Separate strategy needed
COPENHAGEN, as many had feared, delivered very little. The developed world once again used its clout to deny a fair deal for all other countries, particularly the worst hit ones. Many had gone to the meeting expecting a great accord with legally binding clauses but what it produced was a "thin deal" even by the UN, which is a professionally optimist body. Many are saying that this is the first step and some have said that the process will go on for a better deal, but it's going to be more disappointment if one expects all this. The poor countries have basically been left to fend for themselves as they have no clout in the world of international negotiations.
The three main groups -- developed, developing and the hard hit-- are not on the same page. The developed world faces two problems. How does it comply with scientific facts and common sense and agree to binding targets that will inevitably put a dampener on its own economic system? The other does not know how to agree to a global deal that will take the interest of all nations into account when political systems are geared towards thinking in terms of just one's own country.
The emerging countries are actually in a more difficult position because, to ensure economic growth, they need to consume more carbon and as they have large populations, despite individually low carbon footprints, the total consumption is high. So they are high polluters even though most of their people are poor. This situation is being referred to by the developed world as they are demanding a global cut that will greatly hamper the poverty alleviation policies of the emerging world. What the developed world is in effect asking for is that everyone should stop where they are -- a sort of a lock-in -- which means the poor can't become less poor through economic programmes in the developing world as the West did. Naturally, the emerging economies in particular have opposed this position, which has provided a window to the industrial world to ask for cuts across the board, and the impasse has allowed the developed world to carry on business as usual.
The worst affected group's vulnerability
The third category are the poorest, least developed and worst affected countries, which includes Bangladesh and parts of Asia, the island states and large parts of Africa, which have loud voices but are not listened to. Although this is common knowledge, these countries will lose land or altogether disappear, suffer food shortage, high rates of old and new diseases and many other negatives, but the world hasn't bothered much about them. The lesson from history is that the weak are not listened to.
The existing negotiating system has left no option for the affected countries except to wait for small mercies and crumbs from the high table of international power, unless they gain some leverage that can make the big powers listen. The chances of any international effort will not go beyond the setting up of the climate fund as has happened.
The highly affected and the poor countries must now see the need to form another bloc apart from the wider one led by China, where they can discuss how to apply pressure and what strategies to take on behalf of the third group. It should also look at the scenarios which make the developed countries sit up and take notice as they have been ignored for long by them. While one must remain part of the developing country group, one must also remember that conflict with them is inevitable as their economies charge forward and they too move away from the worst hit group.
The diplomacy of the post-Copenhagen world will have to be far more robust and imaginative than it has ever been before. Unless the left-outs understand that the world is not geared towards caring for the less fortunate and historically speaking no country has much cared about the other, formulating policies and action will be easier by them. Copenhagen has shown that one has to take care of oneself. The developed countries have done so; it is time the developing poor and the worst-affected countries did so too.
Enayetullah Khan is Chairman, Wildlife Trust of Bangladesh.
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