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Mumbai fall-out
INDIA and Pakistan have been continuing efforts to improve their often-strained bilateral ties, but they may suffer a reversal as a fall-out of the Mumbai episode. The sensational terror incidents in the commercial hub of India are over. Various issues are now coming to the fore -- including rolling of heads on charge of dereliction of duty. Home Minister Shivraj Patil has resigned.
The Mumbai massacre has shaken not only India but also the entire world. The media and others are pointing accusing fingers at the federal as well the Maharastra state government for intelligence failure, even though the attackers were finally killed or nabbed.
How the attackers could get into the city -- presumably by sea -- and how only ten of them could engage the security forces of a mighty country like India for 62 hours remain a matter of raging debates in India itself. The axe may fall on many other key persons as the dust raised by the incidents is unlikely to settle down in the near future because of the gravity of the matter.
But a major fall-out of the Mumbai incidents is the impact it is likely to have on the topsy-turvy relations between India and Pakistan. New Delhi points the needle of suspicion at Islamabad, while the latter denies any direct or indirect involvement stoutly. The prime minister and the external affairs minister implied Pakistan's links. They said that the attackers might have come from "outside" -- a euphemism for Pakistan.
The Pakistan president asked India not to come up with a "knee-jerk" response and said that his country was not associated with terrorism as it itself was a victim of such acts. Evidently, he was referring to the daring attack in a posh hotel in Islamabad sometime ago. Such comments from the highest level cause a strain in the bilateral ties -- albeit no specific and serious accusations have been leveled by New Delhi.
The state minister for home affairs said that all the ten "terrorists" were from Pakistan. All but one of the attackers were killed, and the one nabbed reportedly admitted that they all came from Pakistan.
It is widely believed in India that the militant Laskar-e-Taiba group was behind the incidents. The same group was accused of launching the attack on the Indian parliament, which had severely damaged Indo-Pakistan ties.
Relations between the two neighbours were normal, but the attack on the parliament aggravated the ties to the extent that they were on the brink of a war. More than a million troops remained stationed along the border for many weeks.
Fortunately, an open conflict did not flare up, thanks to the reconciliatory efforts undertaken by nations friendly to both India and Pakistan and pressure by the saner sections of the people in both countries.
Nevertheless, this could not obscure the fact that Indo-Pakistan ties are so sensitive that at any time these can be blown out of proportion and spread with all-out belligerence.
Unfortunately, the two neighbours are showing signs in the aftermath of the Mumbai events that there could be a reversal of the positive trend of normalisation of relationship. Reports said that Islamabad was considering moving one lakh troops from Afghanistan to its border with India if tension escalated.
India and Pakistan have nurtured deep animosity against each other ever since the British left India in 1947. The main bone of contention is Kashmir. However, both say they will make efforts to solve it.
The emergence of Saarc also had a sobering effect on the hostile Indo-Pakistan ties, while it is also a matter of common knowledge that many a time the regional forum also suffered the adverse jolts of the negative aspects of the relationship of the two main players of the regional spectrum.
The Mumbai incidents were most unfortunate, and killing of innocent people cannot be condoned under any circumstances. Evidently, the attackers were not acting for causes that they considered important and sacred for them.
The Indo-Pakistan dispute is undeniably complicated and, hence, requires pragmatism in addressing it. Pakistan's president, immediately after taking office, said that guns could not resolve problems.
Sadly, a high level Pakistan delegation led by no less a person than its foreign minister cut short the on-going visit to India and returned home as a sequel of the incident. Cricket matches and other programs between the two countries will be affected.
India is naturally angry, but nothing should be blamed on the Pakistan government without incontrovertible evidence. Even at this stage, goodwill and pragmatism must be brought into play for the overall interest of not only India and Pakistan, but also for the South-Asian region.
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