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Sri Lanka -- is the government really winning?
THE civil war in Sri Lanka is getting more intense. and the impression is that the government is winning. The military has stepped up attacks against the Tamil rebels and the government has vowed to dismantle the rebels' mini-state by capturing Kilinochchi, their political capital.
The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon has expressed alarm over escalating fighting, and said that both sides were obliged to ensure the safety of displaced civilians. The European Union has also echoed similar sentiments.
Evidently, the militants are suffering more losses than the government, and some quarters feel that the war is moving towards a decisive end -- albeit not immediately.
Fortunes in the battlefield are often marked by ups and downs, with the pendulum swinging in both directions. Nevertheless, it is clear that the government is at the moment in the driving seat. But does it really mean anything decisive?
The country is embroiled in a full-blown war following a number of developments that clearly indicated the hardening of stances of both -- the government and the Tamil militants. The peace process is in tatters, and the government discouraged mediation by foreign powers as it may be feeling that a decision can be reached in the battlefield.
The Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) had earlier expressed great concern at the worsening conditions. Others feel the same, and are concerned about the shape of things to come -- which obviously is more bloodshed and destruction.
The peace talks took a beating following the exit of Ranil Wickramsinghe, whose government had initiated the dialogue with the rebels but was dismissed by President Chandrika, apparently for being "soft" to the Tamil militants.
Ratnasiri Wickramanayaka became the new prime minister, and the chances of a settlement through discussions receded. President Mahinda Rajapakse, who succeeded Chandrika, followed the same hard-line with the rebels, and no progress has been made towards a negotiated settlement of the civil war.
Occasional moves for dialogue have collapsed. The president vowed some time ago that he wanted to end the war, not through talks but in the battlefield.
Several rounds of talks between the government and the Tamil Tigers during Ranil's time raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in Sri Lanka, which was virtually bleeding white because of the long-drawn conflict.
There was no decisive outcome of the civil war as both sides blamed each other for the situation. However, overall conditions marked a qualitative change when Wickramsinghe's government took an active pro-peace policy with the rebels, which facilitated a dialogue that went for several rounds and made some progress.
While it was the height of folly to expect easy resolution of the imbroglio, given the complexities involved, the dialogue gave hope since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of the Tigers while the latter abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils -- and agreed to autonomy.
The road to peace through negotiations was undoubtedly bumpy, but what was encouraging was the marked willingness to find common ground towards a permanent settlement. Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated eagerness in carrying forward the parleys. But the scenario has changed as the new government is pushing for a decisive victory in its favour.
The latest developments have frustrated the mediators, who pinned hopes of resumption of the dialogue despite yawning differences in the positions of the two sides. Norway and several other nations are keen to see that the belligerence is at least minimised. But it appears that nothing is working except the fighting.
Despite the claim by President Rajapakse that the government is very close to winning the war, the scenario in the battlefield is not one of easy achievements by the government troops. The determined Tamil militants will spare no efforts to overcome the losses, which, however, is a Herculean task.
In any case, even with the setbacks, no cakewalk is possible for the government. The militants will evidently fight to the last, and it will be folly to assume that they are on the verge of a total defeat. The rebels are committed cadres, hence they are hell-bent to go to any extent. But they are also losing cadres in bigger numbers.
The government wants to prolong the war, thinking that the militants will be short of fighters in the coming days while the troops will no face a problem, at least not like the rebels.But independent analysts believe that a decisive win for the government in the near future is unlikely, despite favourable conditions. Even a common citizen is not convinced that the war was going to be over soon. India says that a military solution to the civil war may not be easy and forthcoming.
But the question is -- must the government find a solution through military means? After all, the loss of lives on both sides is colossal. As such, the government needs to demonstrate maturity to resolve the crisis.
Sri Lanka needs prudent policies even at this stage and, obviously, the onus lies with the government, while the militants are expected to demonstrate a rationale attitude. The claims of big gains by the government may not be baseless, but this in itself is nothing to boast about in resolving a national problem.
A South Asian nation with relatively wider social and economic progress compared to its bigger neighbours must not be allowed to bleed white. It cannot be in the interest of Sri Lanka -- regardless of whether the Sinhalese dominated government wins the conflict or not.
If an amicable settlement of a seemingly intractable problem involving the radical leftist Maoists and the government can be found in another South Asian nation -- Nepal -- why is this out of question in Sri Lanka?
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