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Manmohan government survives … for now
EVEN before the dust raised by the confidence vote in the Indian parliament, that saw the survival of the Dr. Manmohan Singh government in tense and dramatic conditions, could settle down, unexpected incidents were unfolding in the political scene of the world's largest democracy.
The gravity of such occurrences is such that the outcome of the confidence vote has not ended the speculations on the raging suspense about the shape of things, but new developments are unfolding, indicating an interesting phase in the days ahead even though the national elections are not round the corner.
Any vote of confidence is understandably a matter of enormous interest in any Westminster type of democracy, and the balloting in the lower house of the Indian parliament (Lok Sabha) was no exception. On the contrary, the result of the voting was so unpredictable that excitement and curiosity had reached fever pitch till the outcome was announced.
In 1999, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government lost the confidence of the house by a single vote, and at that time too the matter was the cynosure of all eyes. This time, the interest was much more for the simple reason that a much talked about agreement with the world's only superpower was at the heart of the nerve-wracking political developments, and discussions and debates surrounding the confidence vote transcended Indian boundaries.
The balloting in 1999 was essentially a matter of domestic developments. But, this time, the ramifications of the situation were far wider since a very sensitive and widely debated issue was inextricably linked with the existence of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government headed by the Congress. As such, the confidence vote has myriad implications for Indian and the international arena.
The voting was seen as "too close to call," but it turned to be an easier win for the government than many had anticipated. The incidents that occurred in the house, like flaunting of cash by the opposition BJP members charging that these were given as a bribe by the ruling high-ups, were also something never seen before.
Government circles denied allegations that Sonia Gandhi's political adviser Ahmed Patel and the ruling coalition's new found ally Samajwadi Party's Amar Singh offered these bribes. But the allegations -- regardless of their authenticity -- represents sordid conditions hitherto unheard of in India at such a level.
Many had called this as an ignominy for democracy, and a large section of the media also smelled a rat in the cross-party voting by several opposition members. It is difficult to vouch for the rationale of the cash that was shown on the floor of the house, but there is hardly any doubt that "horse-trading" did take place in the critically important voting.
As expected, the BJP has expelled eight of its parliament members for voting against the party line. Two members of the Tengu Desam party also faced the same punishment. This will undoubtedly have an impact on the democratic pattern of India.
But more interesting is the melodramatic developments relating to the leftists, who are credited for strict adherence to party diktats. The leftists, whose withdrawal of support from the UPA government triggered the confidence vote, acted swiftly against senior party leader Somnath Chatterjee, who presided over the voting.
His CPI (M) party wanted him to relinquish the Speaker's chair and vote against the motion, which Chatterjee was unwilling to abide because of his "neutral" position. It is clear that the communists do not take things kindly when members go against party discipline, no matter how important they are.
No doubt, the win in the confidence vote is a big shot in the arm for the UPA government, particularly for alliance chief Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Singh. They are ardent supporters of the nuclear deal, which still has to see the light of day since clock is ticking for the Bush administration.
Barring the time constraint, there is no major obstacle for the American side. The hurdles are on the Indian side, and the government has certainly overcome a major one, although it not certain if the accord will finally be implemented. Nevertheless, the ruling alliance has survived a test of paramount significance, and it can now go ahead with it.
Would the election have taken place earlier had the government lost the confidence motion? The conditions also brought strange bedfellows together, like the communally perceived BJP and the secular leftists voting against the secular government.
For the communists, they were hell-bent on preventing the government from taking the country too close to the Americans, and for the BJP and allies it was opposition for the sake of opposition.
Indian politics is witnessing a polarisation as a new front has also sprung up in the backdrop of the confidence vote with secular parties including BSP of Mayawati of Uttar Pradesh, who aspires to become prime minister. Other developments as well are also discernible.
All these promise an eventful phase in Indian politics in days to come, where clean politics and ethical standard in public life will also be a factor against the backdrop of the confidence vote.
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