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Indo-US nuclear treaty hangs in the balance?
THE much-talked about Indo-American civilian nuclear cooperation treaty appears to be in jeopardy as no tangible progress is being made towards the implementation of the accord, while Washington warns New Delhi that the "clock is ticking" on the issue. The agreement, seen by many as a "landmark" one in the bilateral relations, was agreed in principle by President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmoihan Singh during the former's visit to India in 2005.The two sides later met several times to hammer out the details, which have also been finalised.
But the agreement remains far from being implemented, mainly because of problems with the Indian side. It is not fully free from debates in the United States, but the delay is evidently because of lack of progress in New Delhi.
It is not the Indian government, which is showing scant interest or any sign of unwillingness about the treaty. Interestingly, the government's supporters, the leftists, are not favourably disposed to such a development with the United States. On the contrary, they feel that the Manmohan Singh government is taking India "too close" to the US and, obviously, the communists can not relish such a situation.
Since the support of the leftists is critically important for the government that falls short of absolute majority in the parliament, Dr. Singh's administration is faced with a difficult situation. On the one hand, it wants to implement the agreement since the government feels that it would benefit India in many ways, while, on the other, the government can not ignore the sensitivities of its supporters while asserting that New Delhi would not roll back from the understanding.
The ruling rainbow coalition has completed three-fourths of its five-year term, with general elections scheduled early next year. It is a minority government relying totally on the outside support of the leftists, who attached no strict conditions to the government for their cooperation.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist), the main leftist force, and its allies are understandably opposed to the US. on ideological lines. They are not supposed to support a close relationship with Washington, but the government of Dr. Manmohan Singh has developed deeper ties with the US.
The civilian atomic cooperation accord is an eyesore for the leftists, and it is no surprise. But the government-leftists differences have undeniably created uncertainty about the future of the accord. Sometime ago it seemed that differences on the issue would even lead to the collapse of the government, although most analysts believe that things are unlikely to reach such a pass that will warrant a fall of ruling coalition.
The current government is at the helm with the support of the leftists, and in the event of the withdrawal of this crucial support it will collapse as a logical development of the situation.
Following the last general elections, the ruling alliance replaced another coalition government, National Democratic Alliance (NDA), headed by the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). The UPA has no requisite majority in the house, but it formed the government with the support of the communists, who have 60 members.
Many thought that this outside support would not last long since the leftists do not see eye to eye on many issues with the UPA, even though they have a common approach on the issue of secularism and some other broad matters.
Such assessment had largely been belied since the understanding remained somewhat unhindered although some issues created some misunderstanding between the two in the past, but not to the extent of causing any major problem. Foreign investment, too close relations with the United States, and policies towards agriculture are some of the issues that caused differences.
The much-vaunted nuclear deal is proving to be a difficult nut, when the leftists are opposing the agreement while the government is keen to implement it.
India has been experiencing coalition culture for sometime past when it comes to governing the country, and it is now almost inconceivable that any single party can form a government. Needless to say, that this pattern of government is getting strengthened in India, and the latest UPA government is no exception. Gone are the days when a single political organisation could muster enough support in the lower house of parliament and stake claim to form a government of its own.
Even the major parties these days seldom dream of having an absolute majority in the 545-member lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha), elected by direct popular votes. They either seek to reach an electoral understanding before the voting or look for like- minded parties to form the government, as an absolute majority is often lacking. The previous NDA government and its successor, the UPA alliance, fit in the same milieu of coalition culture.
The coming together of different political forces, which may be under compulsion or through sheer political understanding, is not unusual in parliamentary democracy. But it has also its pitfalls, particularly when none of the constituents enjoy outright majority by themselves. This is mostly the case in the Indian political scenario these days.
As such, how long the coalition government can remain in power is always a matter of interest. When the present government took over, it was also a matter of speculation about how long it would last; and such talk has gained ground of late centering on the differences on the nuclear deal.
The Congress President Sonia Gandhi is the head of the UPA alliance as well, and she seems to have spearheaded it fairly well. The government has several heavyweight politicians from various parties, and their ambitions could create problems for the ruling alliance.
The presence of Sharad Pawar of Maharastra and Lalloo Prasad Yadav from Bihar is potentially troublesome, since these senior politicians can have differences over influence and strategy. However, so far, a positive condition persists despite some differences. No doubt this has been possible largely because of the remarkable gesture demonstrated by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi who, in an unprecedented move, refused to become prime minister when the position was on the platter.
It was a reflection of her sagacity, as she had rightly foreseen that the opposition would whip up a campaign on her being a 'foreigner" had she become the prime minister of a large country like India. The Italian-born wife of slain premier Rajiv Gandhi demonstrated wisdom by this decision, which eventually helped the UPA to remain in government for the last four years.
Now, it remains to be seen how she, as the most influential person in the government, deals with the nuclear accord. The present UPA government is faring well without facing any major crisis, and is set to complete its full term barring unexpected developments.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates, wrapping up a recent visit to India, clearly indicated that time was running out for the nuclear deal and that the Indian government should push ahead for its implementation. However, he said that the failure to clinch the agreement would not affect the growing New Delhi-Washington defence cooperation, which is very much discernible now.
Leftist leaders, particularly the CPM heavyweight Prakash Karat, are known to oppose the accord tooth-and-nail, while some others leaders including from leftists citadel West Bengal blow hot and cold on the issue. Those relatively lenient on the matter feel that withdrawal of support from the government on the nuclear issue would result in the exit of the Manmohan government, and that this would not eventually help the secular forces as the BJP and allies may get an opportunity to stage a come back to power.
Likewise, some leaders in the ruling UPA also feel that too much enthusiasm about the nuclear deal will anger the leftists, and a kind of "go slow" may help the overall interest of the coalition. But many in India favour the deal, and some key figures in the government are keen to go ahead with this regardless of the communist allies' sentiments.
It appears that a firm decision on the important but sensitive issue is proving difficult for the Indian government. The bottom line is that the deal seems somewhat uncertain mainly because of Indian domestic politics.
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