Food Alert
The post-flood food situation has been the major source of concern for both the government and society at large. So far, the government appears content with its damage-limitation exercise. There have been no reports of famine or serious food shortages in any part of the country. It would appear that the government's vulnerable group feeding programme has helped those most at risk to tide over the immediate impact of the floods. However, it would be extremely dangerous for the government to assume that everything is fine. There are grounds to believe that the situation may not be as rosy as it appears, or as stable as the government would like the public to believe.
A senior official of the International Rice Research Institute has sounded just such an alert in an interview published in this paper on Friday. The point made was that the shortfall in the aman crop, as a direct result of the floods, would make itself felt through the next three to four months. The picture on the ground also tells a less-than-glowing story. Despite the government's intervention through open market sales (OMS), the price of rice has not come down substantially. It is most likely that the government does not possess either the budgetary resources or the logistics to make a real dent in market prices. There may even be debate over whether price of rice should be brought down, since a price below production cost could deter farmers from growing paddy. However, given the lack of employment opportunities in the countryside, there is little doubt that the government's holding operations need to continue for longer than may have been thought necessary.
The critical thing for the government to do now is to remain vigilant. Any lapse into complacency, resulting from a false sense of security or misinformation by sycophants, could spell disaster. Over the next three to four months, it would be vital that intervention tools such as the vulnerable group development (VGD) and food for work programmes are effective. In addition, the enhanced agricultural credit disbursement programme also needs to be monitored closely. All these are likely to put pressure on the management aspects of the economy, but the priority should be to ensure adequate income at the rural household level through employment opportunities, and availability of rice through imports and speedy distribution of food aid.
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