Matters around us
South Asia came across a tumultuous and eventful year
How South Asia would look like in the new year? Fears of a war between India and Pakistan have not receded as the two neighbours continue to toe their respective positions on their known disputes and tensions may again flare up surrounding any incident. The region may remain volatile for a considerable period of time although it is now relatively better. In Sri Lanka, the prospects of resolution of the longdrawn civil war with the Tamil militants have brightened significantly although the task is still difficult. Nepal is fighting Maoist insurgency for which a state of emergency was declared and later withdrawn...
The year 2002 has been a period of big occurrences, both eventful and tumultuous in nature for South Asia, and only seldom a year for this region was so much cynosure of all eyes. The new year carries the hang-over of the preceding one in matters of tensions and alarms, which pose a big threat to peace and stability here in the coming days. All the five major regional countries barring the small Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan and tiny Indian island state of Maldives witnessed events of international interest and importance during the year that we have just come across. The issue that will remain to be seen in the 2003 is whether the new year would also be a phase of curiosity and matter of discussions for the South Asia either in positive or negative perspective. But one thing is certain -- the region would continue as an international flashpoint at least for some time to come in the new year while not much domestic events in the individual countries are expected in the new year warranting wide scale attention. The rivalry between two south Asian neighbours -- India and Pakistan -- remained a major concern for the region as much as it has been for the international community.
During the 2002,some countries of the region hogged headlines in the international press because of their internal developments like elections in Pakistan in October 10 leading to the installation of a civilian government while the military strongman remains at the helm in a somewhat complex situation. The last months of the year saw Sri Lanka, afflicted by a longdrawn civil war, inching towards a permanent settlement of the "Tamil" problem despite differences between the president and the prime minister of the country on the basic approach towards the Tamil rebels. Political stability remains a mirage for Nepal, where the King dismissed an elected government and appointed a Royalist prime minister disregarding the clamour of protests by most politicians amidst a deteriorating law and order scenario caused by the Maoist insurgency. For Bangladesh and India, the elected governments faced no major trouble but opposition sought to keep the pot boiling. Main Indian opposition party Congress won in several state assembly polls raising prospects of a comeback in power at the centre when the national elections take place after about two years but the ruling BJP won massively in Gujarat, scene of one of the worst communal disturbances in recent times, despite allegations that its state government turned a blind eye to the minorities during the communal trouble, and controversial chief minister Narendra Modi returned in the same position taking a pro-Hindu stance in the polls. India's secular political forces described this as a setback to secular fabric of the country and cautioned all about the rise of communalism.
Earlier in 2001, the Afghan crisis triggered by the massive terrorist attack in the United States shifted global attention to South Asia and its neighbourhood as world's only superpower led an "anti-terrorism" coalition which toppled the Taliban regime in the embattled Afghanistan and sent its leader Mollah Omar into hiding. But far more important is the main suspect of the terrorist attack in the USA, Osama Bin Laden, the Saudi dissident sheltered by the Taliban in Afghanistan, whose whereabouts remain shrouded in mystery after his men along with the Taliban have almost been reduced to ground by the mighty United States in collaboration with the anti-Taliban Afghan forces. The whole thing began with the terrorism in New York and Washington on September 11 and the subsequent tough but anticipated American response made Afghanistan and its surroundings the area of attention for the world. Then came the Indo-Pakistan tensions leading to a near-war situation which has put the whole world in a state of fear and anxiety because both the South Asian rivals are equipped with dangerous atomic weapons and the consequences of possible use of such arms are wellknown. True, the belligerence between these two countries is not anything new but this time the tensions have acquired alarming proportions because they are atomic powers. A war has been averted but the possibility of use of nuclear weapons in any Indo-Pakistan conflict remains still distinct in the event of a war.
The Indo-Pakistan tensions were the matters of anxiety for the international world for sometime past and it was only in late 2002 that the two countries have largely withdrawn their troops from the borders and this helped reduce the danger of a war. Earlier, several developments infuriated both sides and the consequent outcome is simply an explosive condition along their borders with both taking all preparedness for a full-blown conflict. Finally, the tensions subsided but as far as their main bone of contention is concerned, the stand-off continues even though none is talking of the possibility of a war at this stage.
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka had their governments changed in 2001 through general elections and the line up to the polls in both the countries was violent claiming many lives. However, in Colombo, president Chandrika Kumaratunga remains at the helm despite the defeat of her party-led alliance because of the presidential system of government that constitutionally allows the powerful president to remain in the office till the term is over regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary polls although the government headed by the prime minister runs the country. A co-habitation government is working in the country under great uneasiness since the president is known to be not much favourably disposed to the current peace process with the Tamils while prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe is determined to carry forward the peace efforts.
Certainly, South Asia hogged headlines in the international media several times during the 2002,particularly in the last half because of a variety of reasons. These reasons were both positive and negative in nature but fact remains that the region was very much at the focal point of the international attention. On one hand, healthy political and other developments occurred and on the other, spectre of serious tensions is still persisting. The growing global tensions centering United States-Iraq imbroglio has had its share in this region as well since Iraq is not far away from South Asia and any war there would have colossal impact here in many ways as much the Afghan situation had although Afghanistan is not exactly in South Asia. However, there is also a qualitative difference between Afghan and Iraq tangles.
How South Asia would look like in the new year? Fears of a war between India and Pakistan have not receded as the two neighbours continue to toe their respective positions on their known disputes and tensions may again flare up surrounding any incident. The region may remain volatile for a considerable period of time although it is now relatively better. In Sri Lanka, the prospects of resolution of the longdrawn civil war with the Tamil militants have brightened significantly although the task is still difficult. Nepal is fighting Maoist insurgency for which a state of emergency was declared and later withdrawn. Political parties there are impatiently waiting for polls for a representative government replacing the present handpicked one by the king. Nepal faces twin problems of Maoist challenge to dismantle the monarchy and establishing a republic while reconciliation between the political parties and the King remains a major problem for the nation. In Pakistan, mainstream opposition seems to have taken a back seat at the moment following the last general polls in which two main political leaders could not contest and remained abroad. The pro-military new civilian government is working well with president General Pervez Musharraf. Other countries may not witness anything very serious internally but will not be without incidents and events. The next SAARC summit which was scheduled to take place in Pakistan in January 2003, has been called off indefinitely. The postponement was once again due to Indo-Pak differences. It remains to be seen when this summit is reconvened. Much will depend on the fate of the summit as far as the good neighbourliness and furtherance of cooperation among South Asian nations are concerned. The region will continue to be the focus of interest in the new year.
Zaglul A. Chowdhury is a senior journalist
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments