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Indo-US nuclear treaty: Uncertainty looms large
EFFORTS for the implementation of the Indo-United States civilian nuclear agreement have suffered another setback with the crucial talks between the Indian government and its leftists allies getting postponed, much to the dismay of the enthusiasts of the accord. The parleys, that were expected to narrow down the differences between the two sides on the issue, did not take place last Tuesday, understandably because of the fear of failure to hammer out the differences.
Consequently, the Indo-US accord is still in trouble, with little sign that the Indian leftists would endorse it and facilitate its forward movement.
On the other hand, time is also passing for the Bush administration, as the accord needs to be passed by the Congress ahead of the November presidential elections. There is not much opposition to the deal in the US, although there is criticism. On the American side, there is no major problem in implementing the agreement signed in 2006, but the failure on the Indian end has stalled it.
The much-talked about treaty has been clearly hanging in the balance for sometime, even though both countries had been expecting that the obstacles would be overcome and the accord would be put in practice. But no tangible progress has being made towards its implementation, and Washington has alerted New Delhi that the "clock is ticking" on the issue.
The deal, seen by many as a "landmark" one in their bilateral relations, was agreed in principle when president George W. Bush visited India in 2005.The two sides later met several times to finalise the details. But the agreement remains far from being implemented mainly because of problems with the Indian side. It is not that the Indian government is showing scant interest or any sign of unwillingness; in fact, New Delhi is set to go ahead with the accord, which it considers as a big achievement for India.
But the government's supporters, the leftists, are not favourably disposed to such a development with the United States. On the contrary, they that feel the Manmohan Singh government is taking India "too close" to the US and, obviously, the communists cannot relish such a situation.
Since the support of the leftists is critically important for the government that falls short of absolute majority in the parliament Dr. Singh's administration is faced with a difficult situation on the matter. On one hand, it wants to implement the agreement since it feels that it would benefit India in many ways, on the other, the government cannot ignore the sensitivities of its supporters. It is in this context the scheduled talks between the government and its supporters failed to take place, adding elements of further uncertainty.
The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has completed more than four years of the five-year term, with general elections scheduled early next year. It is a minority government, relying totally on the support of the leftists, who attached no strict conditions to the government for their cooperation.
The communist party of India (Marxist),the main leftist force, and its allies are opposed to the US, obviously on ideological lines. They are not supposed to endorse a close relationship with Washington, but the government of Dr. Manmohan Singh has developed deeper ties with the US.
The civilian atomic cooperation accord is an eyesore for the leftists, which is no surprise. Once it appeared that differences on the issue might even lead to collapse of the government if the leftists chose to withdraw their support for the ruling alliance. The UPA does not have the requisite majority in the house, but it formed the government with the support of the communists, who have 60 members.
Many thought that this outside support would not last long since the leftists do not see eye to eye on many issues with the government, even though they have a common approach on the issue of secularism and some other broad matters. Such an assessment has largely been belied since the understanding remained somewhat unhindered, although some issues did create some misunderstanding between the two in the past, but not to the extent of causing any major problem. The much-vaunted nuclear deal is proving to be a difficult nut to crack, with the two sides taking diametrically opposite positions on the subject.
The world's largest democracy has been experiencing coalition culture for sometime past, and it is now almost inconceivable that any single party can form the government. Gone are the days when a single political organisation could muster enough support in the lower house of parliament and stake a claim to form a government on its own. Even the major parties these days seldom dream of having an absolute majority in the 545-member lower house of parliament (Lok Sahba). They either seek to reach electoral understanding before the voting, or look for like-minded parties in the event of necessity to form the government as an absolute majority is often lacking.
The previous NDA government, and its successor the UPA alliance, all fit in the same milieu of coalition culture. The coming together of different political forces for the purpose of ruling is not unusual in parliamentary democracy, and may come through compulsion or political understanding.
The UPA and the leftists forged broader understanding mainly to prevent the BJP-led former ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), widely seen as communal, from coming to power again. But the bottom line is that they have many differences on many issues -- particularly the policy towards the United States. The leftists even criticised the Indian government for taking a pro-Washington stance on America's conflict with Iran.
Leftist leaders, particularly the CPM heavyweight Prakash Karat, are known to oppose the accord tooth-and-nail, while some others leaders from the leftists citadel, West Bengal, blow hot and cold on the issue. Those relatively lenient on the matter feel that withdrawal of support from the government on the nuclear issue would result in the exit of the Manmohan government, and this would not eventually help the secular forces as the BJP and allies may get an opportunity to stage a come back to power.
Likewise, some leaders in the ruling UPA also feel that too much enthusiasm about the nuclear deal will anger the leftists and a kind of "go slow" may help the overall interest of the coalition, because the collapse of the government would be a setback for the coalition.
But many in India favour the deal, and some key figures in the government are keen to go ahead with it, regardless of their communist allies' sentiments. It appears that a firm decision on the important and sensitive issue is proving difficult for the Indian government. Both Sonia Gandhi, the chairperson of the ruling UPA and undeniably the most influential person in shaping the policies -- albeit not directly -- and prime minister Manmohan Singh are very keen to implement the accord.
Several phases need to be crossed before it becomes operational, but problems with the leftists have been thwarting the government plans. The two sides have formed a joint committee with external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee as its head to thrash out differences, but no headway could be made.
As fresh talks have failed to take place, a new date June 25, has been fixed for the crucially important discussions. However, analysts are sceptical about the success of the parleys unless the leftists make some major concessions, which is largely unexpected.
The communists, as it appears, will not disturb the government, but are totally unwilling to fall-in with the government's pro-American policy. This is not surprising, and it makes the fate of Indo-US nuclear accord uncertain -- at least its passage in India during the term of present government looks bleak.
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