As I See It
Bread,electricity and water
Given that Mian Nawaz Sharif considers confrontation to be the essence of politics, the general public perception is that converting him from confrontation to politics of compromise would be nothing short of a miracle.
The Bhurban Accord of March 9 seems to have achieved compromise, the seeming impossibility of a grand coalition. Vilified from pillar to post as being "Mr. Ten-Percent," particularly by his new-found friends, the Sharifs, till very lately, does Asif Zardari now deserve to be called "Mr Miracle-Man?"
How long this bonhomie lasts is another matter, the two differing political ideologies (and personalities) are already being tested. The first salvo is the PML (N) veto of Makhdoom Amin Fahim as PM, is this a ploy to divide and destroy the only national party? Or was Khwaja Asif's public denouncement of a respected leader of a one-day old coalition partner a "reverse" favour, on someone's request from inside the PPP hierarchy? Can PPP afford a bitter "Faqir of Hala" becoming a brooding King Lear?
A crude poll of the electorate (including the 54% who did not vote) came to conclusions that were not surprising. Law and order came out as second priority to the worsening economic situation inside and outside the country. An overwhelming majority of the populace expects immediate initiatives to ensure food, electricity and clean water. The incoming federal government will have its hands full ensuring equitable distribution of scarce resources to the common man.
The mass apprehension is -- things will get much worse before they become better. "Restoration of the superior judiciary" is not a high priority for the masses, but it is for the lawyer's community and activist segments of civil society agitating the issue for over a year. This, supposedly, will be sorted out by parliament within 30 days of formation of the government.
The Bhurban Accord may be pragmatic in the choice of priorities, the time-delay is a delayed time-bomb. The legal gorillas (that is not a pun) in and around the presidency will now proceed to plant "Improvised Legal Explosive Devices" (ILEDs) along the route to parliament: the right of self-defence?
The common intent and purpose should aim to give common Pakistanis a comfortable livelihood, with freedom to practice their choice of worship and beliefs with complete security. In literal sense, crisis translates into danger. Dangers in the realm of politics, economics and military are mostly interconnected with each other.
One must be cautious about the fail-safe line between freedom and licence. In the mindless exercise of licence, particularly by the electronic media, we could lose our freedom. We have the capacity and potential to emulate the Chinese meaning of crisis, danger as well as opportunity. Prudent and effective governance by genuine representatives of the people can overcome the inherent challenges.
Water levels in the dams and catchment areas are dangerously low, irrigation canals are underfed and electricity is in short supply. With oil prices going through the roof, electricity rates will register an inordinate rise.
With tubewells working at less than capacity, the priority must be to conserve available water and allocate maximum electricity for optimum running of tubewells. Agriculture shortages will require emergency import of food-grains and edible oils.
Manufacturing must be given priority over commercial and residential electricity requirements. The gap between demand and supply in Karachi, the main hub of manufacturing activity, being between 750 to 1000 MW during summer, a number of barge-mounted plants must be immediately sourced on priority basis to meet shortages.
A judicious allocation of available electricity resources to agriculture and manufacturing will keep unemployment from rising and becoming a socio-economic problem.
To keep the country's fuel bills from rising exponentially, car imports must be restricted and private transport discouraged by disincentive taxation, and incentives must be given for use of public transport. Kerosene and diesel need subsidising, and the rates for gas to manufacturing units kept at a minimum.
The construction industry must be given priority, cement and steel flows must be kept constant at stable prices. Water is likely to be in short supply unless we have plentiful rain. Unfortunately, we lack water storage capacity. New dams are also required to provide cheap electricity. Dams are long-term objectives with political repercussions, and tough decisions on them have to be taken now by the elected representatives.
The electoral process gave us somewhat of a hiatus from our "war against terrorism." With the Lahore bombings, targetting of soft targets is back with a vengeance. The February elections saw the rout of the religious parties, however their vote bank remains intact.
While the religious parties cannot be condemned as being party to terrorism, and the spate of suicide-bombings it has spawned, the NWFP government could not move against the militants. In Fata this did not make much difference, in Swat this inaction was almost fatal. Maulana Fazlullah was allowed free rein to turn a paradise into hell.
Extremists to give religious connotation to the social divide between haves and have-nots are exploiting the frustration and bitterness of unemployment. Along with the fires of secession, this social bitterness boiled over on the night of December 27, 2007 throughout the country, which is far more dangerous for civil society.
With the ANP victory and the PPP gains in NWFP, the elected representatives are well positioned to mobilise public opinion so that the root causes of terrorism can be addressed. Economic initiatives must be given priority alongwith political initiatives.
The militants have a deadly mindset about fomenting anarchy. For political and economic initiatives to take effect, a platform of peace is necessary. The major part of any population may abhor violence, but extremists thrive on it.
Our para-military Frontier Corps (FC) are woefully outgunned and ill-equipped, without adequate training in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. The latter is also true to an extent for regular troops of the army. And what about motivation, in their thankless task they must have the full support of the elected representatives, not only locally but also on countrywide basis.
Theirs is not to reason why but to fight the war alone and unsung, and their sacrifices must be acknowledged. Some of our politicians take populism beyond sensible parameters, while governance enjoins coming to terms with ground realities.
The electoral process went off relatively smoothly, and the imperfections and aberrations need to be rectified over a period of time, not in any rush. The cause and effect of economic disparity among the provinces has led to political disaffection with the Federation, and must be addressed immediately. After the death of Mohtarma Benazir, the ugly head of secession reared itself briefly.
Asif Zardari acted immediately and firmly to spare the country disintegration of the 1971 kind. To quote a friend of mine: "In the hour of crisis he (Zardari) delivered. And observing all leaders he is definitely much taller."
Initial skepticism aside, Asif Zardari's attempt at national consensus seems a serious commitment to delivering to the masses "roti, bijli aur paani!" probably an unintentional variation of the first PPP slogan, "roti, kapra aur makan!"
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