Asean's Frail Fraternity
The sixth annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations held on December 15-16 last year, came at a time when many in the region were questioning the association's purpose. A watchful observer remarked: "Asean is in a mess and might as well hibernate for the next few years. No one's pulling together on anything, so why bother with its outcome?"
Yet the stakes for the region are high. Fallout from the economic crisis is generating political and social tensions in Malaysia, and fuelling sectarian violence in Indonesia. Without any regional cohesion, Asean's nine member states might, it was feared, individually seek help from strategic powers in the neighbourhood. This would have undermined one of Asean's greatest achievements - balancing power in a region that has historically been at the crossroads of superpower rivalry.
When the Asean heads of government gathered in Hanoi in the middle of December last year, there were lingering apprehensions, as during the previous summit, there was nothing the leaders could do to stem the flight of business confidence. There were already signs that some regional powers were capitalising on Asean's weakness to expand their influence. China has already staked its claim on Spratly Islands where it is reported to be making some military installations. China is also cementing ties with Asean's newest member Burma, taking advantage of the country's isolation from the West. Not to be outdone, Japan has touted a $30 billion rescue plan for the region. Even the US has flexed its muscles by supporting the political opposition to Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The problem at present is that Asean lacks the teeth and the unity to formulate regional strategies to deal with great powers.
Things were different previously when the region was a hub of prosperity. Growth rates soared and Asean was courted and treated with respect by major powers around the world. This allowed the group to play a pivotal role in brokering the 1991 Cambodian peace settlement. That, in turn, gave it the confidence to establish a framework for a regional free-trade area in the early 1990s. In 1992, Asean also took the driver's seat in regional security by establishing the Asean Regional Forum, which sought to bring Asean together with China, US, Russia and Japan to discuss regional issues.
But now, the member states are preoccupied with their own individual problems. "These countries are becoming inward-looking; nationalist feelings are coming to the fore," said an seasoned Singaporean diplomat. In the throes of violent political change, Indonesia is led B J Habibie who has no political background for handling complex regional politics. Under fire for both his politics and economics, Malaysia's Mahathir is no longer the emerging regional leader he once was. Chuan Leckpai, Thailand's shy prime minister, and an amateur artist, seemed more interested in sketching his Asian colleagues than challenging them at the previous meeting. And in the Philippines, diplomatic handlers tried to keep the vocal president, Joseph Estrada, on a tight leash.
Considering that the last summit was attended by new and, for the most part, unacquainted leaders who have different backgrounds, a senior Thai Foreign Ministry official seemed to think that the scope for collective action was limited - just as demands for closer cooperation were growing. "People were watching to see what Asean can do to help its own people," the trend of thinking was on this line.
As one of Asean's most open societies, Thailand seemed acutely aware of the need to address the social fallout from the economic crisis. But the country's initiative to set up a caucus within Asean to enhance and fund social safety nets died after Laos and Burma labelled it as an invitation to external interference.
Indeed, as well as the separate concerns of the individual states, Asean must also deal with a regional divide between the closed conservative societies of Burma, Laos and Vietnam and the more open political cultures of the six original members.
At the official level, there's a defensive ring about the way Asean is projected.
"Things are moving in a quite satisfactory way, considering the limitations," said the Asean Secretary-General, who rejects criticism that Asean has done nothing to help solve the economic crisis. "That's like blaming the Organisation of American States for the financial crisis in Mexico." He reminded people that Asean was an association of states cooperating voluntarily for the common good. Answering criticism that Asean lacks teeth because it must come to decisions by consensus, it was pointed out that even in the Council of Ministers, the main decision-making body of the European Union, unanimity is required for decisions on important issues.
In this context, the time-table for creating a free-trade area in the region, creating an Asean investment area, and encouraging the use of Asean currencies in regional trade are reaffirmed as significant achievements of the Asean.
Japan came to the Asean summit armed with its Miyazawa Plan, which was designed to pump $30 billion of cash and trade benefits into the Asean region. The idea is that by internationalising the yen in the wake of the financial crisis, Asean countries will want to reduce the weighting of the US dollar in the currency-basket formulas that determine exchange rates.
Trying to make up for a lack of interest among Western investors, Burma, meanwhile, is quietly stepping up its engagement with China. As well as two recent deals with Chinese companies in the energy industry, the Burmese government has signed the first agreement with a Chinese mining company to explore for minerals in Burma's northern Kachin state.
Free as each Asean country is to make its own agreements with foreign powers, these overtures to individual members by China and Japan present a striking contrast to the Asean region prior to the economic crisis. Before last year, Asean enjoyed a more egalitarian relationship with the big powers. It sent foreign investors to China, preached free trade to Japan, and presided over a security forum that brought the 18 Asia-Pacific countries together.
Today, bereft of vision and deprived of the economic confidence to move forward on reform, Asean leaders, it is left, may find it hard to do much else in the coming stage and perhaps begin mending fences blown down by the economic storm. Some analysts have made the observation that Asean minus the rhetoric of prosperity from the boom years could become a begging bowl for aid from the developed world - and, therefore, a centre for superpower rivalry.
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