

What makes humanity's dilemma painful is because there is very little to do about it. Only powerful states hold the initiative, mainly Americans. They reinforce diplomacy by deploying overwhelming military power, backed by nukes for meeting their economic and political needs. That caused the long chain of proliferation by now to nine states. One has written earlier that Americans want to dominate whole of Asia and control its strategic raw material. They want to be in a position to deny strategic raw material to non-friends. Americans tightly control Middle East already. Most of its regimes are either American protectorates or otherwise dependent on them. Except Iran there is no regime over which the Americans do not have dominating influence. Exceptions used to be Iraq and Syria. Now no more.

Given America's methodology and purpose, viz. creating an imperial system to control resources, what should freedom-loving people do? Europeans are already uncomfortable. Africans and Latin Americans can only watch in varying degrees of disfavour and disgust. But the Asians cannot possibly accept this horrid unipolar world. Moreover, there are several flashpoints in Asia, possibly nuclear. There is Taiwan. Koreas still remain a flashpoint, despite the reluctance of America to undertake ground operations in the peninsula. Neocons can still succeed in persuading Bush to use aerial bombardment to reduce North to rubble. Americans can conceivably do that, though given the steadfast neutrality on the side of North Korea by China and Russia, it probably will not.

Then there is the famous flashpoint of Kashmir and other India-Pakistan disputes. There is this Peace Process and various CBMs. Friendship is supposedly round the corner. The hard fact however is that despite a year and a half's efforts, the two governments have not succeeded in resolving even one minor dispute, let alone all. And Pakistan can be heard sotto voce that without the resolution of disputes, friendship with India is unsustainable. This refrain is to be remembered. This means that India-Pakistan relations can revert to animosity and a war and a nuclear exchange can still take place. In fact many would go to the extent of saying that if ever there is going to be a nuclear exchange it will be between India and Pakistan. There are other obvious flashpoints in Asia like Israel and the Arabs and more particularly Iran. One has noted that if Iran ever goes nuclear it would be because of Israeli capability. This too is a flashpoint.

Relentless power politics is said to be inescapable. That means occasions of conflict and proliferation. The only possible countervailing force is world opinion and patches of democracy. To mobilize this force is the moral imperative. All dissident opinions on Iraq, peace and for a better social and economic deal needs to be coordinated and purposefully brought to bear on powerful governments.

Rest of mankind, especially South Asians, have to see the danger at their doorsteps. They have to do make maximum effort to integrate with the international anti-nuclear and other peace movements. The Indian and Pakistani governments need to be compelled, to stay aloof from the American designs on Asia and to support the international peace movements. Unless a powerful international peace movement is revived, little can be done to prevent their ruling elites from siding with the US. Indeed, it is for Indian and Pakistani peace movements to revitalize the international peace movement. The best way they can do is to work for and succeed in nuclear disarmament among themselves.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.