Sri Lanka bracing for a new crisis?

The government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga had succeeded in reaching an agreement with the Tamil rebels for tsunami relief operations, and thereby raised hopes for restoration of the peace dialogue between the two sides. The opposition led by former premier Ranil Wickramsinghe pledged to support the deal on the relief works, and in the process the differences between the government and opposition had also somewhat narrowed down.

But the brighter conditions turned otherwise rather unexpectedly and both the developments now appear to be on the jeopardy. The supreme court has struck down the accord on disaster management, calling it "illegal" and also questioned the source of the huge funds of billions of dollars from the international community, and this dealt a serious blow to the government-rebel understanding.

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At the same time a key ally of the ruling coalition -- communist JVP -- has withdrawn support from the government, protesting the deal with the rebels and this has reduced the government to a minority. The situation prompted the opposition to demand mid-term polls and the spectre of political instability is stalking the island state.

Both these came as contrary to expected healthy developments. Sri Lanka, consequently, now faces the prospects of an early election, and the non-implementation of the agreement on the relief management means going back to square one as far as whatever scope had existed for bringing the government and the rebels closer.

It is unfortunate for the country which has been experiencing bloody civil war for two decades and also intermittent political instability owing to rivalries among major political forces. The governments are not proving stable.

The government-rebel deal on humanitarian operations was reached after painstaking efforts, but the verdict of the supreme court came as a big setback to their understanding. The peace process between the two sides have been stalled for long, and many thought the accord could provide an opportunity to two warring sides to come closer, which may have helped to restore the negotiations aimed at ending the civil war. The court ruling only contributes to blocking the two sides from coming closer.

The peace talks are stalled for long and took a beating following exit from power of former prime minister, Ranil Wickramsinghe, whose government had initiated the dialogue with the rebels but was dismissed by the president, Chandrika, evidently for being "soft" on the Tamil militants. The elections that followed brought Chandrika's supporters to power under a new prime minister, Mahindra Rajapakse, and chances of a settlement of the two-decade civil war through discussions have since been hanging in the balance.

Six rounds of talks between the Colombo government and the Tamil Tigers during Ranil's time raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in the country, which was virtually bleeding to white because of the long drawn conflict centring on the minority Tamil's armed struggle for a separate homeland in the north of the country.

There was no decisive outcome of the civil war, as success on the battlefield swung from one side to the other, and occasional cease-fires produced no tangible results, and hostilities resumed in quick time. However, the situation marked a qualitative change when the government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickramsinghe took an active pro-peace position with the rebels over three years ago, which facilitated a dialogue, making some progress.

While it would be the height of folly of expect easy resolution of the Sri Lankan civil war given the complexities involved in the issue, the dialogue gave hope, since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of the Tigers, while the later abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils -- and agreed for autonomy.

The road to peace through negotiations is undoubtedly bumpy, but what was remarkably encouraging was the marked willingness to find common ground towards a permanent settlement of the problem. Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated a commendable attitude in carrying forward the parleys. Admittedly, talks occasionally went into rough weather and even had at one stage been suspended indefinitely, but both side never spoke of resuming hostilities.

Unfortunately, things turned bad when President Chandrika Kumaratunga moved to dismiss Ranil's government. Sri Lanka has a strange democracy which is neither presidential nor parliamentary. The president has wide powers, including the power to sack the elected government of the prime minister, even if he enjoys majority in the parliament. But, rather paradoxically, it is the prime minister and the cabinet that effectively runs the nation. Chandrika is a hard-liner in her attitude towards the rebels compared to Ranil.

However, President Chandrika says that she favours the peace process with the militants, even though there have been no effective steps from her government to resume the dialogue She also feels that she would have to shoulder the blame should the fragile cease-fire finally collapse and hostilities resume.

The powerful Western nations like the United States, Japan, and the European Union have urged her to take steps for resumption of talks with the rebels. Norwegian peace mediator Eric Solhem played a key role in facilitating the accord on relief between the government and the militants. Diplomats in Colombo are now disappointed by the supreme court ruling since this will rob the two sides of a chance of working together and this could have helped resume the stalled peace dialogue. Now the scenario is different.

The communist JVP was against the relief deal, saying this would give extra importance and leverage to the rebels. The party is against concessions to the militants. As it parted ways with the ruling coalition, the government turned into a minority in the 225-member parliament. Not unsurprisingly, the opposition has begun demanding snap elections, and Ranil Wickramsinghe is touring the country with this demand.

President Chandrika is confronted with the demand of fresh polls on one hand and the fall-out from the unexpected supreme court ruling on the relief accord on the other. Both were unexpected, but the reality is that both have happened.

Zaglul A.Chowdhury is a senior journalist.