Beneath The Surface
Is Bangladesh facing a famine?
Recently, the economics department of Jahangirnagar University organised a seminar in memory of its late professor Mafizuddin Ahmed. The title of the seminar was a provocative one: Is Bangladesh facing a famine? Dr. Mahabub Hossain (Brac), Uttam Kumar (CPD), and I were invited to invoke some insights into the hypothesis.
But before revealing the reality, allow me to remind the readers that famine and hunger are not the same, although, erroneously, they are used synonymously. In fact, the former relates to a state of food insecurity where people die of starvation. The latter implies not getting enough to eat. Chronic hunger is a persistent state; transitory hunger a more temporary one.
As we are all aware, famine or hunger is generally the outcome of the lack of purchasing power to access food. Since time immemorial, there were few famines which were caused mainly due to poor production of food grains.
Bangladesh has long ago gone out of the shadow of famine. Technological breakthrough in agriculture, development in rural infrastructure, market integration, extension services, world economic situations, donors' dealings and other developments that took place over the decades, possibly, left famine a thing of the past.
But the chances of its reappearance emanates from three main fears:
* Two consecutive floods and a hit from Sidre that heavily cost agriculture, especially, rice production.
* The alleged government failure to procure food grains from the international market on time and its failure to ensure smooth delivery of agricultural inputs at right prices and at right time.
* The exorbitant prices in the international market. For example, from $250 per ton, the price of rice shot up over two-fold over a period of few months only.
Therefore, it is not an unlikely forecast that Bangladesh could be griped by famine again. The fear of a looming famine seems to be well founded. Nevertheless, both Mahabub Hossain and I tend to reject the hypotheses that we are facing famine in the near future on several grounds and let us mention a few:
* We have a comfortable foreign exchange reserve position to buy food grains immediately from the international market even at an exorbitant price.
* Assuming smooth input supplies, especially of fertiliser and electricity, the increased boro harvest might heal the wounds to a large extent.
* Farmers of Bangladesh have grown up with resilience to cope with crisis through crop diversification and other means.
* International food assistance is more accessible now than before because of the changing world politics.
* Extension of safety nets programs could ease the pressure at least for coming few months.
But that does not men that Bangladesh is out of the woods. We accept the hypothesis that famine looms large on the horizon. But famine or hunger is not a new phenomena. It may be mentioned here that, even when price of rice was below Tk. 15 per kg, about 40 million people of Bangladesh continued to live on less than the energy level required to lead a productive life. They have macro-nutrients (carbohydrates) but are severely short of micro-nutrients.
These people are alive but unable to make a good living from the labour market. These people have been living like the dead (beche ase morar moto). The recent attacks from Sidr and floods and the unscrupulous activities of the business syndicate could only make things worse by putting more people in the bracket of those 40 million.
Allow me to cite a few impressions from my discussions with rickshaw pullers (very poor group), kormocharies (lower income groups), and agricultural and non-agricultural labourers in and around JU campus. Admittedly, the recent rise in the prices of essentials was much higher compared to a fixed wage for lower income groups. This group is, perhaps, the worst hit. The real wages of the sample respondents decreased by 5-10 per cent within span of two months.
Rice bought at Tk. 20 per kg in December 2006 was bought at Tk. 33 per kg very recently -- a rise of 65 per cent. The price of flour and soyabean rose to a level that these families have to reel under severe food insecurity. It is not surprising that more people would very soon join the reserve army of the economically reeling community.
Mr. X (55) pulls a rickshaw at JU campus. This is the main source of income of his family six. He works almost 9 hours a day and earns Tk. 110. Few years back he used to eke out a living on Tk. 70-80 a day. The university students sometimes generously pay the fare as they call him "mama" (maternal uncle).
Based on nutrient recommendations, Mr. X's recommended daily allowance (RDA) would be about 3,000-3,500 calories. He reported that he and his family members cut the consumption of rice (the only source of energy for the poor) in the wake of high rice prices. This means Mr. X will soon fall sick for which he would be forced to work less than 9 hours and earn less than Tk.110. This also means that his family is going to be caught in the "energy-poverty-productivity" trap.
Therefore, the ongoing crisis of price spiral, if it lingers long, is going to be a silent killer and not an open killer like famine. If prices continues to rise unabated and, paripassu, employment opportunities and other options do not open up, the number of those silently killed could swell. This scenario would not be less ugly that that of a famine. Bangladesh is out of the shadow of famine but seems to be poised to be deep into the sea of hunger and deprivation. Both short and long term measures are required to combat it.
Suffice it to say, and as Mahabub Hossain eloquently echoed, staple foods should never be left to the mercy of the market. In fact, it is not so even in the developed world. The government should learn the lesson that it has a positive role to play in the procurement and distribution of staple foods. The government should see that employment is generated in rural areas. This means, full implementation of the ADP is called for. And finally, it should also learn the lesson that only democracy and freedom of press can save us from famine. The sooner it is realised, the better it is for the nation.
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