Politician versus soldier
Sri Lanka's President Mahinda Rajapaksa is in an elated mood. Sri Lankans will go to polls to elect a new president on January 26. Rajapkasa is delighted because, in May last year, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was finally defeated and the dreaded Vellupilai Prabhakaran was killed. The bloody civil war had lasted for 26 years, claiming more than 88,000 lives. Riding on the wave of popularity, Rajapaksa has called for a fresh election two years before expiry of his current term, and is confident that his mandate will be renewed.
Although there are 23 candidates running, the top two contenders are incumbent President Rajapaksa and former Army Chief General Sarath Fonseka. The entry of Gen. Fonseka in the fray has made the upcoming election significantly interesting. Never before in Sri Lanka had a retired army officer contested the presidential elections.
Percy Mahindra Rajapaksa (64), a lawyer by profession, leads the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The center-left UPFA has 105 seats in the Parliament of 225. Rajapaksa has been in politics for the past four decades and was prime minister under former President Chandrika Kumaratunga till his election as president in November 2005. The decimation of the LTTE has significantly boosted his popularity in the predominantly Sinhalese (75%) community. Hindu Tamils, Christians and Muslims constitute 25 % of the island's minority population.
On the other hand, General Gardihewa Sarath Chandralal Fonseka (59) was a professional soldier for 39 years. He is a national hero, under whose command the Sri Lankan armed forces vanquished the LTTE. Soon after the war he was made chief of defense staff (CDS) in July 2009 -- a post that Fonseka did not really relish as it was devoid of powers.
During the fourth Elam war, which routed the LTTE, President Rajapaksa had given full support to his commanders on the ground. Gen, Fonseka was given full freedom to draw up plans to bring an end to the war.
After the war, an unseemly row erupted between the president and the general, as to who was the actual architect of the victory. President Rajapaksa, as supreme commander of the armed forces, duly claimed the credit. Gen. Fonseka, who coordinated the army, navy and the air force, also highlighted his role in ending the insurgency. This put the two men on a collision course. The tussle eventually led to the premature resignation of Fonseka on November16, 2009, two weeks before his retirement.
The issue here is balance of state power. During the war it was tilted towards the general. He is accused of trying to prolong his grip over that trend and even make it permanent. The president quickly moved to rein in the commanders and reassert civilian supremacy over the military. When Gen. Fonseka retired, Rajapaksa went ahead and appointed the less powerful Air Force Chief Roshan Goonatileke as the CDS, in addition to his normal duties.
While the two men squabbled, the opposition political parties, looking for a popular winnable candidate, approached Gen. Fonseka to run for the presidency. The general agreed to be the "common candidate" of the United National Party (UNP) and Janata Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP -- meaning People's Liberation Front).
UNP is the largest opposition party in the current parliament, having 82 seats. It is considered to be a pro-capitalist center-right party, led by the veteran opposition leader Ranil Wickremasinghe. On the other hand, the Marxist JVP, which was one of the major parties allied with the UPFA during the 2004 parliamentary elections, has broken away and has joined the opposition.
It has to be acknowledged that the credit for defeating the LTTE rightfully belongs to President Rajapaksa. None of his predecessors succeeded in resolving the Tamil national aspirations. When the Tamils formed the militant LTTE and started the insurgency successive governments were unable to put it down. External powers manipulated to keep the insurgency alive. Had it not been for Rajapaksa's political determination and courage to ignore the pressures built on him -- particularly by India and US -- the insurgency would have continued unabated. Thus, his claim of victory over the LTTE appears more appropriate.
Was it not Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who was credited for India's victory over Pakistan in 1971. General S.A.M. Manekshaw, who led the war, was promoted to the rank of Field Marshall in recognition of his services to the nation. In all wars the credit for winning or discredit for losing, goes to the political leader at the helm of the nation. General Fonseka apparently overlooked this aspect.
The issue that will dominate the election discourse is simple -- it is corruption in the government. Rajapaksa is accused of installing a dynastic rule. The president's three brothers, two sisters, including their children, and cousins have all been placed in important government positions. Shiranthi Rajapaksa, the first lady, is also not to be outdone. Her brother and nephews too have got important government assignments. There are allegations that all these relatives of the president are involved in widespread corruption.
General Fonseka is a national hero but his biggest handicap is that he has no political experience. He may be able to thwart that criticism by arguing that he has served the nation for four decades and knows the ropes of the government. He is being supported by UNP, which ruled Sri Lanka from 1978 to 1994 (Jayawardene, Premadasa, Wijetunge). His catchy election slogan is "to restore, not plunder," which points to the corruption allegations against Rajapaksa.
Some opinion polls predict that Rajapaksa is in the lead, while others claim the opposite. The election has polarised the Lankan polity. As the campaign moves ahead both the leading camps have been flexing their muscles. In some areas violence has been reported. More violence is feared as Election Day approaches.
The international community has been accusing the Sri Lanka government of war crimes and massive human rights violations over the army's conduct during the campaign against the Tigers. Whoever wins the next polls will have a formidable task at hand. The state of emergency has to be lifted and the minority communities, particularly the Tamils, have to be brought into the mainstream of development process by ensuring equal opportunities.
Mahmood Hasan is a former Ambassador and Secretary, and Policy Adviser, Center for Foreign Affairs Studies.
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