The Horizon This Week
ME Conflict: Phases of Peace Process
In the beginning of the Third Millennium it will not be foolhardy to imagine that the end of the tunnel in the Middle East conflict is near. Indeed we may see its resolution during the year 2000.
The Middle East Conflict started unravelling in 1979, when President Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Menachem Begin of Israel signed a Peace Treaty. The deal involved the return of the vast Sinai desert by Israel to Egypt and recognition of Israel by Egypt. This was an epoch making event. As Ambassador of Bangladesh in Egypt I recall those events vividly. President Carter of the USA mediated the deal between long time enemies Egypt and Israel at Camp David, not far from Washington DC the fall out for Sadat personally was enormous. He was ostracized by the Arabs from all their organisations and under Arab prodding many Islamic Embassies were withdrawn from Cairo.
On the other hand, we witnessed the opening of the first Israeli Embassy in an Arab capital, Cairo, although the hostility of the Egyptian population was more than evident. The deal ended in tragedy for Sadat for shortly after he was assassinated while watching the National Day parade. Menachem Begin had a similar fate. Thus the two leaders - who were breaking new ground ended their lives in the hands of assassin's bullets.
The hardest nut to crack has been the deal between the Palestinians and the Israelis. For here Israel occupies Arab land, has built settlements and the Palestinians, who have been ousted from their own land more than 50 years ago, are attempting to return to their land and establish a brand new state. A time-frame had been set in Oslo, the capital of Norway, when the Accord was signed between the parties. According to that time-frame, the Palestinians should have their state already. If that has not taken place, the sole responsibility must be borne by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who during his more than three years of rule brought the Peace Process to a grinding halt.
The advent of Ehud Barak as the new Prime Minister of Israel has given a tremendous momentum to the Peace Process. He has engaged in dynamic personal diplomacy and negotiated directly with Palestine leader Yasser Arafat and the negotiations appear to move smoothly. The formal appearance of the new state of Palestine among the family of nations appears firmly on the horizon. Indeed the only question that is holding up this from happening is the formal recognition by the sole superpower USA. And since US is alone responsible for bringing about the Peace Process to fruition, US recognition is a must.
Since assuming office of the Prime Minister less than a year ago, Barak has trained his sights on the other issues in the region. During his election campaign Ehud Barak had set the time-table for Autumn of 2000 for withdrawal from South Lebanon. This has been a particularly painful operation for Israel and she has been literally bled white. Israel arbitrarily occupied South Lebanon and established a 'cordon sanitaire'. The experiment has been one of unmitigated disaster for Israel. Sitting on the high mountains Hezbollah guerrillas have struck inside Israel at will causing hundreds of deaths. Israel is unprepared to pay such a high price for an illusory security.
The relationship between Lebanon and Syria is like between the teeth and the gum. In other words, it is impossible to make a deal with Lebanon without the concurrence of Syria. In the 1967 war between the Arabs and Israel, Golan heights of Syria is one of the areas Israel had occupied. She has built orchards, farms and housing in the area. Golan overlooks Israel and it is going to be a wrenching experience for Israel to return Golan to Syria.
President Hafez al-Assad of Syria is a man who plays for high stakes. He has patiently bided his time. He realises the time for a deal has come. Yet he is not prepared to get involved in the negotiations himself with his counterpart Ehud Barak. He has deputed instead his Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara to negotiate with Barak. The current negotiations in West Virginia, a stone's throw from Washington DC, where US president Bill Clinton will be present in order to avoid a slip up, will be the last leg of the Peace Process. It appears that the two sides are determined to find a solution. It stands to reason, therefore, that the two sides will come to terms since it is a straightforward deal - Land for Peace. It resembles the Egypt-Israel deal where Israeli troops withdrew from Sinai and Egypt accepted an Israeli Embassy in Cairo. The bargaining appears to centre around the question of Israeli security, when she is no longer in control of Golan. Yet it is beyond doubt that security on paper is not worth much so long there does not exist a degree of trust and confidence between the parties.
President Bill Clinton during his seven years in the White House has spent more time in completing the Peace Process launched by his Democrat predecessor Jimmy Carter than any other issue. Reagan and Bush years were barren years in the same way as the years of Netanyahu. The actors is the Middle East drama must be painfully conscious that they have less than one year to put a final seal on the Middle East conflict. That would be the biggest prize that they would offer to this brilliant US President, who has toiled single mindedly for this region, where all the three monotheistic faiths were born.
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