Going Deeper
Elections in Nepal
ELECTIONS are held to enhance the welfare of the people. In developed countries it is taken for granted that the party that wins majority of votes from an electorate that has given thought to the words spoken by the candidates and the party manifestos forms the government.
In developing countries, one may see the Zimbabwean situation where the people are kept in suspense for the results of an elections held weeks before. More often than not, money, muscle and serpentine entry of political influence in the state institutions play a significant role in the outcome of the elections.
After long struggle against authoritarian rule, the Nepalese have voted the Maoists to power to signal not only the end of the monarchy but also a change in the belief of many Nepalese that the king is a reincarnation of God Vishnu and hence is to be revered. It appears that the roots of centuries old religious tradition is less stronger than the grinding poverty that has been instrumental in the decision of a large number of Nepalese to vote for the Maoists who had declared that the Constituent Assembly that would be formed should decide in favour of the abolition of the monarchy.
Even with a landslide victory the Maoists will find it difficult to dislodge the hold of the monarch on the well-equipped army that reportedly remains loyal to him. But for the tragedy of June 2001, when King Virendra along with the queen and number of members of the royal family were allegedly killed by then Crown Prince Dipendra that catapulted Gyenandra to the throne, the Maoists in all possibility would be still fighting in the jungles and the Nepalese Congress and the United Marxist Leninist Party would be in control of the government.
The general impression that the present king and his playboy son, the crown prince, had a hand in the assassination of the popular King Virendra had sealed the fate of the monarchy, and it was only a matter of time for the monarchy to end. It would, however, be naive to think that the woes of Nepal would disappear with the exit of the king, as the country is mired in abject poverty that in Walt Rostow's analysis of stages of economic development has not gone much further than pre-Newtonian agrarian society.
The UN classifies Nepal as one of the least developed countries with gross domestic product of $ 5.6 billion (2001) and an estimated per capita income of $240. Agriculture dominates the economy accounting for about 79% of the population and the largest contributor to the GDP.
The urban- rural divide is skewed with 88% of the people living in rural areas. Literacy rate is 45%, with gender inequality being very pronounced. Though male-female inequality is fairly pervasive in Asia and Africa it is a guide to the way of life, and often influences the socio-economic life in the developing countries with consequent influence on the political life as well.
The victory of the Maoists in the elections is a reflection of the accumulated frustration of the downtrodden majority who, for generations, remained deprived of the essential and basic amenities of life and was politically marginalised.
But then Nepal, dependent as it is on foreign aid and assistance, can hardly take on an agenda that Chavez could in Venezuela. The US considers the Maoists as a terrorist group. Reportedly, the White House wanted some sort of accommodation between the king and the rebels. But Maoist second-in-command Bhattarai's comment that the royalists would have to flee to the jungles if they go against the peoples' wish as expressed in the elections do not give the impression that the post-election scenario would be peaceful.
If the Bush administration follows the same policy of creating difficulties for the Maoists as it did in Gaza by not recognising the Hammas as the true representatives of the people then the situation in Nepal could become murky.
One could argue that American interference in Nepal would be an affront to the country's sovereignty. But the realists would argue that in the absence of absolute sovereignty in the world today a peaceful co-existence with the global hegemon would help to bind the influence of the Maoists within the borders of Nepal.
One has to take into account the formation of Coordinating Committee of Maoists Parties and Organisations in South Asia (CCOMPOSA) formed in July 2001 by nine Maoist outfits from India, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka (Asia Report 132 International Crisis Group), and the CPN (M)'s crucial role in its formation. CCOMPOSA's twin aims are to struggle "for the achievement of people's power in one's own country" and "fighting against American imperialism and Indian expansionism."
Given India's close relations with Nepal, starting with the Indo-Nepalese Treaty of the fifties, it is doubtful that India would allow Nepalese Maoists to assist Indian Maoist insurgency. One would imagine this was made clear when India unofficially mid-wifed talks held in Delhi among various Nepalese political parties including the Maoists that has finally resulted in the just held elections to the Constituent Assembly now dominated by the Maoists.
Among the key players -- India, US, UK, and the UN -- India has the greatest potential influence and most sophisticated understanding of Nepalese politics. New Delhi's official assessment is that the Nepalese Maoists do not do not provide any significant material help to their fellow brethren across the border.
One must, however, admit that the ownership of this revolutionary change in Nepal belongs to the Nepalese alone, and any claim by external entities of effecting the change beyond encouragement given to the Nepalese could be misunderstood and have negative impact with that entity in Nepal's future relations.
While the return of democracy in Nepal should be a matter of great satisfaction to South Asians, we have to be on guard that the fledgling democracy in Pakistan after a long period of military and quasi-military dictatorship, and expectations for a return to democratic rule in Bangladesh are not threatened by inimical forces or by misdirected politico-economic policies that would further confound the ill effects of natural and man made disasters.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments