Letter From America
Barack Obama over the threshold
BARACK Obama crossed an important threshold on Tuesday, May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon held their primaries. Hillary won Kentucky, while Obama won Oregon. Although he lost the Kentucky primary by more than two to one (65% to 30%), the pledged delegates Obama won from Kentucky put him over the top. The primaries and the caucuses were fought to win 3253 delegates.
With his delegates tally from Kentucky and Oregon, Obama now has close to 1,650; much more than half. Hillary is not going to overtake Obama in pledged delegates ever.
There are also 795 automatic or super-delegates to be won. Thus far, 305 super-delegates have endorsed Obama, and 278 have chosen Hillary. 212 remain uncommitted. The only way Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic Party nomination now is for the remaining uncommitted (and some committed) super-delegates to overturn the popular verdict expressed through the primaries and caucuses and endorse her over Obama.
Judging by the steady trickle of super-delegates opting for Obama everyday, such a reversal in unlikely.
Not that Hillary is not trying. In her Kentucky victory speech, she addressed the uncommitted super-delegates directly. Saying that she was best "positioned" to win in November, Hillary claimed that she had won more popular votes; as though the primary process is about winning popular votes, not delegates!
Her popular vote claim is not exactly true. In Hillaryland, votes cast in the Florida and Michigan primaries, which do not count because they broke party rules, are valid.
Neither Hillary nor Obama campaigned in either of the states. Obama's name was not on the ballot in Michigan; so he received zero votes. Even counting Michigan and Florida, Obama has won more popular votes than Hillary. So Hillary's last argument is that votes cast in the thirteen or so caucuses, almost all of which Obama won, should not count because those are not primaries!
Democratic Party rules say that the candidate winning 2,026 pledged and unpledged delegates is the winner. Not so fast, says Hillary. The number is 2,210, because Michigan and Florida must be counted, says Hillary.
So, Hillary is unwilling to play by the rules everyone agreed on before the contest. She wants everyone to play by her rules, just as the contest is winding down. There are three more primaries to go: Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1, where Hillary is favoured, and Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates) on June 3, where Obama is favoured.
As of now, Obama has a total of about 1,960 delegates. He needs 65 more to clinch the nomination.
Hillary's landslide in West Virginia on May 13 was eclipsed by former rival John Edwards' endorsement of Obama the very next day. And Mr. West Virginia himself, the former Senate majority leader and the current longest serving US Senator, Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia, endorsed Barack Obama this week.
A pall fell over the nation as the news of Senator Edward Kennedy's malignant brain tumour hit the nation on May 20. Both Hillary and Obama heaped profuse praise on the Senator from Massachusetts, who has represented his state since 1962.
In her victory speech, Hillary played the good cop and the bad cop. On one hand she promised to fight tooth and nail for the nomination, on the other hand she talked of party unity. She complimented Obama, but also stressed that she would support her party's nominee, "whoever she is!"
Obama scheduled his victory rally in Des Moines, Iowa, instead of Oregon as a way of "coming full circle," and launching the general election campaign in a place where his presidential Odyssey started with a victory in the Iowa caucus in January, and which is likely to be competitive state come November.
"Tonight, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America," he said.
Obama paid tribute to Hillary: "The road here has been long, and that is partly because we've travelled it with one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for the office."
Pundits are puzzling over what keeps Hillary in the race. Hillary and Bill have complained about the press's sexism. Media experts point out that Hillary is trying to have it both ways. She wants to project the image of a tough leader; however, when the press is tough on her, like a chameleon she turns into a frail damsel under attack.
If anything, the media has given Hillary plenty of slack. Imagine if Obama had lost eleven primaries and caucuses in a row like Hillary did in March, the clamour for him to drop out would have been deafening! The press did not say a word about why Hillary was still in the race then.
At the beginning of the campaign, Hillary, with extremely high negatives, was considered an elitist. After John Edwards dropped out, she adopted his populist message and became a spokesperson of the white working class.
Hillary, the second shift worker, resonated well with the white working class voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and much more so in West Virginia and Kentucky. To Hillary's consternation, just as she has found her voice, the race is ending.
The best the former "inevitable nominee" can hope for now is a slot on the ticket as Obama's running mate. That, too, if Obama would have her.
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