Post Breakfast
Meeting the sensitive challenges in Afghanistan
MORE than six years on, the demanding marathon in Afghanistan appears to be testing the resources, and the will of the runners. Recent incidents have made it quite clear that Afghanistan's fate is on the edge and that the international community needs to engage itself more politically, rather than just militarily. At the same time they should ensure that Afghans themselves are in the driving seat. It is also becoming apparent to the NATO policy planners that they should, if possible, work jointly with the United Nations and the US so that the international community speaks to the Afghan government with one voice.
The recently convened NATO Bucharest Summit, after intensive discussion, concluded that over the last six years, the international community and the Afghan people had accomplished many democratic milestones. They referred in this context to the setting up of the Loya Jirga, drawing up of the Constitution and the holding of the presidential and parliamentary elections. It was also generally agreed that women and children now live a better life.
The meeting, in general terms, also pointed out, that in most other ways, the situation had deteriorated and that there was a raging insurgency in the south and the east. It was also felt that the Taliban had re-emerged, threatening NATO and the security forces and cutting off swathes of people from the rest of the country. Views were also expressed that institution building had stalled and that corruption was eating its way into the fabric of the state. Some analysts also commented that a criminalised economy like the one presently in place has made economic development impossible, and any progress made has been very unevenly distributed.
Given this depressing picture, one would tend to think that without NATO and EU action, Afghanistan could revert to being the failed state that it was before 2001.
I believe that this prevailing delicate situation in Afghanistan needs a more political approach. There could be a joint partnership between NATO and the EU and more coordinated action on the ground. The Afghan government also has to reach out to the more pragmatic members of the Taliban. It is crucial that the international community changes its approach to counter-narcotics, as well as to aerial spraying of the poppy fields. This course of action seems to have alienated the population. A more effective strategy might be to target the mere 40 to 60 people who are behind the entire country's drugs trade.
It might also be a good idea to seek a more regional solution. If required, Pakistan (as a high percentage of attacks in Afghanistan originate from there) and India should both be brought within the process. This could be timed to coincide with the efforts that might be initiated when the new US administration takes office.
There is also particular need to coordinate the work of the EU, United Nations, World Bank and NATO in Afghanistan. It is rumoured that President Karzai currently receives so many messages from different organisations that he ignores most of them. One hopes that the new UN Envoy to Afghanistan, Norwegian Kai Eide, will be able to coordinate all these activities more effectively and give the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) a higher profile. This is vital. In this context, Eide should also assist President Karzai in taking more responsibility in fighting corruption, ending the culture of impunity, working more cooperatively with the Parliament and concentrating on building up the government's institutions.
Similarly, the international community must also follow through on its commitment to the support of political institutions and in the implementation of the rule of law. This is required to combat that abusive power holders who prey on the local population because of ethnic or sectarian grounds. One knows that some among the international community had hoped for a quick cheap war and a quick cheap peace but that has not been the case. So now, the time has come to prepare their agenda for the next five years. They have to be there for the long haul.
At present, Afghanistan remains one of the most highly centralised states, lacking any decentralized government structures, with a weak legislature and no real political parties. This is a seriously flawed arrangement. The international community must hold the Afghan government to its promise of creating effective democratic institutions, introducing proper accountability and integrating service delivery at the local level. Unless this is done, good governance cannot return.
The world cannot forget that Afghanistan is the fourth poorest country in the world. Failure in Afghanistan would threaten global security, increase the drugs problem and destabilise the region. That is the last thing that one would want.
The sensitivity in the current situation in Afghanistan has been underlined very well in a recent report issued by the US State Department. It appears that the Taliban has strengthened its military and technical capabilities even while suffering heavy combat losses. According to the "Country Reports on Terrorism 2007", the Taliban-led insurgency remains a capable, determined, and resilient threat to stability and to the expansion of government authority, particularly in the Pashtun south and east. The report's findings have since been reaffirmed through several attacks in different provinces in Afghanistan. This has included the targetting of NATO patrols and suicide bombings (140 suicide-bomb attacks in 2007) and increased use of improvised explosive devices. It has led to fatalities in the south of Kabul, in southern Kandahar province (killing eight civilians and wounding six others) and in Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan.
The number of terror attacks has increased from 969 in 2006 to 1,127 last year, and the number of people killed, injured or kidnapped as the result of terrorism rose from 3,557 in 2006 to 4,673 in 2007. These are grim statistics. The Taliban operations have become increasingly aggressive and sophisticated, and their ability to obtain al Qaeda support and recruit soldiers from the Taliban base of rural Pashtuns appear to be undiminished. It is also being alleged that the Taliban are funding their terror activities with money from supporters in neighbouring Pakistan, from narcotics trafficking and kidnappings (which has increased in recent weeks).
I agree with other analysts that this gradual rise in militancy in Afghanistan is also because of the government not being able to carry forward visible economic development, reconstruction and rehabilitation in the war-torn, poverty stricken hinterland outside Kabul. Too much emphasis is being given only to Kabul and a few other urban centres.
The international community has to clearly understand that Afghanistan will not be won by military means alone. In this context there have been some very critical observations by the Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief (ACBAR). They have pointed out that some $10 billion in aid promised to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban has still to be delivered. It has also been noted that two-thirds of the aid received bypasses the Afghan government. Forty percent of the aid allegedly also goes back to donor countries in consultant fees and expatriate pay. As a result, ACBAR warns that the prospects for peace in Afghanistan are being undermined. It may be mentioned here that Oxfam is one of the important partners in ACBAR.
Research has revealed that more is being spent on short-term projects as a lever to win people over as part of military counter-insurgency strategy. This is being done at the expense of longer-term development.
These ACBAR findings echo the feelings of Afghan people who feel disappointed by a lack of tangible progress despite the billions of dollars they are told have been heading into the country. That, I feel, is not an ideal situation. There will now be some encouragement after the latest Paris aid meeting. However the proof of the pudding will be in eating.
We in Bangladesh are committed to the emergence of a stable and democratic Afghanistan. It is now a member state of SAARC. In that context, SAARC should take more interest and meaningful initiatives towards constructive engagement with the Afghan authorities, particularly, in the sectors of education, healthcare and microcredit.
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