Plain Words
Pakistan's new politics?
PAKISTAN has a new president because of the resignation of General Pervez Musharraf on August 18, but the state of the country is a sad one. The economy has been sinking and causing concern all round.
The fiscal deficit left by the Musharraf regime was 7 to 8 per cent of GDP, inflation was between 9 to 10 per cent, while food item inflation was somewhere between 12 to 14 per cent -- now running at 25 per cent over last year. The country's imports this year are expected to be $40 billion plus while imports are stagnating at around $19 billion. The pressure on balance of payment can be imagined. Remedial measures are needed on a war basis.
The country is facing multiple insurgencies by various Islamic extremist groups, most of them calling themselves Taliban, that are linked with al-Qaeda. The Americans and the Nato powers want Pakistan to keep relentless military action inside Pakistan to prevent some of them from crossing into Afghanistan.
The US is now heavily pressurising Pakistan that it should prevent Pakistan becoming a staging post for attacks on Afghanistan no matter what it takes. It is not clear whether Pakistan army is expected to destroy them altogether physically or is it to keep the terrorists militarily engaged for as long as the West is in Afghanistan -- an indefinite engagement with no clear aim.
These extremist groups are ruling most of the tribal areas in the Frontier and the government of Pakistan's writ runs erratically: when soldiers are present Pakistan rules, where they are not present, warlords, criminals and Taliban or other extremists rule.
There is a long list of old persistent problems that require being tackled on war footing. The three smaller provinces complain of Punjab domination that mainly mans the central bureaucracy, military, big business and industry. Smaller provinces demand autonomy with a view to be able to exploit the resources that are there under the earth for the benefit of local people.
The federation is seen being in grave danger because the Baloch nationalist insurgency remains strong enough and Pakistan army has not been able to put it down. Sindh continues to be restive against Punjab and central domination. Frontier has been in the forefront of struggle against Punjab domination.
In his last two years Musharraf took many foolish actions. He dilly-dallied for nearly six months while the Lal Masjid complex was being used by all manner of Islamic extremists with terror links as staging post for obscure purposes. Its two fiery leaders were preaching the virtues of Taliban Islam and the need to defeat America. Musharraf negotiated with promises of concessions for six months; then he finally stormed the masjid and two attached madressas and killed God knows how many.
Then he tried to sack the chief justice in March last year. Justice Chaudhry refused to resign and said he would defend himself against the so-called charges Musharraf had shown in an open court. Musharraf was enraged, never having heard a "no" from anyone before. He arrested him there and then in his own office. Before too long the Supreme Court took over the case and within less than four months reinstated him and fined the government Rs.100,000 for submitting scandalous charge sheet before the SC.
Meantime a raging movement had grown up. It was to ensure an independent and assertive judiciary to check the executive. Gradually civil society joined it, including many political parties, and media, particularly electronic, and the press gave full support to the lawyers cause. It was openly anti-Musharraf and anti-military domination campaign that is still going on.
What really happened was that the Americans became uncertain over the unrest, their chief purpose in Pakistan being to ensure its continued role in the War on Terror. US experts recommended giving Musharraf a democratic face. Thus the US and British governments mediated a compromise between Musharraf and Benazir's PPP to cooperate.
The deal brought Benazir to Pakistan for participating in the November election. Americans and Saudis also ensured that Nawaz Sharif should also be allowed in for keeping up democratic pretensions. Elections had to be delayed because Benazir was assassinated on December 27.
Unquestionably, Benazir had committed to keep Musharraf as president and to join his War on Terror after hopefully winning the election and forming the government. By the time the government came to be formed in March, the new PPP boss, Asif Ali Zardari, realised that he could not put all his political cards on the table amidst rampant political movements by the lawyers and others for the judges' cause.
He felt compelled to continue with anti-establishment and anti-dictatorship rhetoric; it wouldn't do to tie up with Musharraf supporters. So he conceded Nawaz's demands and made repeated agreements to implement them for PML(N)'s joining his government.
But Nawaz's insistence on the old superior judiciary being brought back after Musharraf destroyed all High and Supreme Courts on November 3 and forced out all the judges that were not ready to take another oath of allegiance to his new constitutional amendments of that day. Some 60 judges were thrown out and new ones appointed. That basically remains the position.
That made Nawaz and Zardari cooperation impossible and PML(N) walked out of the coalition government on May 13 while their coalition in Punjab has all but broken down. Nawaz is demanding that Zardari withdraw his PPP ministers from Punjab government.
The PPP-led government continues to invite Nawaz into the coalition, but a whole set of moves are in place that look like what one had seen during the decade of 1990s when two governments each by Benazir and Nawaz Sharif were formed in Islamabad.
Each tried to harass and corner the other by instituting corruption cases. All the four governments were dismissed by presidents who had no constituency of their own but acted on a wink and nod of the army chief. That decade made civilian or democratic governments a laughing stock in the establishment and to an extent in the media of those days.
The same game is now in place. Corruption cases against Nawaz Sharif and his brother have been revived. The governor of Punjab, a PPP man, is threatening that if the PML(N) insists on throwing out PPP ministers, it cannot continue to rule. Zardari has said that he will not be a president without powers, negating the earlier demands of undoing all the amendments made by earlier dictators.
Zardari has shown his priorities. He is not bothered about the relations with the US or the various insurgencies that are going on in the country or the economy that is about to become insolvent if it is not bailed out soon. Much of the country remains without power for up to 12 hours a day. His first priority is to fix up his old opening of 1990s. A sorry progress that the country has made.
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