We should not miss the train
ONE wonders why the Taliban are committing suicide in the name of the Muslims by destroying educational institutions in the lawless region of Pakistan. The signal given to the global community by such wanton acts of terrorism is that Islam has compressed in its the Holy Book the ultimate knowledge necessary for mankind and no further knowledge is required, an impression that contradicts one of the fundamental teachings of Islam -- instructing Muslims to go to China (a far away place in the seventh century), if necessary, to seek knowledge.
Paul Krugman (The Uneducated American-October 2009) wrote that if one had to explain US's economic success in one word it would be "education." In the 19th century America led the way in universal basic education and as the other nations followed suit the "high school revolution" of the 20th century took the Western world to its height of prosperity, and the US continued to lead the world in higher education. The US continued to produce a greater number of scientists, doctors and engineers and along with Europe and Canada accounted for about half of the global GDP (adjusted to reflect purchasing power parity) in early 21st century.
This picture, writes Jack Gladstone (The New Population Bomb- Jan/Feb 2010-Foreign Affairs), is going to change mainly due to demographic factors. The UN Population Division has identified four historical shifts that will fundamentally alter the world's population in the next four decades - the relative demographic weight loss of the developed countries by 25%; shifting economic power to the developing countries; labour force n developed countries will substantially age and decline; and, most of the global population growth will occur in the poorest, youngest and Muslim countries short of quality education, capital and employment.
The World Bank predicts that by 2030 the developing countries would have a middle class of 1.2 billion people, that will be larger than the combined population of the US, Europe and Japan. As the factors driving economic growth, translated into greater productivity in the developed world in the second half of the 20th century, were better education, movement of women into the labour force and innovation in technology then the violent acts of the Taliban and Islamic extremists against secular education can only lead us towards the dark ages and the periphery of the global village.
In his article Gladstone mentioned that in 1950 Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey had a population of 245 million that rose to 886 million in 2009, and another 245 million might be added by 2050. Pakistan, for example, faces a "demographic disaster" if its leaders fail to invest in the youth population. Half of Pakistan's population is aged less than 20, with two-thirds still to reach their 30th birthday.
Countries with younger populations are more prone to civil unrest and political destabilisation, and suffer from Dickensian poverty and anarchic violence. They have less belief in accommodating dissenting voices and are more likely to resist pluralistic, multicultural, multi-religious, and multi-linguistic society. Gladstone suggests that Turkey's admission into the European Union, despite reservations of some European nations, is not only to regenerate youth and economic dynamism in the EU but is also a signal to the Muslim world that EU is not a Christian club.
Gladstone would favour the division of the world, as opposed to the Cold War terminology of First, Second and Third World, as aging industrialised world, second world consisting of fast growing and economically dynamic countries, and the third world of fast growing, urbanised and poor economies with weak governments. In order to regenerate economic dynamism immigration has been suggested to fill up the gap between the aging and working population in the industrialised nations.
Harvard Professor Bruce Scott (The Great Divide in the Global Villages) criticises the industrialised nations for erecting barriers against immigration by forcing the poor people to remain in badly governed states and denying them the opportunity to "move up" by "moving out," and making the global economy more like a gated community than a global village. A recent survey shows that qualitatively Indian immigrants to the US are head and shoulders above the other immigrants -- possibly due to higher standard of education in India, knowledge of English language and the compulsion felt by the first generation to be better than the natives. The same traits are also present among the Chinese but they lack in linguistic skill.
Despite Islamophobia, described in the Runnymede report of 1997(chaired by Professor Gordon Conway) as the illogical fear of Islam and Muslims fueled by al-Qaeda and other extremist terrorists, the Western developed countries will have little option but to allow immigration from the developing countries to keep up productivity and economic growth from youthful, energetic but poor countries provided we arm ourselves with education and skill that the developed world would need.
Bangladesh in particular, threatened as we are by the adverse effects of climate change, should be acutely aware of this vital need. Lest we forget, critics of immigration from Muslim countries (Christopher Caldwell -- Reflections on the Revolution in Europe: Immigration, Islam and the West) remain unconvinced of the wealth generated by the immigrants, which is cancelled out by the cost of accommodating them and the remittance sent home by them added to the inability of post-enlightenment Europe to play host to people yet to find comfortable mooring as minority community, are present and pose imminent danger to societies like ours who depend significantly on money sent by immigrants.
As an effective answer to the sceptics, we have to impart quality education to meet the demands of the developed and the developing worlds. Otherwise, if we keep on living in the past the train will leave the station on its way to a fast moving globalised world.
Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.
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