Going Deeper
Spring in Pakistan
ACCORDING to Gary Ackerman, a ranking member of the House Foreign Relations Committee, reliance by the Bush administration on President Musharraf for the "war on terror" has not been a success, as it has achieved neither the stemming of terrorism nor the establishment of democracy.
The International Crisis Group suggested that stability in Pakistan and its contribution to wider anti-terror efforts require immediate transformation to a democratic system that would involve the departure of President Musharraf from the political scene of Pakistan.
Reported instruction, given by the new army chief to the army intelligence to stop meddling in the recently held elections appears to be a good sign. But then again, given Pakistan's history of the involvement of the military in domestic political affairs, it is difficult to conceive a totally hands off policy by the army in domestic politics.
But continuing Western backing, of military-dominated Musharraf government, can have the nightmarish prospect of civil unrest in an already fragmented society; in which the extremist elements could create havoc.
BBC's Owen Bennett-Jones has advised that the outcome of the current power struggle should be left to the Pakistanis to decide, as external interference would only help inflame anti-Americanism. Bennett-Jones questions outsiders' ability to influence political developments in Pakistan and asks "whether it is realistic for them, for example, to try to create a flourishing, pluralistic democracy in Pakistan."
The International Republican Institute poll, conducted in November 2007, showed 66 to 75% of Pakistanis described themselves as anti-Musharraf and wanted him to go. The US, however, regardless of the sentiment of the people, wants the creation of a political order revolving around Musharraf.
Delhi-based South Asia Intelligence Review in a year-ending report on Pakistan stated that the country's "slide towards state failure (and) progressive collapse was much more rapid and irretrievable than most had envisaged." The review continues that a wide array of anti-state actors is currently engaged in varying degree of violence and subversion, and well over half of the territory presently under Pakistan's control has passed from the realm of the civil government and is now controlled by military force.
One hundred thousand troops are now stationed in the Federally Administered Territory (FATA). It is believed that, next to Sri Lanka, FATA now represents the second most violent sub-national geographical unit in South Asia.
In July 2007 President Bush's homeland security advisor reportedly stated that "there is no option that is off the table" as far as direct US intervention in Waziristan was concerned.
The February 27 declaration in Islamabad by Asif Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Afsandyar Wali Khan to form a coalition government and abolish the role of the army from national politics forever and restoration of the 1973 constitution has signaled a momentous direction for the politics of the country. The coalescing partners have formed legal committees to devise ways in order to reinstate sacked Chief Justice Ifthikar Ahmed and other judges who had refused to take oath of office under the revised Constitutional Order promulgated by President Musharraf.
There is absolute consensus over the issue by the coalition leaders to restore the sacked judiciary. Nawaz Sharif, who was thrown out of power and put in jail by General Musharraf, is adamant among the coalition partners to see the exit of President Musharraf from the Pakistani political scene. He has also demanded "action against army dictators responsible for violating the constitution and that a person responsible for suspending and arresting serving judges, banning and restricting media, dissolving an elected government, simply cannot be tolerated as a viable working partner in government." Asif Zardari, too, does not appear to be any less interested in the impeachment of President Musharraf.
Despite Western scholars wishful thinking about the free and fair elections held in Pakistan, one has to concede the depth of commitment to political Islam that has permeated the Pakistani society, which cannot be easily ignored.
Frederic Grare writes: "What is at stake here is not the link between madrassas and the jihadi organisations but rather the kind of education they disseminate and its social impact. Madrassa students are likely to graduate fully indoctrinated but not equipped enough with the skills of job market values. By maintaining a substantial part of the population, in such a state of semi-literacy, the regime guarantees its own stability; better educated people might be in a position to ask for more accountability, a greater share of power, and a more equitable distribution of the country's economic resources."
It has been the policy of successive Pakistani governments to consider Afghanistan as a place for its "strategic depth" in case of a conflict with India. The acquisition of nuclear weapons, by both the countries, might have put an end to an all out armed conflict between the two nations, because in a nuclear war there are no victors as the damage that can be wrought on the contestants that is beyond the tolerance limit of any country.
Despite Pakistan's repeated assurances to the international community that its nuclear weapons are secure, even in the case of large scale violence, internally the suspicion of the international community about he close relationship between a part of the military establishment and the Islamic extremists cannot be wished away.
While the elimination of al-Qaeda remains a constant element in the US and EU foreign and defence policies. The West is also worried over the possibility, however, remote of nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands. In January 2008 both President Musharraf and high officials of the government dismissed such a possibility. A senior military official, who is responsible for the command and control of the nuclear weapons, has ruled out any such possibility. International Herald Tribune reports that since 2000 Pakistan has established an all encompassing command and control system that is efficient, effective and responsive.
Despite all the problems that Pakistan is beset with, like many other developing countries, Pakistanis deserve congratulations for their efforts in bringing about democracy in the country.
One hopes the present US administration, in its obsession with security, would not interfere with the fragile democratic system that Pakistan is finally trying to establish on firm footing.
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