North Korea gets Mr. Bush by the hind leg!
To be or not to be', the soliloquy of Hamlet, the Prince of Denmark, must have found a real life manifestation in the present day 43rd President of the United States of America Mr. George W. Bush, Jr.'s dilemma of 'must it be Iraq or North Korea'. In his final prowl to stalk Saddam Hussein or the guy who tried to kill Bush Sr, his father (a striking resemblance with Hamlet) and anxiously awaiting slightest signal from Mr. Hans Blix (of the presence of any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq) for the leap, Mr. Bush has been caught, un-predicted, in the hind leg by the North Korean dictator Mr. Kim Jong Il. The man whom Mr. Bush called 'pygmy' adding 'I loathe Kim Jong Il -- I've got a visceral reaction to this guy' may have proved worthy of his wrath by challenging US administration by reviving nuclear programme and evicting UN inspectors from nuclear installations. May be his sudden entry in the drama will prove to be a deterrent to the war hysterics of Washington.
With the dawning of New Year, the world faces two immediate multi-alarm crises, one in Iraq and the other in North Korea. Mr. Bush's decision to call up military reserves, the cancellation of his January trip to Africa, the dispatch of a large Navy hospital ship to the Indian Ocean to stand by near Persian Gulf, not to mention the continuing buildup of combat forces in the region, all indicate that Washington does not at all believe in the diplomatic exercises being practiced by the UN Security Council.
Nor the findings of the UN inspectors, toiling in Iraq to find out presence of any WMD (weapons of mass destruction), will have any relevance to the US intent. Empowered by the US Congress and under the doctrine of pre-emption, the US can attack countries it thinks might support terrorism, whether or not they have actually done so. And who decides whether to attack? Here is what Mr. Bush says: "You said we're headed to war on Iraq. I don't know why you say that. I'm the person who gets to decide, not you". That settles it!
Mr. Bush thinks Saddam Hussein is a bad guy -- and that amply makes a potential target to bomb Iraqis, no matter what he would do or has done. No need to prove whether Mr. Hussein has links with Bin Laden or not. It is irrelevant and so is UN or for that matter, world community!
North Korea's entry into the drama has unsettled the equation and is an uncalled for distraction in Mr. Bush's design on Iraqi oil and geo-political attraction of the region. The pre-occupation of Bush administration with Iraq has prompted a low-keyed response to arrogance of Mr. Kim Jong Il. Cutting off the shipments of fuel oil was nothing more than rap on the knuckles. The US administration now is in the awkward position of choosing to give war with Iraq priority over the most serious threat to stability in Asia since the last North Korean nuclear crisis a decade ago. Moreover, the North Koreans are moving to develop their nuclear stockpile with such dispatch that the Washington's delaying tactics appear to have little chance to succeed. With the last of UN inspectors ejected and the possibility of a mothballed plutonium reprocessing facility coming back on line in the next month or two, North Korea is veering to produce ever-greater numbers of nuclear weapons, and any subsequent agreement is unlikely to reverse that fact.
There is still a lingering hope that all this will turn out to have been an attempt by North Korea to get the Bush administration to make major concessions. If that's the case, either the United States or North Korea will have to give way. Unfortunately neither of these scenarios looks likely. And in the absence of either outcome, North Korea is set on a course to become a nuclear power. The consequences of their success will seriously destabilise the region. Certainly it will occur to the Japanese, who have already witnessed a North Korean missile whiz past, that theirs is the rich nation most directly exposed to nuclear blackmail. Though the Japanese revulsion to nuclear weaponry is deep-seated, the country has the scientific know-how and plutonium to produce its own deterrent within one year. The same applies to South Korea, once the US umbrella falls inadequate.
North Korea already is in a position to provide nuclear technology to other states or "to terrorist groups". In any event, it will continue to develop the ability to deliver nuclear weapons by ballistic missile. And no long-term comfort can be found from the relatively limited capabilities of North Korea's current missiles, which can still threaten US allies, including Japan. What's more, North Korean weapons engineers can gradually develop longer-range rockets and lighter warheads, giving the country true intercontinental ballistic-missile capability.
While it's uncertain how far North Korea's missiles will be able to travel, it is certain that the Bush administration now faces an immediate loss of credibility. Its report on National Security Strategy, released in September, claims the right of pre-emption as a means to deal with the type of threat that Iraq is said to represent by virtue of its efforts to build weapons of mass destruction. There is no sign, however, that the administration plans to use this doctrine against North Korea, which poses a far more danger to the vital interests of the United States by virtue of what it has already accomplished.
The US administration's special addendum to its National Security Strategy, the 'National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction', published in December last, states on its opening page that: "We will not permit the world's most dangerous regimes and terrorists to threaten us with the world's most destructive weapons." But there is no sign that this new unconditional doctrine will be directed against North Korea. Another line in the addendum states that "Effective interdiction is a critical part" of the American strategy to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction and the missiles that deliver them. But, again, the US administration, after seizing a North Korean vessel in the act of smuggling North Korean ballistic missiles into Yemen, elected to release the ship and its cargo. American officials cited reverence for international law, but such a justification, so unusual during the USA's first weapons-proliferation case, takes the teeth out of its tough pre-emption policy. Such indulgence might have prompted North Korea's challenging stance!
So on the way to war with Iraq, the United States has been caught out by North Korea -- which apparently saw its opportunity in its distraction and seized it. This drama is far from over, but with each day North Korea moves closer to its goal of either forcing Washington to negotiate or of enhancing its ability to produce weapons of mass destruction.
Either way, the balance of power in the Far East is likely to be upset. If President Bush negotiates, he will send a message that the key to respectful attention from his administration is blackmail. If he can't stop North Korea from pursuing its nuclear ambitions, the only effective remedy would be military action.
War on the Korean Peninsula is almost too horrible to contemplate, although the Clinton administration certainly confronted it when dealing with North Korea's nuclear programme in the early 1990's. (Then, as now, the North Koreans were preparing to begin a process that would give them enough plutonium to build nuclear weapons serially.) If North Korea proceeds today, the whole region would then be faced with a ruthless government in a position to increasingly threaten its peace. This threat could cause a number of states, including South Korea and possibly Japan, to question whether American security guarantees are still the most reliable means for their defence and survival.
One political lesson for Mr. Bush from this episode is the danger that can come from tough talk. When using words as weapons, a leader must be prepared to back up his rhetoric with force. Mr. Bush's branding North Korea as a member of the 'Axis of Evil' in his last State of the Union message now looks like a bluff that is being called to challenge. And the outcome of Washington's diplomacy is that the Uncle Sam, the guardian angel of the world, is preparing to fight a war with a country that might eventually acquire nuclear weapons, while another country is closing in on the ability to go into mass production.
Whether they like it or not, the US administration needs to test the theory that North Korea is trying to force the United States into negotiations. That would be humiliating for the US to swallow, but in view of the absence of alternatives it would be wise policy to reverse course and engage with North Korea. However, if such a process doesn't stop the North Korean nuclear enterprise, and quickly, then the administration must either accept a monumental blow to the security of the United States, or prepare for a second major military adventure in Korea -- one that would take place simultaneously, or nearly so, with war against Iraq. The case of Saddam Hussein is dwarfed by the imminence and magnitude of North Korean case. More so, the role as guardian of Uncle Sam is at stake!
The US Secretary of Defense Mr. Donald H. Rumsfeld has confirmed to the world that USA is fully capable to fight two wars simultaneously! Let us wait with crossed fingers and see how Mr. Bush wriggles out the hind leg from North Korean grip!
Abdul Alim is a businessman
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