Bitter Truth
Overcoming the bleak power generation scenario
THE power generation scenario with the onset of this summer season is going from bad to worse. It has been learnt from the PDB sources that the country's average power generation capacity has come down to 3700 megawatts as against the demand of 4350 megawatts. But unofficially the demand curve exceeds 5000 megawatts. Special Assistant to the Chief Adviser on Power and Energy Professor M.Tamim said in a recent press briefing that the shortage of power at the moment is more due to transmission problem than generational. It has been further learnt that constraints in supplying gas from Bibiyana and Jalalabad gas fields to power plants at Ghorasal, Siddhirganj and Chittagong now stands in the way of enhancing power generation. Shockingly, as Professor Tamim said, the move taken in 2005 to install 4 (four) compressors at the national grid with the assistance of ADB for increasing gas pressure did not materialise. Compounding the problem is the sudden drop of gas extraction from the only offshore gas field Sangu which Cairn Energy plc, the operator of the gas field, failed to ascertain earlier. Further, their effort to extract gas from other wells including Mognama and Hatiya has not met with success.
The country now needs 190 crore cft of gas and production at the moment goes to the extent of 177 crore and 50 lakh cft out of which 68 crore cft is being provided for generation of power but for the power sector to operate without disruption, there is need to raise the gas supply to at least 78 crore cft. Moreover, if the rental power plants, as planned earlier add up another 200 megawatts to the national grid in the next month , power sector will need another 11 crore cft of gas. But the snag in the distribution channel has possibly shattered all hopes for a brighter future.
Undeniably true, energy plays an important role in accelerating economic growth as much as it serves as an important tool in providing basic needs like food, shelter, health care, safe water, sanitation, education and access to job for either an individual, or the whole community. 'Sustainable human development' that means economic growth through equitable distribution of benefits can only be ensured through the availability of energy needs of the nation. Reports have it that in developing countries where per capita commercial energy consumption is below 1000 kg of oil equivalent (KGOE) per year, poverty predominates with the concomitant vices of illiteracy, population growth and infant mortality.
It is worth recalling the planning process that leaders of most of the advanced countries including Soviet Union adopted after the revolution : Soon after the Russian Revolution, the Soviet Union declared that education and electricity -- the two E's -- were the eyes of the country. In a similar vein, most countries in Africa and Asia after their liberation from the colonial rulers in a bid to rebuild their countries waged war on two fronts: education and electricity, considered most vital for any country to rise above the depths of abysmal poverty situation.
Bangladesh is different. Unfortunately for us, the trauma experienced during the liberation war and the hope and optimism exhibited during the initial years did not ignite us to rebuild the country with meticulous planning and vision. In consequence the country lurched from one crisis to another.
Shockingly, it was because of bad governance, closed vision and sinister greed of the functionaries in the past, specially in the last five years that the whole country turned into a crisis zone with people crying for power to irrigate their fields. And now Munshiganj and Chandpur people find no ways to save their potatoes from getting perished for lack of power in the cold storage. Appallingly, it is only due to inadequate supply of power and frequent load shedding, that a sizable portion of the 20 lakh metric tons of potatoes already put in the cold storage will be wasted, let alone another 50 lakh metric tons that would perish on the road side. The situation came to such a pass because the country's power generation and more specifically the distribution system, as Prof. Tamim has said in a recent press briefing, remains very poor at almost all the places because the immediate past government never undertook a timely project to upgrade either the generating plants or the transmission system.
As per the plan of the government at that time, the private sector sponsors were expected to set up about 45 small power plants and the government would purchase electricity from these plants at a negotiated tariff. But objections were raised by the WB about the selection process on the issue of transparency as the selectors were given discretionary power to qualify or disqualify a sponsor. Even these days as reports published in the newspapers indicate the rental power plants that were supposed to add 260 megawatts by May, 08 are unlikely to meet that demand. Only a lone 20 MW plant at Bogra might go into operation during this time frame.
With fossil fuel becoming scarcer and its price shooting up almost every day, the planners and decision makers must look for alternative source of power to keep the present decrepit and stagnant economy running. And the answer is perhaps blowing in the wind.
Wind is now the world's fastest growing power source -- a high tech challenge to the coal mines, oil rigs, gas wells, nuclear reactors and hydroelectric dams. Experts say wind could provide up to 12 per cent of the earth's electricity within two decades. J. Michael Davis, chief of the renewable Energy programmes at the US Department of Energy said enthusiastically at the beginning of the new millennium " Today's models in the US are capable of meeting 10 per cent of America's energy demand and within 30 years, newer versions could provide for a quarter of the US's power needs. Reports have it that machines that produced energy at 7 cents per KW in California in 1996 have now brought down the cost to 4 cents. More advanced designs are likely to stave off another cent.
American technology in wind power dates back to1900, when most of the electricity on US farms was provided by windmills. To meet an ever increasing demand due to increasing number of households as well as to safeguard the entrenched interest of the administration in oil business, these were replaced during the 1930s when Rural Electrification Board wired the countryside. But the technology staged a comeback when oil embargoes and environmental concerns prodded the politicians to look for alternative sources. With trials one after another, California in particular became the nursery of advanced technology.
In their case it is the choice of technology, in our case it is the desperate need to opt for alternative source of power when oil import price continues to shoot up every day and indigenous gas resources do not seem to be as promising as touted in the 90s. At the moment exploitation of wind energy or at the farthest end tapping of solar energy seems most feasible and a viable option in view of the availability of vast coastal areas of the country that offer bright prospect of harnessing power through setting up of wind mills in those locations.
The promise that wind offers is tantalizing. Windmills generate renewable power, so called because the source of the energy, wind is continually renewed by nature. So is the case of solar cells, which are powered by the sun -- geothermal systems which use the earth's heat and hydroelectricity which flows from dams. Interestingly, India has switched over to second position achieving production capacity of more than 3000 MW through harnessing wind power. Encouragingly, technological advances that are now available are likely to make wind power more appealing. Engineers plan to boost the tower so that machines can escape ground turbulence and tap more consistent winds. Lighter materials that are now available could reduce the cost of building the towers. And researchers are looking into ways to store excess energy produced during windy periods so that it could be used during calmer days or during peak energy demand.
Speaking about solar energy, it has already gained acceptability. During my visit to Sidr-hit areas namely, Shyamnagore, Gabura, Patakhali and Neel Dumur in the Satkhira district bordering the Sundarbans last November, I found houses and shrimp hatcheries powered by solar panel provided by Grameen Shakti. Millions of rural homes in developing countries get electricity from solar cells. "The potential is enormous," says Anil Caabral, an energy specialist for the World Bank, which has helped finance 500,000 residential solar systems from Argentina to Sri Lanka . It is true the wattage is low and price structure is still very high, but left with no other alternatives affluent people and business communities have gone for it.
Undeniably true, problems of power are not created in just one summer but are an accumulation of years of neglect and bad performance. If the government of the bygone days has failed to realise it, the government that be or the people or parties that are vying for power must realise that energy or power is the prime mover of a modern state and investors from home and abroad will be shying away as long as the state of our energy has not improved..
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