Foreign policy challenges and possible responses
Economics apart our foreign policy makers will have to be in step with others relating to many UN conventions to which we have become parties but they still remain to be legislated upon. One inescapable fact of the unipolar world is that no country can escape for long international scrutiny particularly in the post Nine-Eleven era. Fight against terrorism has now become the overriding international agenda, which has to be tailored into the foreign policy structure of all countries.
Brian White (of Staffordshire University) describes foreign policy as that area of governmental activity which is concerned with relationship between the States and other actors, particularly other States, in the international system. Roy Jone's definition of foreign policy as penetrating all that is fundamental to continued human existence was dramatic and perhaps fuelled by the Cuban crisis, which had brought the world to the brink of extinction. Whether foreign policy begins where domestic policy ends at the "water's edge" or bridges the boundary between nation states and their international environment, it is important for all, particularly for "small-big" states like ours (small in size but big in population and aspirations), to study the three central concepts of decision, decision makers, and decision making process to understand foreign policy.
Foreign policy like domestic policy is formulated within the state. Yet it can be influenced, and often is, by the likes of De Gaulle's grand designs or Willy Brandt's Ostopolitik, which have to be tailored within the expected responses to events occurring in the international environment. But the end of the Cold War and consequent disintegration of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, velvet revolution in Czechoslovakia and the phenomenal changes in the Eastern Europe have significantly changed foreign policy responses and their analysis. Constancy, however, have remained in "what' "why" "how" in analytical framework as have difficulties in acquisition of hard fact information about foreign policy events either in "close government ethos" as in Britain and many other countries, in surfeit of information/ disinformation, subjectivism of the decision makers particularly in authoritarian and/ or oligarchic state system where the opinion of one person or a few based on subjective considerations determine foreign policy responses, primary tendency to out perform the previous governments having scant regard as to whether the new policy responses to old foreign policy issues are qualitatively superior to those made by the group now sitting in the opposition benches, lack of bipartisan or multi partisan approach to issues which are fundamentally national in character and thereby should be above domestic political squabble, ethnocentrism i.e. "placing of a particular country at the centre of world affairs and inflating its importance in the course of world events accordingly" etc (Analyzing Foreign Policy - Brian White). Accepting Joseph Nye's label of "state-centric realism" in which the government on behalf of the State is a unitary and monolithic actor in formulating foreign policy, often-external forces rather than internal compulsions become the major determinants of foreign policy. If one were to take the most recent examples of NATO and EU expansions, one can reasonably reach the conclusion that such extra-ordinary events could not have taken place but for the end of the Cold War. At the same time a State's inherent strength both military and /or economic can help it to withstand external pressure as the Russians have so far successfully done in the Chechnya case whereas North Korea will have to face (albeit justifiably) US led international pressure to abandon its nuclear card.
The common adage that one can chose one's friends but not neighbours may put foreign policy framers in uncomfortable position where to demonstrate their "independence" and "patriotism" they tend to follow policy which may prove to be counterproductive in the long run. As the second half of the last century Europe has shown us relations between neighbours do not have to sail through rough waters. On the contrary the process of globalisation and the new threats to world security replacing the old East-West confrontation makes it imperative for countries not only to live in peace with neighbours but to make regional and/or sub-regional cooperation meaningful. One also has to be acutely aware of, however ill articulated and maligned Bush doctrine of either-you-are-for-us-or-against-us may be, that such a policy may be relevant for regional powers as well. In such cases, "big-small" states like ours have to spell out clearly their positions on contentious regional issues considered by our neighbours as vital to their national security. Sitting on the fence cannot be an eternal option nor looking for new security partners who may not turn up or be able to be of assistance at the right moment. Subservience is not being advocated nor external control of foreign policy will be acceptable to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has to address India's serious concerns relating to perceived threat to her security. It is difficult to believe that India's foreign policy towards Bangladesh would be dictated by her likes and dislikes, if any, of the political parties of Bangladesh. Indians surely are aware that this is totally an internal matter of Bangladesh and any interference would be resisted by the people and would be totally counter productive. Delhi's South Block, peopled by pragmatists and realists, are unlikely to make such juvenile errors and would be inclined to do business with the government in power in Bangladesh.
One also fails to understand the thesis put forward by some that India has embarked upon a deliberate policy to malign Bangladesh as a fundamentalist Islamic country. Proponents of this school of thought cite the good conduct certificate given to Bangladesh by the US. Little do they realise that Pakistan is regularly being praised by the US government for its courageous anti-Taliban/Al-Qaida role while both at the centre and NWFP and Beluchistan Islamists and pro-Taliban forces are either in power or wield formidable influence over state policies. Anti-Bush protests are regular features in Pakistani cities recently more incensed by the possibility of US led attack on Iraq. It would therefore be advisable that good conduct certificate notwithstanding we should take due cognizance of Indian concerns unless a policy of confrontation has already been decided upon. Since geography has made us India-locked our efforts should be to pursue a policy so that we are not fenced in. Nuclearised South Asia and Indo-Pak rivalry portends nothing good for the region. And policy of equidistance would not help us in the long run. ASEAN and APEC routes, if at all feasible, should not be substitutes for South Asian cooperation even if it is amputative in the short run. But at the same time it would make little sense in remaining Indo-centric forced upon us by geography, when economic compulsions should encourage us to look Westward which will remain our largest market in the foreseeable future.
Economics apart our foreign policy makers will have to be in step with others relating to many UN conventions to which we have become parties but they still remain to be legislated upon. One inescapable fact of the unipolar world is that no country can escape for long international scrutiny particularly in the post Nine-Eleven era. Fight against terrorism has now become the overriding international agenda, which has to be tailored into the foreign policy structure of all countries. In one of his recent speeches British Foreign Secretary underlined several changing features that foreign policy framers would have to take into account. While population in developed countries would remain static with consequent labour shortage; developing countries would have to deliver economic growth to their ever-increasing population. Jack Straw saw the US remaining the largest economy at least for the next few decades with EU, Japan and China not far behind, while the developing countries would remain mired in increasing poverty and blighted growth prospect increasing the possibility of state failures as a growing phenomenon. Finally Jack Straw perceived increased debate on political ideas and religion. Though the threat of political extremism has waned, the dangers of religious fundamentalism have grown.
The West owes, he feels, to many in the Muslim world who feel western values and secularism threatening their faith and way of life, adequate assurances to overcome their mistrust. He strongly advocated for reduction of economic inequality through aid, market liberalisation, and removal of trade barriers between the developed and the developing worlds.
Equity demands of the developing countries to respond equally to the concerns of the developed countries where North Korean truancy, for example, is an abomination to be dealt with severely albeit with caution, through the United Nations. We on our part have to continue our endeavour to bring about semblance of peace, an essential ingredient for economic development in our region. Avoidable race in defence expenditures aimed at trying to solve an insoluble problem which has aged fifty years and have gone beyond pale can only be regressive and deny the people of the region the quality of life they richly deserve.
Kazi Anwarul Masud is retired Secretary to the Bangladesh government and former ambassador.
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