Bottom Line
US-Russia relations hit a new low
AFTER their first meeting in 2001, President Bush said that he had looked into the eyes of President Putin and got "a sense of his soul," but he subsequently pursued policies that Putin vigorously opposed, or just tolerated. Russia was then coming to terms after the disastrous years of President Boris Yeltsin.
Observers believe that the Bush administration could not shed the Cold War mentality and wanted to poke "Russian eyes" at every possible opportunity.
Some of the actions are given below:
First, in 2002, Bush abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, which barred both superpowers from deploying national defenses against long-range ballistic missiles and from building the foundation for it.
The treaty was based on the premise that if either superpower constructed a strategic defense, the other would build up its offensive nuclear forces to offset it. They would, therefore, head towards a never-ending offensive-defensive arms race.
Bush issued a short written statement the day the treaty expired, saying that it was "now behind us," and reiterated his commitment to deploy missile defenses "as soon as possible" to protect against "growing missile threats."
Second, came the expansion of Nato, contrary to an agreement that Nato's expansion would not disadvantage Moscow. Nato has deviated from its original charter, and assumed responsibility on a global scale for everything that happens. For example, Nato troops are in Afghanistan.
Third, the Bush administration proposed deployment of an anti-missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic, which appears to be an attempt to chip away at Russia's influence in the region, to the annoyance of Russia.
When Russia attempted to place nuclear devices in Cuba in 1962, the US immediately went to high defensive mode. Why can't the Bush administration understand that placing any facility with nuclear weapons is likely to upset and antagonise Russia.
Russia is angry because it knows that the deployment of the missile system in these countries is meant for Russia, and not for Iran's missiles. It seems that the US wants to encircle Russia with its allies to keep it "within the box."
Is an anti-missile defence system reliable?
Some military experts say that, at the present rate of progress, a reliable missile defence is only 50 years away. Some say that all the trials run so far -- successful or otherwise -- have been rigged. The target, its type, trajectory and destination, are known before the test begins, and only one enemy missile is used.. Decoy missiles bear no resemblance to the target and are identified as decoys in advance. In order to enhance the appearance of success, recent flight tests have become even less realistic: the agency has now stopped using decoys altogether when testing its GMD system. Meanwhile, the anti-missile defence system, according to many US writers, is a product of military industry lobbyists. Many Democrats are not sure whether an anti-missile defence system will work. Some military experts say that rigorous tests should continue, and deployment of an anti-missile system in Poland is misconceived. The Congress may not provide funds to the Bush administration for it. The U.S. has spent between $120 billion and $150 billion on the program since President Ronald Reagan re-launched it in 1983. Under George Bush, the costs have accelerated. The Pentagon has requested $62 billion for the next five-year tranche, which means that the total cost between 2003 and 2013 will be $110 billion. A new Russia
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, is different from that under President Yeltsin. The president is responsible for a resurgent economy and a new wave of nationalism. Soaring oil and gas prices have made Russia's economy vibrant. Putin has used his country's resource to boost the military and flex Russia's muscles in global affairs. Eight years of Putin have instilled self-confidence among Russians. Russia, which went begging in the '90s to Western investors, has an investment-grade credit rating and has the world's third largest foreign currency reserves of $470 billion. Military spending is running at a post-Soviet record. New nuclear submarines, missiles, and aircraft have been commissioned. The new approach is backed by a defence budget that has jumped by 25% percent to $40 billion this year. The Defence Ministry has announced a $222 billion rearmament program. It is aimed at replacing half of the current military equipment by 2015. It includes new early-warning radar, new intercontinental missiles and a fleet of supersonic bombers. The navy is to get more than 30 warships, including new aircraft carriers. Three new submarines will be commissioned, each carrying 12 missiles, and their sister boats will carry 16 a piece. There are plans for a "fifth generation" fighter with a low radar profile, and claims that the new Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles has stealth technology that will allow it to penetrate the US missile-shield. Russia has real energy and financial clout, and is prepared to use it politically. Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on gas from western Siberia. Germany depends on Russia for 30% percent of its energy. The Russians point out that energy has been synonymous with power, and the oil-rich countries in the Middle East have a lot of power in regional affairs. Georgian conflict
The US wants Nato to expand to the borders of Russia, some say to the underbelly of Russia, such as Georgia, violating the agreement with Moscow. Russia views Georgia as the US views Central America -- as its own backyard. Georgia has become Russia's Cuba. The Bush administration encouraged Georgia into thinking it was under American protection, built up and trained its armed forces with the help of Israel, and established one of the biggest embassies in the region to make it a centre for American influence in the Caucasus region. When crunch hour came for Georgia, not a single Nato country, including the US, wanted to pick a fight with Russia on its door step. President Saakashvili of Georgia must be disillusioned with the American response and action. He totally miscalculated the situation in South Ossetia. Russia is determined to "teach" Georgia and the West a lesson this time. At the recent Nato meeting, the US secretary of state promised to "isolate" Russia. Some American politicians have threatened to expel Russia from the Group-8, to abolish the Nato-Russian Council, and to keep Russia out of WTO. According to former Soviet president Gorbachev, these are "empty threats. Do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to a lecture?" Meanwhile, Russia has cut off its military cooperation with Nato. Russia feels that the US has overstepped the line in all spheres -- economic, political and humanitarian. The Bush administration has gone from one conflict to another without achieving a full-fledged solution for any of them. Relations between Russia and the US are at their lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This does not augur well for international peace and security. The UN Security Council is deadlocked because of veto powers of the US and Russia. Where do we go from here?
