Sonia's Entry, Not Unmixed Blessing
She would rather beg in the streets of Delhi than join politics. This was not the best of expression in defence of Sonia Gandhi. Still Mohammed Younus, who behaves like a member of the Nehru-Indira Gandhi family, used it when there was great pressure on Sonia to lead Congress a few years ago. Her own equivocal response to the loyalists, literally forcing her to preside over the party, made it doubtful whether she would ever take the plunge.
Now that she has, the discussion on why she did it is futile. Instead, the question which needs to be posed is how her electioneering will affect the fortunes of Congress or, for that matter, the Bharatiya Janata Party. However contemptuous the critics may be, she has already made a difference, at least psychologically. For one, desertions in Congress have stopped. Whether her entry will be translated into votes is yet to be seen. But even if she is able to tilt three to four per cent of votes in favour of Congress I would mean 33 more seats for Congress in the two states alone, Maharashtra and Rajasthan.
In Rajasthan, Congress secured 40.51 per cent of the votes polled against BJP's 42.36 per cent in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections. The difference was only that of 1.85 per cent. Again, Maharashtra gave Congress 34.78 per cent while 38.64 per cent to the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, a difference of less than four per cent. There are many seats where Congress lost by a few hundred or a couple of thousand votes. Sonia may effect the necessary tilt to win the party those seats.
The BJP regards Congress as the only viable opposition and is worried over the Sonia factor, which is unknown and untried so far. Already the wave of buoyancy that the party was riding has been stemmed and the initial advantage is dissipating. Some BJP leaders still believe that the regional parties will be more hit than they. Their argument is that Congress, with Sonia, will eat up a substantial support of Muslims, dalits and the backward that the state parties enjoy at present. This is not true. Theirs are now separate set up and space. They will not want to lose them to Congress. In fact, the BJP may be the loser. It is as much closer to the upper castes as Congress is. The Congress gain will be BJP's loss.
Sonia's stronghold may turn out to be the rural electorate, besides women. I found the evidence when I was in Rajasthan a few days ago, after Sonia had announced her intention to campaign for the Congress candidates. Many people and pressmen told me that she wielded influence over villagers, particularly women, who had sympathy for her as the widow of the assassinated prime minister. Even UP, which gave only four out of 85 seats to Congress last time, shows the signs of stirrings after her entry. A BJP leader concedes Congress at least 10 more seats.
Indeed, the dynasty still sells in certain parts of India, more so in the South. One saw how after the Janata's sweep in northern India, following Mrs Gandhi's authoritarian rule from 1975 to 1977, the four southern states, which generally returned Congress, reversed the trend. Five years ago, Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in the midst of elections won Congress more seats in the South than it would have otherwise. Sonia may be a hit below the Vindhayas, although editors of leading newspapers in the four southern states think differently.
I do not believe that she would be the prime minister if and when Congress leads a coalition government at the Centre. That has a different kind of impediments which she may not be able to surmount. Her candidates for the office of prime minister are former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh and former Kerala Chief Minister AK Antony. She may choose any of the two. Nonetheless, if Congress does well, there will be efforts to draft her. She cannot say that she would not go that far. Politics knows no part-time participants.
Sonia should, however, be prepared for the attacks which will be solely directed at her. She should know that before long the names of those who received the kickbacks in the Bofors gun deal will be out. The Italian connection has already been established. And it was her husband who had opened a direct channel other than the official one, to negotiate the deal and to distribute the cut. Her close friend, Ottavio Quttrocchi, linked with the bribes, has fled India with the then Congress government's connivance. Corruption is going to be the main issue in elections and she will be increasingly hearing that Rajiv Gandhi was not Mr Clean.
Will she be able to face all the accusations hurled at her and her husband and how effectively will meet them is the question. The Sonia factor may be important for Congress, which has been desperately looking for a prop. But how does that help her is what she should have assessed before jumping into the arena. She has even endangered the prospects of her children, Priyanka and Rahul, who would have had greater chance after the people had been disillusioned from all. The dynasty card cannot be played twice. I think she has played it a little too early.
Apart from Rajiv Gandhi's misdoings, Sonia's problem will be to explain why she retrained the Italian citizenship even after a decade of her marriage. The note that the Union Home Ministry prepared in 1982, two years before Rajiv Gandhi became the prime minister, has said nothing in her defence. Like other notes by bureaucrats, this was also vague.
The note was entitled, "Shrimati Sonia Gandhi, an Italian, who has not applied for citizenship so far." It said: "Smt Sonia Gandhi, wife of Shri Rajiv Gandhi, MP, has not so far applied for or acquired Indian citizenship. She is staying in India as an Italian national, on the basis of authorised stay facilities granted to her. However, being the wife of an Indian citizen, she is eligible for registration as Indian citizen under Section 5(1) (C) of the citizenship Act 1955". The note further said: "Italian ladies married to Indian citizens, like other foreign wives of Indian citizens, are considered for registration under Section 5(1) (C) of the Act on the basis of Indian citizenship of their husbands." The wording was hog-wash but what it implied was that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi could be an Indian citizen by marriage, but had not chosen to be so.
Before I go further, let me explain what section 5(1) (C) of the Citizenship Act 1955 is. There are two ways to earn Indian citizenship: one, by registration and the other, by naturalisation. Sonia came under the registration clause and section 5(1) (C) which relates to "women married to Indian citizens." Sonia was also governed by the naturalisation clause and for that, according to official sources, "any eligible person will have to apply in the prescribed form through the concerned state government, and if such an application is eventually accepted by the central government, he or she will issued a certificate of naturalisation, after he or she has renounced his or her original nationality." Why did she not embrace citizenship through marriage?
Even after some references here and there Sonia did not renounce her Italian citizenship. So much so, she allowed her name to be deleted from the electoral rolls in Delhi, indicating that she did not want to be an Indian national. She must have weighed at that time the advantages and disadvantages to Rajiv Gandhi. Ultimately, she became an Indian citizen, only a few months before Rajiv Gandhi assumed prime ministership.
Congress has, no doubt, got vigorated after Sonia's entry. Workers are particularly rejuvenated because they feel that she may ignite the embers of the dynasty's glory once again. What they - and the party - overlook is the baggage she has brought with her, the baggage of Bofors gun kickbacks and other shady deals effected during the regimes of Rajiv Gandhi but also Mrs Gandhi. And in the background was the extra-constitutional authority of Sanjay Gandhi. All those horrible memories may stir up again. She may not turn out to be an unmixed blessing.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments