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Obama's dream
CONSISTENT with his belief that one should have the audacity to hope, Senator Barack Obama has eventually emerged as the first Afro-Caribbean to be the presumptive nominee of a major US political party. It has been an uphill task but he has hung on doggedly. He has soldiered down the campaign trail, with stops to explain, denounce and detach himself from some of his surrogates along the way.
He has had to withstand criticism from different quarters about his association with a controversial pastor, his relative inexperience related to national security, his own racial background and even the possibility that he might be a Muslim. Obama has had to overcome all of them.
It has taken numerous primaries and caucuses to determine who will represent the Democratic Party in the coming US Presidential election. Nevertheless, determination and grit have overcome innuendo.
As someone noted the other day, race has always been the wild card in American politics. Barack Obama, in this context has reshuffled the deck. The junior Senator from Illinois knows that he is continuing to defy history, and expectations.
Obama, the son of a white woman from Kansas, settled in Hawaii, and a man from a small village in Kenya, was the first African-American President of the Harvard Law Review. That was testament to his intellectual abilities. He was also the third African-American since Reconstruction to be elected to the US Senate.
For African-Americans who have lived through the civil rights struggles of Selma, Alabama and Rosa Parks, Obama today, for the first time since Rev Martin Luther King Jr. has become the symbol of struggle and success, progress and change. An analyst has correctly noted that 'few at the back of the bus would have predicted', even as late as end of 2007, Obama's meteoric rise in politics from his humble upbringings.
It has been 145 years since the Emancipation Proclamation, but in the span of a single lifetime much has changed in the USA. This transformation within that country has been proven by Obama's campaign. Today, many young people in the USA as well as all over the world see Obama as 'Generation Next' -- multiethnic, educated and global -- a politician who happens to be black. To them, he's more about the future than the past. It has now reached a point where Obama's vice presidential search team is busy examining the credentials of a broad spectrum of candidates as potential running mates. It includes US politicians (e.g. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Senator Jim Webb of Virginia) and former top military commander (General Wesley Clark).
Sen Hillary Clinton, whose tenacious refusal to surrender the nomination contest turned the Democratic race into one of the most nail-biting in modern US political history, has also indicated that she would be willing to sign up on a joint ticket. Other possible front-runners include former presidential hopefuls Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson and John Edwards.
Obama has indicated that his final decision will depend not only on the impressions of the search team but also on whether other influential Democratic people (e.g. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid) consider the candidate with "respect" and whether the candidate has "standing with their colleagues." It will be a difficult task and quite complex. The other option of course is to simply choose Hillary Clinton and her associated baggage.
One thing is however clear. Obama is unlikely to respond to pressure from others about his choice of a running mate.
The US political process and the business of selecting a Presidential candidate -- both Republican and Democrat -- has been riveting till now. It has been fascinating and has attracted the attention of the world. Unlike many other countries, where the business of choosing the main contenders for the top job is undertaken behind closed doors, after a few days or weeks of campaigning, the US drama has grabbed prime time headlines.
Mr Obama till now has demonstrated charisma, coolness under fire and an impressive understanding of the transforming power of technology in modern politics. I believe however that securing the nomination has only been the first significant step. The real litmus test will be the next few months leading up to the main election in November.
Obama, a former law teacher will have to convince America's middle-class voters and those who voted for Hillary that he understands their concerns. He has won the nomination on the basis of having put together a novel coalition of blacks, young people and liberal professionals, rather than the more traditional blue-collar workers. He now has to exhibit more inclusiveness so that his legions are seen to be also part of the poor white mainstream. That will probably be the only way to stand up against the Bushless Republicans.
It also has to be noted that till now, for Obama, it has been relatively a 'policy-light' contest within his party. Generalities have been the norm in terms of proposed solutions. All that has now changed. Obama now has to take the fight to McCain.
'The Economist' (published from London), in its issue of 7th June has stated that both candidates appear to agree on certain points (a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions and a more multilateral approach to diplomacy) but there are also major disagreements. Obama will now need to highlight them so that existing prejudice can be swept aside and the hidden opportunities revealed.
The difference is most on Iraq. McCain has backed this war from the beginning. He is now proposing to stay the course there, no matter how long it takes. He is also hoping that the tide has finally turned there against the militants. In this regard he continues to parade the reduced fatalities in US army ranks over the past few months. Senator Obama on the other hand opposed the war from the start and has now pledged to withdraw all combat troops within 16 months after his victory in the elections. McCain has described such a time-period as 'precipitous'. I believe that Obama has to be very careful in the manner in which he spells out details about his future plans regarding the complex process of withdrawal. A false step or assumption might handicap him later on. In this regard, he also has to remember that Iraq has slightly receded as a political priority as compared to the growing recession, increasing unemployment and the downturn in the US economy.
Right now, with his open expression of friendship for Israel, he has shown that he wants to pursue the path of being "smart" versus "tough" in matters of foreign policy. He however needs to be a bit careful about this. He has to remember that the world is focused on him and the last thing that they want to see is a President Obama, who is unable to be even handed, in his engagement with international issues.
US voters battered by falling house prices and rising oil prices are watching very carefully how an Obama presidency can bring them better dividends. McCain has already offered conservative supply-side solutions. He has stressed on deregulation, free trade, competitiveness and the use of market mechanisms to tackle most problems including healthcare, education and the falling real value of pensions. Hopefully Obama can also adopt a more aggressive approach. He could start by pointing out to the electorate that the USA is already a highly deregulated economy. He might follow this up by further tapping into the general discontent within the US middle class and blue-collar workers about globalization and the 'shipping out' of jobs abroad. Such a strategy could however be a double-edged sword. It will gain him popularity in Main Street as opposed to Wall Street in the short run. This format of protectionism will however also make him more controversial among US multi-nationals and countries like China and India with whom an Obama presidency will need to engage very closely.
Obama might also increase his domestic acceptance factor by sharpening his focus on how he precisely plans to spend more on education and training and expand the benefits of healthcare for the poor and the unemployed.
Latest polls indicate that he is slowly beginning to win over the crucial support of women and seniors. They had staunchly remained, till now, in Hillary's camp. Their possible presence on his side in the future will be important if he is to win the swing states. Obama ought to win easily in November. However, this will only be possible if he can unite behind him a large portion of those who voted for Mrs. Clinton in the primaries.
Obama's biggest problem, even now, is his 'exotic background' (as interestingly described by 'The Economist'). That has made it that much more difficult for many mainstream conservative white Americans to relate to him. Consequently, false suspicions still continue to find its way into the Internet chatter about him. That has been unfortunate. It has raised questions about the degree of fairness that is supposed to exist within the mind-set of American voters. Nevertheless, that is the reality, and a possible Obama victory in November will largely depend on how much he can make voters feel comfortable with him.
Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador and can be reached at mzamir@dhaka.net
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