Russia's Presidential Election: Putin and his Possible Rivals
Russian politicians have set 26th March as the date for the country's Presidential election, kicking off a campaign in which the Acting President Vladimir Putin (47) appears to be the clear favourite to succeed Mr. Boris Yeltsin. The election was originally scheduled in June but the dramatic resignation of President Boris Yeltsin on the new year's eve resulted in the early poll. Under Russia's Constitution, the election should be held within 90 days after the resignation of the President or when the position falls vacant.
The office of the President in Russia has enormous powers. It is not like the office of the President of the USA who can be impeached and can be criticised. He not only sacked three of his cabinets but quite a few Prime Ministers as well. The Russian President can dismiss the Parliament and can appoint a Prime Minister at his will, subject to the confirmation of the lower house of the Parliament (Duma). He is able to control the Press in Russia.
There is a view that the sudden resignation of Boris Yeltsin was prompted partly by the fact of his continuing ill health and partly by the fact that he needed immunity from prosecution for the alleged corruption in the Kremlin prior to his vacating the office. Mr. Yetsin's health was known to be so precarious that he limited to no more than 30 minutes of productive work a day. Mr. Yeltsin killed "two birds in one stone" as both the objectives appear to have been fulfilled. The Acting President Putin decreed that the former President would be immune from prosecution, while at the same time he dismissed Mr. Yeltsin's daughter Tatyana Dyachenko (39) from the advisory position in the Kremlin. This has been a shrewd and calculated move on his part. While protecting his former master Mr. Putin is attempting to distance himself from Yeltsin administration to enable him to get elected in the ensuing Presidential election.
Who is Mr. Putin? Some say that if loyalty is the main prerequisite for a long career inside Yetsin's administration, Mr. Putin has passed the test. In one of his television interviews, he even made his own presidential ambition sound as if it had been ordered by a superior. He said: " It would be awkward if I said I wasn't ready if the President said I was."
Mr. Yeltsin hand picked Mr. Putin in last August. Born in Petersburg Mr. Putin is a son of a locksmith and had spent almost 20 years as an official in KGB, mostly in East Germany. He later became the first Vice-Mayor of the city and reportedly became known as the city administration's "grey cardinal", an indispensable adviser regarded with respect and a touch of fear. He also headed the St. Petersburg Chapter of " Our Home Is Russia", a party began in 1995 to support Mr. Yeltsin's allies in the parliamentary elections. Despite his work as a KGB spy, he is known to have been closely associated with the leading pro-Western market reformer, Anatoly Chubais, best known for spearheading a privatisation drive under President Yeltsin in the 90s.
Mr. Putin said that he hoped the election would build stability in Russia. However, no one clearly knows Mr. Putin's views on the issues facing Russia except Chechnya. What Mr. Putin will actually do if and when he is elected is any one's guess. Mr. Putin seems to be an unknown existence for the Russians because very few people know him except for the fact that he made a name for himself by vigorously waging a war against the Chechen rebels. If he succeeds in the war it is good for him but there is a view that if Chechnya war is bogged down with Russian casualties, then the tide of popularity for him could be reversed.
Many people close to the Kremlin became fabulously rich by controlling natural resources of the country. Some compared these oligarchs to the "robber barons" of the late 19th century in the United States. Another group in Russia is alleged to have made money by corrupt means, even through laundering money and selling off natural resources. There is a view that these oligarchs had been behind the rise of Mr. Putin and recommended Mr. Putin to former President Yeltsin for the position of the Prime Minister.
Who are Mr. Putin's possible rivals in fight for the top job? There are at least five at present. One is Mr. Gennady Zyuganov( 55), the head of the Russian Communist Party. He was able to pick up 40 per cent of the popular vote when he ran for President against Yeltsin in 1996. Another one is Grigory Yavlinsky (47). He is an economist by training and authored "500-day plan" to rescue the Soviet economy with market reform in the Gorbachev era. He is far more popular among foreign policy makers than he is with the average Russian voter. He was able to garner 7 per cent of the vote in 1996 election.
The other candidate is Aman Tuleyev (55). He is the Governor of the Central Siberian Kemerovo mining region. He also ran against Mr. Yeltsin and was able to secure 86.8 per cent vote in 1996. The other two candidates are the two former Prime Ministers, Victor Chernomyrdin and Yevgeny Primakov. The former was dismissed in May 1998 for being too slow on reforms after holding the high office for about six years and the latter was sacked after eight months in office for being too popular with the public.
However, one dark horse appears to be General Alexander Lebed (49) who is the Governor of Krasnoyarsk in the East Siberian region (four times the size of France). He was a hero of Afghanistan war. He came third in the Presidential election in 1996, securing 15 per cent of the vote. He became the Security Adviser to Mr. Yeltsin for a short period and was dismissed by the former President.
The ordinary people did not investigate whether bombings in the apartment in Moscow and in other places were the work of the rebels or the Russian intelligence organisation. No investigative inquiry was known to have been set up to deal with this bombings in Russia. The people in Russia were led to believe that Chechen rebels did the bombings and therefore they continued to support the war and the policy pursued by Mr. Putin against the Chechen rebels. The Russian war, in fact, reportedly killed more civilians than the rebels in Chechnya.
Mr. Putin appears to have at present an overwhelming edge over other possible contestants in the election because of his tough role displayed towards Chechen rebels. Furthermore he will have the full backing of the government and the state-controlled media in the campaign. The centrist coalition that eclipsed the once-dominant Communists in the Duma in the 19 December parliamentary elections could become Mr. Putin's power base. The opposition parties, on the other hand, caught by the sudden resignation of Mr. Yeltsin were scrambling to select candidates and put together campaigns. Several top politicians who had been expected to run are believed to be reconsidering because of Mr. Putin's lead in the poll.
The toughness Mr. Putin likes to project has not been applied to the black spots of Russian society: corruption, rampant tax evasion and crime. Mr. Putin's challenge is what to do after the dust settles over the Chechen war. The failure of the reforms introduced by Yeltsin administration appears to be a tragedy for the Russian people, although lately the economy is gaining strength. However the underlying problems of economy remain endemic.
Given the terrible shadow cast over the 20th century by Soviet totalitarianism, the Western world has a powerful interest in seeing Russia make a successful transition to a market -oriented democracy. The most obvious reason for that interest is that Russia still has vast stockpiles of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Another is that the creation of a strong Russian economy will provide a tonic for global growth.
The question remains: whether Mr. Putin, when elected as President, will be pursuing the path of democracy and accountability in the country and will be able to restore the Russian economy? Whether Mr. Putin will be able to control "the oligarchs" in Russia grown under Yeltsin's administration? No body seems to know at present. For any country other than Russia, the failure would be disheartening and dispiriting. But because it is Russia which holds the world's second largest nuclear arsenal, it could be alarming and threatening to the Western world.
The author, a barrister, is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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