Both the US and Russia need each other to address global issues such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, stability of global finance and reversing of economic slow-down. A bipartisan commission led by Senator Chuck Hagel and former Senator Gary Hart has recently been established at Harvard to report on American-Russian relations to Congress and to the next president. If the commission takes into account the vital interests of Russia, it may actually help restore relations with Russia.
Some military experts say that, at the present rate of progress, a reliable missile defence is only 50 years away. Some say that all the trials run so far -- successful or otherwise -- have been rigged. The target, its type, trajectory and destination, are known before the test begins, and only one enemy missile is used.. Decoy missiles bear no resemblance to the target and are identified as decoys in advance. In order to enhance the appearance of success, recent flight tests have become even less realistic: the agency has now stopped using decoys altogether when testing its GMD system. Meanwhile, the anti-missile defence system, according to many US writers, is a product of military industry lobbyists. Many Democrats are not sure whether an anti-missile defence system will work. Some military experts say that rigorous tests should continue, and deployment of an anti-missile system in Poland is misconceived. The Congress may not provide funds to the Bush administration for it. The U.S. has spent between $120 billion and $150 billion on the program since President Ronald Reagan re-launched it in 1983. Under George Bush, the costs have accelerated. The Pentagon has requested $62 billion for the next five-year tranche, which means that the total cost between 2003 and 2013 will be $110 billion. A new Russia
Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, is different from that under President Yeltsin. The president is responsible for a resurgent economy and a new wave of nationalism. Soaring oil and gas prices have made Russia's economy vibrant. Putin has used his country's resource to boost the military and flex Russia's muscles in global affairs. Eight years of Putin have instilled self-confidence among Russians. Russia, which went begging in the '90s to Western investors, has an investment-grade credit rating and has the world's third largest foreign currency reserves of $470 billion. Military spending is running at a post-Soviet record. New nuclear submarines, missiles, and aircraft have been commissioned. The new approach is backed by a defence budget that has jumped by 25% percent to $40 billion this year. The Defence Ministry has announced a $222 billion rearmament program. It is aimed at replacing half of the current military equipment by 2015. It includes new early-warning radar, new intercontinental missiles and a fleet of supersonic bombers. The navy is to get more than 30 warships, including new aircraft carriers. Three new submarines will be commissioned, each carrying 12 missiles, and their sister boats will carry 16 a piece. There are plans for a "fifth generation" fighter with a low radar profile, and claims that the new Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles has stealth technology that will allow it to penetrate the US missile-shield. Russia has real energy and financial clout, and is prepared to use it politically. Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on gas from western Siberia. Germany depends on Russia for 30% percent of its energy. The Russians point out that energy has been synonymous with power, and the oil-rich countries in the Middle East have a lot of power in regional affairs. Georgian conflict
The US wants Nato to expand to the borders of Russia, some say to the underbelly of Russia, such as Georgia, violating the agreement with Moscow. Russia views Georgia as the US views Central America -- as its own backyard. Georgia has become Russia's Cuba. The Bush administration encouraged Georgia into thinking it was under American protection, built up and trained its armed forces with the help of Israel, and established one of the biggest embassies in the region to make it a centre for American influence in the Caucasus region. When crunch hour came for Georgia, not a single Nato country, including the US, wanted to pick a fight with Russia on its door step. President Saakashvili of Georgia must be disillusioned with the American response and action. He totally miscalculated the situation in South Ossetia. Russia is determined to "teach" Georgia and the West a lesson this time. At the recent Nato meeting, the US secretary of state promised to "isolate" Russia. Some American politicians have threatened to expel Russia from the Group-8, to abolish the Nato-Russian Council, and to keep Russia out of WTO. According to former Soviet president Gorbachev, these are "empty threats. Do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to a lecture?" Meanwhile, Russia has cut off its military cooperation with Nato. Russia feels that the US has overstepped the line in all spheres -- economic, political and humanitarian. The Bush administration has gone from one conflict to another without achieving a full-fledged solution for any of them. Relations between Russia and the US are at their lowest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. This does not augur well for international peace and security. The UN Security Council is deadlocked because of veto powers of the US and Russia. Where do we go from here?
Both the US and Russia need each other to address global issues such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, stability of global finance and reversing of economic slow-down. A bipartisan commission led by Senator Chuck Hagel and former Senator Gary Hart has recently been established at Harvard to report on American-Russian relations to Congress and to the next president. If the commission takes into account the vital interests of Russia, it may actually help restore relations with Russia.
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