Post Breakfast
Consolidating democracy in Pakistan
FOR more than sixty years democracy has not always been the assured aspect in a Pakistani's life. It has been like a zebra crossing -- now you see it and now you don't. It is also this aspect that continues to interest some of us who have had experience of Pakistani governance in the past. We tend to follow any transition or evolution in the Pakistani political landscape with care. Consequently, the first few months after the recent elections in Pakistan, the continuing terrorist acts within that country and the inability of the government to usher in a "new dawn" in Pakistani politics have been a source of disappointment.
I have watched the hesitant steps that the new government of the PPP-PML-N governing coalition have taken to strengthen the legal system (so necessary for state building), develop a new economic model, strengthen state institutions and improve basic services. In this context, it would be pertinent to point out that even today, after nearly six months of the February elections, fragmented disagreements exist about reinstating suspended members of the judiciary. This is impeding movement forward within the body politic of that nation.
It would be important to recall here the three important events that took place during a "traumatic" 2007 in Pakistan -- the country's declaration of a state of emergency; the suspension of the 60 judges; and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, which has been described by some emotional Pakistani analysts as being similar to 'the assassination of President Kennedy and 9/11 rolled into one'. These events exposed the fault lines in Pakistan, and the fact that it has failed to develop into a moderate Islamic state, and was still dominated by a 'predatory' elite which constitutes less than 1 per cent of the population.
Pakistan's challenge, as I see it, is to be able to address the weak foundations of democracy and rebuild the state. It would be pertinent to note here that over the last 60 years, the military has intervened in that country four times and the courts have legalized such illegal intrusion every time. Pakistan military expert Stephen Cohen has interestingly described it as "The generals can't govern Pakistan, but they will not let anyone else do so."
Recent riots in front of the Stock Exchanges in Karachi and Islamabad have demonstrated once again that there has been superficial growth but there is space for considerable improvement within Pakistan's economic paradigm. While there has been over 5 per cent growth per annum, this has relied mainly on foreign inflows, leading to a "casino economic model" that has neglected domestic savings and exports. There has also been very little investment in human capital and comparative failure in protecting local industry. Another challenge has been to inject good governance into a currently dysfunctional system. There has also been little investment in basic services, such as education. I am making such assessments on the basis of comparisons with its archrival and neighbour India.
Another of Pakistan's over-riding problem has been its politics. That is geared towards the fulfilling of short-term US interests. Recent events have clarified that such a path is resented by a large section of the local Pakistani population. This has created in turn, deep structural governance problems.
Pakistan's importance as an ally of USA and its expected role in fighting the Taleban has now emerged as an integral part of US presidential politics. Various statements by the US political and Afghan leaderships have brought into question the continued military assistance being provided to Pakistan by external actors. Queries are now being made as to how the USA and Europe should engage with the newly elected government as to questions of strategy and security.
On the security question, the new government has said that -- (a) it will not hold talks with anyone who refuses to lay down their arms, (b) that its territory will not be used against any other country, and that (c) foreign terrorists will not be allowed to hide out in Pakistan. Unfortunately, the bombing of the Indian diplomatic mission in Kabul and allegations by the Afghan government has not added to Pakistan's credibility. Recent US air strikes on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border (in the Federally administered Tribal Areas -- FATA -- where Pakistani soldiers were killed) have also not helped matters. These strikes have in fact created more political instability.
As it stands now, the West's interest in Pakistan appears to mainly centre round sorting out Afghanistan, a concern that Pakistan probably shares. There is however a slight catch in this equation. The Army in Pakistan possibly wants a peaceful and stable neighbour, but it also wants an Afghanistan that has not tilted towards India.
It is a very difficult situation. However, it is this complexity that should encourage the EU as well as the USA to make a more intensive constructive engagement. This is not the time for recriminations but for a positive approach. The EU can help Pakistan to make the structural reforms it needs, and member states such as Spain, Portugal, Greece and Poland could share their experience of moving from military/authoritarian rule to a democracy. The EU needs to recognize that the stakes are high in Pakistan and the rest of the region, and should offer it the support it needs. Pakistan stands at a strategic global crossroads and could easily deteriorate to become a seedbed for terrorism and extremism with more and more military intervention.
I feel that the EU will gain from increasing its engagement in Pakistan. I agree with a comment recently made in Brussels by Mr. Mahmood a Pakistani analyst. He has noted that a successful Pakistani democracy will demonstrate to the 1.3 billion Muslims worldwide -- including 20 million in the EU -- that "democracy works and is the best guarantee against terrorism, injustice and hopelessness". The EU, through such a move can be an engine for reform and a soft power.
It would be important to recognize at this point that the elections in Pakistan exceeded expectations by being transparent, free and fair and returned the country to a quasi-civilian government. Nevertheless, a danger still exists whereby the merger of three trends -- political uncertainty, economic downturn and security threats -- could create the perfect storm in Pakistan.
The other important partner in consolidating democracy in Pakistan could be the United States. Instead of just reiterating the need to fight terrorists on the border with Afghanistan, the US could support also the creation of a truly free press and judiciary and a vibrant civil society. Time has come for the US to put together a comprehensive plan to deal with support for services like schools and health clinics. It could also consider stopping its micro-management of Pakistan's affairs.
Presidential candidate Obama has mentioned about the need to increase non-security aid to Pakistan. I agree with such an assumption. This could be in the sector of institution building. The US has to engage with Pakistan on its important issues, and accept that the US is there for the long haul. While doing so, they need to take a regional approach on security issues and cross-border infiltration between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This will need opening the windows towards Iran. There has been in recent times a bit of thaw regarding Iran among US policy planners. This could be widened.
Pakistan has many challenges. The foremost among these is the high expectations Pakistanis and others from South Asia have of their new civilian government. There is a need in this regard to build confidence in the parliamentary system, build respect for the Prime Minister and help the Pakistani political parties to turn from fiefdoms into democratic parties.
Pakistan has been ruled for more than half its existence by the armed forces and the results have been mixed to say the least. They now have a democratic government. Within the South Asian context they deserve all our support. This will minimise the possibility of subsequent spread of radicalism and extremism from Pakistan to the rest of its neighbours.
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