Implementing the new European vision
THE Lisbon Treaty has eventually entered into force on 1 December 2009 -- after almost a decade of hesitation and agonizing negotiations. This has been good news for Europe. There are still a few grey areas and pending issues that need to be addressed but the new Treaty is a step forward with the potential to enhance the efficiency, transparency and legitimacy of an EU of 27-plus.
One of these relates to the introduction of a more centralised Brussels-based institutional set-up following the election of a semi-permanent president of the European Council (Herman Van Rompuy) and the installation of a new foreign policy structure with an EU foreign policy 'chief' (Catherine Ashton), supported by a European External Action Service (EEAS).
This new institutional architecture will challenge previous institutional arrangements, including the six-monthly rotating EU presidency. However, despite the change in the paradigm, an attempt has been made to provide more continuity and predictability in EU policy-making by establishing a new presidency 'system' for the European Council, the Foreign Affairs Council, the General Affairs Council, the specialised Council formations and the Council's preparatory bodies.
The rotating presidency has been replaced by an elected semi-permanent President of the European Council appointed for a two-and-a-half year term, renewable once. Internally, the President will be responsible for driving forward the work of the European Council and ensuring the preparation of, and continuity in this work. Externally, the president "shall, at that level and in that capacity, ensure the external representation of the Union in issues concerning its common foreign and security policy, without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy."
The Foreign Affairs Council (FAC), which the Lisbon Treaty separates from the General Affairs Council (GAC), will be chaired by the High Representative, who is appointed by the European Council with the Commission President's agreement and is also a Commission Vice-President (HR/VP).
Consistent with the previous system, the presidency of all other Council formations -- with the exception of the FAC -- will be held by each Member State in turn on the basis of equal rotation. Details of exactly how this will work still need to be finalised by the European Council (by qualified majority). According to a draft decision added to the Lisbon Treaty, the presidency of all Council formations, except Foreign Affairs, will be held by pre-established groups of three Member States for periods of 18 months, with each member of the 'trio' chairing the Council for six months.
It does appear that the new presidency 'system' will create a hybrid situation in the two areas of general affairs and foreign policy whereas the original aim was to establish a non-rotational and thus more stable system. The new system will also be no less complex and multilayered than the previous one. Accordingly, it will take some time for the new institutional 'architecture' to be put into place fully and even longer to reach a new equilibrium.
Analysts generally agree that there is likely to be a first, transitional phase in 2010, followed by a consolidation period, which will most probably last until the end of Herman Van Rompuy's initial mandate in 2012. It is being hoped that by then, the new system would have been fully tested and reached a state of stability. Installing the new system will be particularly complex because the Lisbon Treaty lacks clarity in some areas, and at the same time entails checks and balances, opportunities and constraints that are not spelled out in detail.
It is apparent that the functioning of the new presidency system will depend on: (i) the decisions on their staffing and resources; (ii) the specific arrangements for their practical modus operandi, including new Rules of Procedure for the European Council and changes to the existing ones for the Commission and Council; and (iii) the way in which the Spanish and Belgian presidencies in 2010 will create precedents that might then be followed by their successors.
The forthcoming process will be monitored very carefully by a majority of EU Member States because they want to continue exercising their influence via that rotating Presidency -- regardless of whether they are big or small, old or new, more inter-governmentally-minded or community-oriented. They feel that this will enable them to articulate their own 'priorities' for their six months at the EU helm.
As a former Permanent Representative to the European Union, I feel that the specific role of the rotating presidency needs to be (re) articulated. This includes the important issues pertaining to the role of the rotating presidency in the European Council vis-a-vis its President, and in the realm of foreign policy (in the broadest possible sense of the term). These aspects also highlight the hidden problem of the new system as compared to the previous one: namely, the fact that the two pivotal figures in the traditional six-month Presidency -- the holder's head of government and foreign minister -- will have reduced relevance and could be relegated to being subsidiaries of Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton respectively.
The new EU format has also created some other important bodies. This includes the Committee of Permanent Representatives (COREPER), which to be chaired by a representative of the Member State chairing the GAC, i.e. the rotating Presidency. There will also be the Political and Security Committee (PSC), which will monitor the international situation in areas, covered by the common foreign and security policy, and will be chaired by a "representative" of the HR/VP.
All the other preparatory bodies of the various Council configurations (working groups, committees etc.), with the exception of foreign policy-related ones, will fall to the rotating Presidency. In short, many elements of the old six-monthly Presidency will remain in place for all council formations, with the notable exceptions of the European Council, the Eurogroup, the Foreign Affairs Council, and the Political and Security Committee. From that point of view the rotating Presidency will continue to play a key role in the Union's new institutional architecture and will chair the General Affairs Council and COREPER. It will also continue to exercise influence in the foreign policy arena and in the preparation of FAC meetings, even though the latter will be chaired by the HR/VP.
The Lisbon Treaty has made the European Council a separate EU institution in its own right, with specific competencies. It is being anticipated that this will bring together its semi-permanent President, the Heads of State and Government, the Commission President and the HR/VP, and that this matrix will be able to provide the EU with the necessary impetus for defining its general political orientations and priorities.
These are a lot of ambitious steps. We now have to wait and see how this vision translates into practice over the New Year and the following months.
Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador and can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net
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