MATTERS AROUND US
Can Washington Improve Indo-Pakistan Ties?
THE recent hijacking of an Indian airlines commercial flight from Kathmandu to New Delhi has shown further downswing in the already-bitter relations between two traditional rivals in South Asia -- India and Pakistan. Their relationship touched a nadir few months ago during the Kargil conflict. The West, particularly the United States, intervened, and backstage efforts by Washington resulted in the lessening of the tensions but Islamabad had to pay the price as it had to agree to call back militants and others supported by it from Indian side of the line of control (LOC).
The development averted a possible war, but the sitting governments in two countries experienced contrasting impact of the Kargil crisis, as the interim government in India derived huge benefits from it. because of its handling of the conflict and ultimate resolution were seen as victory for India. The government of A. B. Vajpayee went on to win the mid-term polls while an absolute majority for his BJP-led multi-party alliance was not on the cards before the Kargil issue came to the fore. By stark contrast, the Nawaz Sharif government in Pakistan despite having unassailable majority in the National Assembly bore the wrath of the army and also opposition parties as they saw government's agreeing to withdraw the militants as a total capitulation, for which the prime minister had to travel to Washington and meet President Bill Clinton.
The people and the army in Pakistan were known to be unhappy over Sharif's surrender on the crisis despite initial gains by the Islamabad-backed outsiders. This caused obvious irritant between the civilian government and the army in one hand, and on the other the government-opposition ties nosedived further. The army toppled the government on October 12 last year and the Kargil issue was considered to be at the back of the development. An elected government's unconstitutional exit cannot be liked by the democratic world and the episode faced severe criticisms. Opposition parties, initially appeared gleeful at the departure of the PML government of Sharif but is now looking askance at military government's moves since new ruler General Pervez Musharraf is showing little fascination for the politicians regardless of political lines. He is also taking many of them to task for "corruption and misdeeds". The military is also ambiguous on the timetable for return of democracy in Pakistan even though it says that "real democracy" will be restored at the earliest.
A four-member powerful parliamentary delegation from the United States comprising four Democratic party Senators and led by minority leader Tom Daschie is visiting Pakistan at the moment and has held talks with Foreign Minister Abdus Sattar. The delegation apparently has two main agenda for discussions -- a timetable for return to democracy in Pakistan and improvement in Indo-Pakistan relations.
The US and the Clinton administration is pressing both India and Pakistan for dialogue to resolve their differences. While taking the credit for averting a likely conflict over the Kargil, it wants to pursue the efforts what it perceives as peace moves between two belligerent neighbours. Since the US is widely seen to have sided with New Delhi in the "Kargil" crisis by exerting pressure on Pakistan for a solution, Washington possibly wants to strike a balance now by not further antagonising Islamabad. This may explain why Clinton administration was rather mute on the dismissal of the elected government by the army. It certainly disapproved the development but not to the extent expected from the democratic world's leader. Its reactions were largely ritualistic rather than meaning business. The US also ignored the recent call by the Indian prime minister to declare Pakistan a "terrorist state" in the wake of the hijacking of the Indian plane and this sounds plausible when viewed in the context that Washington may not be keen to push Pakistan further away lest such a distance affects its ties with South Asia.
The Democratic Senators -- minority leader Tom Daschie of South Dakota, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Hary Reid of Navada and Daneil Akaka of Hawaii -- are holding talks with the Pakistan side. Evidently, the US delegation is stressing on early return of democracy, need for dialogue with India to relax tensions, and Pakistan signs the CTBT. Islamabad's responses are not difficult to read. It says that democracy will be restored after the present administration disciplines the economy and clears politics of "corruption". As far as ties with India is concerned, Pakistan quite expectedly cites "Kashmir" as the main bone of contention. It also relates Indian nuclear strategy and actions about Islamabad signing the CTBT. Pakistan is particularly concerned at the reports that the US may recognise India as a nuclear power. But it wants the US to treat both India and Pakistan at per since both have atomic powers now.
India does not seem keen for a dialogue with the military government of Pakistan and more so with the person whom it views at the mastermind of the Kargil intrusion. This makes the resumption of the dialogue difficult. Prime minister Vajpayee had good personal rapport with ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif despite differences at the state level, and he had earlier expressed concern about Sharif's life at the hand of the present government in Pakistan. The Lahore Declaration between Vajpayee and Sharif did create a positive ambience although qualitative change in their bilateral ties is a Herculean task. Two countries had "composite" talks covering different issues -- ranging from co-operation in sports and culture to settlement of Sir Creek maritime boundary disputes earlier. But now the pitch of negotiations seems to have queered to the extent that it is difficult to retrieve.
President Clinton is expected to visit South Asia within a few months. He is unlikely to visit Pakistan because of the character of governance there. Islamabad is asking US to include it in the itinerary lest the visit becomes too apparently one-sided. Washington is not likely to change its mind. However, the US wants a better political environment in the region during Clinton's visit. The assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs Karl Indurfurth is expected to make a swing in the region. He will definitely press both New Delhi and Islamabad for steps to improve the bilateral relations. It remains to be seen if the American effort and pressure bear any fruit since betterment of the Indo-Pakistan ties at this stage is unquestionably very difficult -- but not impossible.
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