Realignment in East Europe
IT was in 2004 that the Orange Revolution took place in Ukraine in the form of a pro-Western and anti-Kremlin movement. People saw that the movement would bring economic prosperity in the country because the western region of Ukraine was not far from the gates of the European Union.
Disunity among the movement leaders, mismanagement, bad governance and anti-Kremlim stance did not lead to outcomes that the people wanted from the Orange Revolution.
Geopolitics is a reality and no country can ignore it. Ukraine was a part of the former Soviet Union and in many ways the economy is linked to Russia. Energy is one of them.
On December 24, 2008, President Dmitry Medvedev said that relations between Russia and Ukraine had plunged to their lowest level in recent years.
"As to relations in general, I have to say again that unfortunately they have never been as low as they are now. This is extremely regrettable," Medvedev said in an interview with leading Russian television channels, blaming Kiev for the crisis.
Medvedev reiterated accusations against Kiev of supplying weapons to Georgia and sending its troops to fight against Russian forces. "This is a crime against Russian-Ukrainian relations, nothing else," he said.
A Ukrainian parliamentary commission led by an opposition lawmaker said in early December that President Viktor Yushchenko had sanctioned arms deliveries to Georgia during and after the Caucasus state's war with Russia in August. Other irritants in relations between the two former Soviet states include energy supplies and the drive by Ukraine's pro-Western leaders to join Nato.
In January 2009, Russia shut down a pipeline that crossed Ukraine, ostensibly over a dispute with Ukraine on pricing and tariffs.
The political scenario changed last month, when the pro-western President Yushchenko was third in the presidential election, making the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Ms. Yulia Tymoshenko candidates for a run-off election on February 7th since none of them secured more than 50% votes.
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko were once allies but they are now so estranged that he refused to endorse her in the runoff and instead urged Ukranians to vote "against all" on the ballot.
Yanukovych won the presidential election this time and his victory has completed his comeback after his humiliating defeat in 2004. Yanukovych received 48.76% of the votes, Tymoshenko managed to get 45.66 percent. Turnout was 69 percent.
The result appeared to reflect the geographic divide in Ukraine, with Ukranian speakers in the west backing Tymoshenko and Russian speakers in the east voting for Yanukovych. The elected president said: " I will do everything to ensure that citizens of Ukraine, no matter where they live in the country, feel comfortable and calm in a stable country."
Earlier, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation and Development (OSCE) called the election fair and honest, undermining Tymoshenko's allegations of fraud and urging her to accept the result. It is reported that she might challenge the result in the court.
Yanukovych's victory will strengthen Kiev's relations with Moscow. This has already begun -- last month, Russia resumed diplomatic ties with Ukraine after a five-year lull. Talk about Russian ambitions, common under President Viktor Yushchenko, will probably cease.
Political observers say that Ukraine's possible shift toward a pro-Russia policy is troubling for Poland and the Czech Republic. Both have pointed to the Ukrainian gas dispute as evidence of Moscow's willingness to use economic resources as a foreign policy tool and of Russia's desire to re-establish its former sphere of influence.
Observers believe that the Obama administration has not shown the same enthusiastic support for Eastern European causes as the Bush administration did. It has cancelled plans for the missile shield, instead opting for a smaller missile detachment in Romania. The White House has also made efforts to mend relations with Russia.
Germany, which has cultivated deep ties with Russia during the last 10 years while largely dismissing Eastern European concerns about Moscow's renewed ambitions, continues to strengthen its relationship with Russia.
"Europe is deeply divided in its approach to Russia," Kurt Volker, who served as US ambassador to Nato from 2008 to 2009 and is now managing director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told German Radio (Deutsche Welle). "Eastern Europeans want protection while the Germans believe that stance is provocative and that the Russians should be engaged."
"I think Poland and the Czech Republic feel a bit abandoned," Volker continued. "The United States is doing deals with the Russians, Western Europe is doing deals with the Russians. Transatlantic relations are changing."
And how does the European Union look in all this? Is there actually a failure by the EU, to seize the opportunities presented by the Orange Revolution? After all, Poland pushed hard for the EU to provide Ukraine with some sort of viable roadmap towards membership.
Yet, the EU now appears to have finally discounted whatever membership aspirations Ukrainians (and, for that matter, Georgians or Moldovians) felt at the end of 2004.
Plans to sign a new Association Agreement have been repeatedly delayed, and Ukraine is now grouped together with countries like Belarus and Armenia, as part of the EU's Eastern Partnership, whose goals are, in the main, modest.
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