PERSPECTIVES
BJP's Forte
Even if power is the elixir of political life it was once an illusion for the BJP,presently India's ruling party or an old time Jansangh - its fore runner. For years they remained in the fringes of power without ever tasting it. The decade of nineties opened the floodgate of fortune for the BJP which formed three governments at the centre in three years since 1996. How did that come about was a fascinating story. Born in early eighties from the remnants of Morarji Desai's Janata Party the BJP came a cropper in 1984 by winning only two Lokshava seats. Its electoral tally sharply went up in 1989 election by bagging 84 seats. But its real success was evidenced in the nineties when it inexorably came in a gush. It was aptly said that the last decade of the century belonged to the BJP.
In its post-Rathtyatra election of 1991 the party captured an enviable 119 seats thus becoming the largest opposition group in the Parliament. Belying the hopes of secular optimists that the BJP with the scar of Babri Mosque demolition would be down to dump, the party emerged as the single largest majority in the Lokshava in 1996 election and occupied - even if very briefly - the citadel of power in Delhi. In 1998 the BJP notched up an impressive tally with 182 seats and ruled the country till the coalition it headed fell in April last year. In all these elections since 1991 the BJP was also able to enlarge its vote base - rising slowly from 20 per cent in 1991 to 20.3 per cent in 1996 and finally 25.6 per cent in 1998. And that was the BJP's peak in term of popular votes.
Although the enlargement of BJP's vote base was nothing spectacular its rapidly increasing score of seats had been rather phenomenal. But in 13th Lokshava election, the party, for the first time, failed to improve even its seat sharing which remained static at 182 seats. As a matter of fact, the BJP this time fought elections in less number of seats. As regards the popular vote base, the BJP's performance was still worse as the party's vote share actually tumbled to 23.8 per cent in last election; considering that a media hype was built up to project the BJP's patriotic role during the Kargil war and the party's publicity blitz brought to a crescendo on the eve of the election, the popular support for BJP was expected to be more sweeping. Instead, it fell from its peak achieved in 1998.
This setback not withstanding, the BJP's triumphant march continues. It again headed a 24-party coalition to form a new government at the centre. In 1998 the BJP mustered a coalition only after the election. Yet it could manage the coalition successfully till it collapsed in a questionable no-confidence vote. But in 1999 it was pre-election arrangement with the inherent advantage of alliance with prior knowledge of each other's stake. Also the fact that the Congress is now 30 seats down and the BJP and allies are 40 seats up gives new BJP-led government ample cushion to face any political challenge. Given the BJP's brinkmanship in real politic the observers tend to think that the BJP is likely to dominate through the century the way the Congress did during the twentieth century.
But, according to the post-election survey reports which are now pouring in, the BJP has, in fact, weakened by now and has certainly gone past its peak with its vote base shrunken and the elastic limit of its popular appeal already reached. But where it still remains unbeaten is in its superb strategy and, of course, the leadership. It thoughtfully plotted its way up and invested in future. It could identify its weaknesses and correct them in right earnest. The BJP policy makers realised that a coalition era in India's politics had come to stay and accordingly gone ahead to forge alliances with potential allies with necessary ideological adjustments. They recognised the fact that only a federal union with regional parties and aspirations could lead to power in Delhi.
It is often argued that Indian politics had always been coalitional in character. Throughout the period of Congress dominance the real strength of the party was not its ideological or programmatic orientation but its consensusal character which made it an alliance of sorts, bringing into the party's fold different castes, communities and minorities. While today's congress remains oblivious of it the BJP did draw lessons from the experiment. The BJP attempted and achieved the coalition of the constituent parties having basic ideological compatibility well before 13th Lokshava election. The constituent parties could also agree on a common programme calculated to serve the best interests of the nation.
The BJP, as a doctrinal party, has always been aware of its limitation in terms of popular vote base. The post election surveys also establish this fact. BJP mainly draws its support from the socially and economically privileged ones. The urban rich are more inclined towards the BJP and the trend has now been further enlarged to include the well-off in every social group. That is why the elite of today - the educated, the opinion making segment of the society and upwardly mobile people in all social groups - is more vocally behind the BJP than before. These elements of the electorate are obviously important but numerically in minority. Hence was the necessity for the BJP to offset this weakness and the party did it by forging an elaborate network of alliances across the country. These strategic local alliances owe a great deal to the twin leadership of Prime Minister Vajpayee and Mr Advani, the Home Minister.
It is interesting that for the first time in independent India a ruling party represents the better off as against predecessor parties that drew sustenance from the worse off. Evidently this deprives the BJP of its numerical advantage and that is where the BJP's strategy comes into play. Whereas in the past the BJP stood on the margins of the power because of its restricted vote base, the BJP of the mid-nineties overcame the hurdles through the mechanism of alliance. If the BJP's support declined down the Hindu social order - as evident from the survey reports - together with the Constituents of the coalition it formed a winning alliance of upper and middle castes.
It is an irony for the opposition Congress which in spite of the improvement of its vote share down the social and economic hierarchy failed to get proportional seats due both to its poor strategy and leadership. The Congress got the biggest share of votes of the Adivashis, Dalits, the Muslims and the Christians. Despite the severe erosion in its vote bank over the years it seems it still has a residue of goodwill of the general mass. Indeed, in 1999, the Congress votes went up in all states except in Orissa and Maharastra. With its vote share of 28.44 per cent as against BJP's 23.80 per cent the Congress in a sense is a winner even today. The party has been significantly rehabilitated in the states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal from where it was earlier banished. Yet, its poor tally of 112 seats takes the party no where. It is any one's guess as to what will be the shape of things once the Congress reasserts its role in national politics under a more credible leadership. Till then the BJP remains politically almost unchallenged unless something drastic happens.
Even if the BJP enjoys immunity from outside challenge it faces vulnerabilities from within. They emanate from myriad inner conflicts of the BJP itself. This was evident from internecine clashes between the government and the Sangh Parivar during last term of BJP in power. Even now the signals from both Vajpayee and Advani are in favour of making the BJP into a liberal, right of the centre party which is at the same time linked to the larger RSS fraternity. The old diehards resist such expedient transition to modernity. These conflicting impulses within the BJP is something the leadership will be overwhelmed with during the coming days. This intraparty conflict may as well spill beyond and seep into unity of the coalition. To Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee with his unflinching commitment to the NDA manifesto the governance is precisely a management challenge but for the diehards tutored in the RSS brand of Hindu nationalism it is an ideological matter. Much of Vajpayee's success is contingent upon how Vajpayee will be able to grapple with this apparently irreconcilable difference.
With a phenomenal expansion in the BJP ranks with the Hindutva diehards the party is faced also with major organisational tensions. Kalyan Singh's revolt is just one manifestation of a larger conflict involving both ideology and quest for power. Also many deprived of ministerial berths are resentful and can divert their frustration into hard Hindatva or caste mobilisation. Although Mr Vajpayee is dubbed as a sarvamitra - a leader who can both lead and forge a consensus, may one day find it difficult to surmount the mounting problems being created for him by the party's enormous internal contradictions.
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