Food production loss from climate change
WHILE addressing the executive and retreat sessions of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) 2009, at the National Academy of Performance Arts in Port of Spain, the capital of Trinidad and Tobago on November 27, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina sought separate financial assistance in the form of Official Development Assistance (ODA), for most vulnerable countries like Bangladesh, for enabling them to cope with the threats stemming from climate change and calamitous weather conditions. She reminded the world leaders that although Bangladesh's contribution to greenhouse-gas emission was negligible, it was the worst sufferer of the global warming.
While explaining to the global leaders the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and food production, Sheikh Hasina said that universal food security would be difficult to achieve unless the people and economy were safeguarded from the climate risks. She also laid emphasis on a mitigation process for safeguarding the existence of the globe from disastrous consequences of excessive carbon emissions.
Global food security has been a matter of great concern, particularly for the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO). The Director-General of FAO has stated that, over the next three decades, the world's population will grow by 2.3 billion. Meeting the demand of the world's 9.1 billion inhabitants in 2050 will require 70% more food than the world produces now. If right decisions are not taken today, there is risk of finding the global cupboard dangerously bare tomorrow. More importantly, he has cautioned that in the years ahead the world food system must deal with the growing challenge of climate change, which may reduce potential agricultural output by 30% in Africa and by up to 21% in developing countries as a whole.
According to IUCN, the case of Bangladesh is unique in the climate change context as the country will eventually face multi-dimensional appearance of climate change such as flood, cyclone, sea-level rise, drainage congestion, salinity, drought, etc. UNDP's Comprehensive Disaster Management program lists climate change as a serious component of Bangladesh's vulnerability to natural hazards.
According to our climate change experts and agricultural scientists, variability of temperature and rainfall pattern in the country exhibit early signs of climate change. The country experienced 32% less rain than normal during the June-July period this year, the peak time for transplanting aman paddy. The rainy season surprisingly started this year in mid-May instead of the first week of June. If the pattern of rain and winter keeps changing due to global warming, there is no doubt that the country's agriculture sector will be hit hardest. Erratic rainfall and deviation in temperature will bring critical changes in rice farming patterns and affect production of food grains (rice, wheat), starchy tubers (potato, cassava), vegetables (cabbage, cauliflower, tomato), pulses (lentils, peas), fish, etc.
Against this situation of declining food production, the population of Bangladesh, according to various studies, will double to 280 million at the current rate of growth by 2080 and reach about 180 million as early as 2020. Annual population growth rate outpacing annual food production growth rate poses a challenge for the country.
Bangladesh is yet to properly assess the food production loss that will result from global warming and climate change. On the other hand, India is known to have made significant progress in this regard. Quoting Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR), The Hindustan Times of November 30 writes that if temperature rises by between one and four degrees Celsius, the production of food items will decline by up to 30%.
The assessment shows that India's annual average wheat production of 75 mn tonne will decrease by 5.2%, 15.6% and 31.3% in 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. Annual average rice production of 90 mn will decrease by 6.7%, 15.1% and 28.2% in 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively. Annual average potato production of 2.2mn tonne will decrease by 3% and 14% in 2020 and 2050 respectively. The assessment also shows negative impacts on fish and coral reefs. Another study by the ICAR has further found that protein content in wheat can fall by 10% and iron content by 8% due to carbon emissions.
Agricultural scientists want Rs.7,000 crore every year for climate change mitigation. But others think that this amount is much lower than the financial loss caused by crop failure.
Assessing Bangladesh's food production loss due to global warming and climate change will help us ask for financial assistance in the form of ODA. The United Nations Climate Change Conference, scheduled to be held from December 7 to December 18 in Copenhagen, may be the right forum for raising the issue. After all, Bangladesh should not suffer for the fault of others who are responsible for global warming and climate change.
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