Obamania and the R word
WITH the US elections a few days away, Barack Obama looks to have sewn it up. Every major poll indicates Obama's victory, with some polls showing a seemingly insurmountable double- digit lead. The key factor is that swing states like Colorado, Ohio, and Florida, all with large electoral votes and having voted Republican in the previous two elections, seem to be "swinging" in Obama's favour.
The Obama campaign team, a well-oiled machine and backed up by a huge campaign fund, has bought up large amounts of air time in these states and has been drilling home the "need for change" mantra to whoever is listening. With the clock running down, the McCain camp is worried and on the defensive. The Palin factor may have won votes in the conservative heartland of the country, but it has pretty much alienated mainstream conservatives who account for a far bigger chunk of the party.
Even the governor's folksy charm seems to have worn off, and audiences are no longer enthralled by her "real policies for real Americans" chant. The young senator from Illinois seems to have wrapped up the race. Or has he? Even the most ardent Democrat is still cautious. There is one last card to be played, and it is the one factor that can still turn the elections to the Republican camp: race, the veritable elephant in the room.
Race isn't a new issue; it has been behind the scenes from day one of the race. Yet the American media has tried to ignore it, treating it as a dirty word. On the surface, one could be mistaken for thinking that the race factor is against Senator Obama.
The Democrats are worried about one particular camp: white voters who don't want to vote for an African-American and yet are too politically correct to come out and say it. Such a group has complex and significant ramifications: it can inflate the number of people who are really supporting the senator, thus giving a fall sense of security, and more importantly, change the dynamics of the Obama campaign to focus more on other groups. And yet, racial politics in America is never a simple equation, and the last few days could prove yet another surprising twist to the story.
Recent numbers from a poll conducted in mid-September by Dr. Charles Franklin, a political scientist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, revealed a surprising caveat to those who have categorised racial dynamics going against Obama: a surprising number of whites (mostly senior citizens) admit holding negative stereotypes about African-Americans and yet are willing to vote for Obama.
The poll had asked voters whether they agreed with the statement, "African-Americans often use race as an excuse to justify wrongdoing." About a fifth of white voters said they "strongly agreed." Yet among those who agreed, 23% said they'd be supporting Obama and would vote for him in the elections.
The results are backed up by anecdotal evidence, which suggest that a good number of white voters will simply swallow their prejudices against Senator Obama and will go against their gut feelings and listen to what their heads tell them.
The poll results serve as evidence to people who have long foretold that Americans have started getting over their racial hang-ups, despite still holding on to some negative notions about non-whites. The poll found that the same group of white Americans wouldn't want their daughters to marry an African-American male, nor would they want to move into a neighbourhood with a large number of ethnic minorities. And yet, the same group is at worst undecided about the election results and a surprising large number of them are turning to the Obama camp. So why are the winds of race turning in favour of the Democratic candidate? It's the economy, stupid.
The current global financial crisis has struck a nerve amongst blue-collar white Americans, who have seen their livelihoods take a nosedive under two successive Republican administrations. The same group is no longer interested in ideology and more keen on hot button issues like the economy and which candidate can turn things around for them. And John McCain simply doesn't garner the same confidence as his Democratic rival. In short, the economy and bread and butter issues seem to be trumping racism. And yet racism persists.
Suddenly, Barack Obama is no longer a black candidate but a "half white." The same voters suddenly seem to be focusing on Obama's white heritage, his close relationship with his late mother and his grandparents who come from a strong, white rural background.
Obama didn't go to a traditional black institute like Moorhouse, he went to a preppy, elite white one: Harvard. Obama is even on record blaming black fathers for not being there for their children, and indirectly causing some of the social problems that ail the black community (and consequently the nation). Obama is one of us!
If Obama wins the campaign, he will do so not because he is a black (or half white, whatever your leaning is) candidate, but despite it. Not that the Obama camp will mind: surprised by such optimistic poll results, he has recently started courting voters from traditional Republican bases, like the Appalachians, that have been hit hard by the economic crisis.
The voters there have responded strongly to their newly adopted son. Black voters too have taken this recent sign of endearment not as patronising or condescending, but as a slow step towards reconciling facts with once entrenched prejudices. And if Obama does go on to become the next president of the so called Free World, it will mean one more step towards finding friends in places where few existed before.
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