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South Asia's Trials and Tribulations in '98
In 1998 the global attention was, beyond doubt, on South Asia. There have been events which are rather unusual, if not unprecedented. While India and Pakistan put their nuclear ability on display, their hapless neighbour Bangladesh negotiated with the worst flood of the century in its history.
There were bright patches as well. Amartya Sen became the first Asian to receive the Nobel Prize in economics and the tiny Himalayan country of Bhutan took a small but sure step towards democracy with the monarch relaxing his authority. There were areas which generated hopes and definitely had a sobering effect on the disturbing developments in the region.
How will this year be? Will the region continue to draw global attention or will the interest die down? What kind of events is expected in 1999? How are South Asian states behaving in international context, within the SAARC ambit and at the bilateral plane? And, last but not the least, would there be any change in domestic affairs of these countries?
For many years, ties at the bilateral level among South Asian countries have been bedevilled by disputes of varying degree. There have occasionally been some orchestrated endeavours at the bilateral plane but the scenario, by and large, remains one of doubt and distrust. Emergence of SAARC aside, there has not been any qualitative improvement of this unhealthy condition.
The worst was in store for 1998. Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government in India rather unexpectedly ordered a series of nuclear explosions in early drawing immediate riposte from fierce foes Pakistan, who detonated a few of its own later that month. The developments, although not unusual given the bitter ties that exist between the two, bore a clear message - South Asia was turning into a volatile region. The bitter and belligerent rivals in possession of nuclear clearly had the international community, particularly their regional neighbours, envisaging a bleak future.
The tension, however, subsided to some extent after Vajpayee and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif met on the sidelines of an international conference and announced that both wanted to maintain peace in the region. The two leaders have met more than once since the explosion of nuclear devices and the overall situation has improved significantly. Nevertheless, the danger remains and there is every likelihood that this condition will prevail until they sign the CTBT and the NPT.
Meanwhile, the SAARC is progressing well although the critics say that the advance is slow and not up to the expectations. However, the SAARC, when mooted in 1985, was not designed to move at a spectacular pace given the inherent differences in the region in one hand and resource constraints on the other. So, the progress, despite its slow speed, is welcome. But the most useful and worthwhile scope that the forum provides to the feuding nations is to meet each other at the highest level. Discussions on the contentious bilateral issues are not permitted by the SAARC, still, every summit or other level meetings certainly leave a sobering effect as witnessed last year.
On the domestic front, each country in the region had their shares of trouble. General elections in India produced fractured verdict. The spectre of instability has haunted the multi-party coalition government ever since and many feel that India have may to hold mid-term elections in 1999. While the Congress and its new leader Sonia Gandhi may be contemplating a comeback to power, the leftist and centrist secular forces would certainly seek to consolidate their strength. The BJP, the dominant party in the coalition, on the other hand, would surely strive to maintain the ascendancy it has gained in recent times.
Pakistan has had problems on many matters including introduction of a "Shariah Bill" despite the ruling Muslim League enjoying huge majority in the lower house of the parliament. The opposition may not be strong but indeed determined. Violence in Karachi took many lives including that of respected philanthropist Hakim Mohammad Saeed. This may exacerbate next year while the ruling party maintains a strong grip in the saddle.
In Sri Lanka, President Chandrika Kumartunga continues to fight with the LTTE with no respite expected in the near future. Nepal, too, is experiencing political instability and may continue to do so in the future with the Nepali Congress or other claimants for power lacking requisite majority in the house to form a stable government. Bhutan and Maldives - two smallest members in the region - are relatively peaceful. And in Bangladesh, one can expect a more politically intense year in 1999. The flood caused catastrophic effects and the government met them with admirable skills. But in other areas, the government and the opposition are at daggers drawn and this may worsen in the coming days.
South Asia is the home of more than one billion people but most of them are mired in abject poverty. People have longed for a happy and healthy life of minimum standard but most of the countries have so far failed to ensure that. Expenditures in sectors other than the social welfare areas have increased. In the midst of all these, comes a fitting tribute to an economist who has worked for years on poverty and famine in the shape of the Nobel Prize. Professor Amartya Sen is, in a way, a son of this soil and Bangladesh has all the reasons to feel proud at this recognition. While this certainly is the best gift to South Asia in 1998, one can only hope against hope that poverty and famine will diminish from the populous region as far as possible. But for this many pre-requisites are needed, foremost being the sincere efforts on part of those who govern and those who matter.
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