Between the Lines
South Remains Distant for BJP
I have visited all the four southern states, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the last few days. There is no dramatic turn of event. No person of any consequence has left Congress or joined the Bhartiya Janata Party; no media hype either. Unlike the North, the South is calm and collected.
It is too early to guess how the four states will vote because political parties and candidates are yet to take their firm position. But the climate and mood, which determine elections, are perceptibly clear. My experience tells me that unless there is a wave, the people do not change their mind which, in many areas of the South, seems to have been made up. Before I discuss the states individually, let me first give my general impression.
One thing that comes out strongly is the people's unhappiness over too many mid-term polls. They find them unnecessary, inopportune and expensive. They spare no political party or, for that matter, leader when apportioning blame for the current situation. The BJP is mentioned cursorily. They, however, wonder if anyone is serious about setting things right. Their fear is that the country will be hauled over more political uncertainties, more economic difficulties and more valueless politics. Some even believe that there will be yet another mid-term poll before the end of the century.
The type of cynicism you find at certain places is so raw that you can bite it. The very future of the system is being questioned. There is deep disillusionment with the instruments of governance and those who wield it, including the bureaucracy. This may lower the turnout, which has averaged 45 per cent in the South in previous elections.
Whatever the rhetoric or reading of the BJP in the North, it has very little support in the South. I do not find it getting even 10 seats on its own symbol in a total of some 135 the four states have in the Lok Sabha. There are different reasons in different areas. But they have one thing in common: the party has only a few pockets of influence. Pockets do not win constituencies.
Talking about reasons, take Kerala. The BJP is confined to Trivandrum city and Kasargoad on the Kerala-Karnataka border. The voters favouring the party may not go beyond one lakh and one and a half lakh, respectively. BJP chief L K Advani launched election campaign in the South a few days ago from Kollam, a wayside town in the state. There may have been ripples. But even that had subsided after 48 hours of his departure.
The reason why the BJP does not make any headway in Kerala is the state's secular temperament. The people are educated and they do not want communalism to muddy their waters. Although Advani avoided the Ram Mandir from his speech at Kollam and said that his party would uphold "the principles of true secularism, justice and equality" yet there were very few takers. Nor was there any attention paid to "a democratic front" which the BJP has proposed in the state. The Muslims have two Leagues and the Christians have the Kerala Congress. Education minister Mani's group has distanced itself from it. But these parties are not seen parochial because of their anti-fundamentalist postures. In comparison, Hindu Munnanai, the BJP's front organisation, is seen as a fanatic and it behaves that way.
The state has 20 Lok Sabha seats. At present 10 are with Congress-led combination, United Democratic Front, and 10 with the Communists (Left Democratic Front). The ruling communist front looks like losing two or three, provided the efforts to bring the two Congress rivals, A K Anthony and K Karunakaran, bear fruit. Both leaders have initiated unity moves.
The voters are committed either to Congress or the Communists. But since the latter are in power, the ever-rising unemployment is making some, particularly those in the middle, critical of the communists. The loss for one will be the gain for the other. The BJP is not even in the picture.
The BJP's alliance with the AIADMK may help the party register its presence in Tamil Nadu. But even the optimists do not give it more than two to three seats. The people's apathy towards the BJP is because it is regarded as a North India party, ingrained in Hindi chauvinism, the price of which the Tamil Nadu paid heavily in 1965 when Hindi was sought to be made the main language of the Union. The Muslims are dead against the party. The recent rioting in Coimbatore - some 25 Muslims were killed and goods worth Rs 300 crore looted or destroyed - had further tarnished its image.
The real players in the state are the ruling DMK and the AIADMK. The DMK had an edge, not because it heads the state government but because the Jain Commission's over-sweeping remarks against the Tamils in the report on Rajiv Gandhi assassination has given the party a poll plank, which evokes emotions and local feelings. The BJP's resolution deploring Jain's remarks against the Tamils appears to have gone unnoticed. Jayalalitha, head of the AIADMK, has recovered the ground a bit, although the taint of corruption keeps her still down. Atal Behari Vajpayee's defence that the charges against her are yet to be proved has not helped her because the BJP had practically no base in the state except a few pockets in Nagercoil, south Chennai and Coimbatore.
Tamil Maanila Congress headed by G K Moopanar has the benefit of having alignment with the DMK. But Moopanar's equivocal attitude towards Congress may cost the party some seats. Congress may pick up two or three this time as compared to the last time when it won none. In any case, the BJP may again draw a blank, although its alliance with Jayalalitha will give it the "much-needed political space in the state," as the RSS ideologue Govindacharya has said.
Not long ago, the BJP had secured 28.4 per cent votes in Karnataka. If fell down steeply despite its winning six seats. An alliance with Ramakrishna Hegde's Lok Shakti, if reached, may not improve the party's fortunes. Being a Brahmin, he represents the upper castes, which are already tilting towards the BJP. S Bangarappa would have been a more effective ally because he, being a backward, can attract votes of the backward. Congress has harmed itself by crowding him out.
Still, the real fight in the state is between the ruling Janata Dal and Congress. Hegde may harm the Dal and the party is doing a damage control act by wooing Bangarappa for an alliance. The BJP lacks local leadership to take advantage of the Dal's unpopularity and demoralisation in the Congress ranks. After the Hubli ldgah had the national flag aloft, the BJP has practically no card to play.
Lakshmi Parvathi, wife of the late chief minister N T Rama Rao, is no more a force, either politically or emotionally. By hooking its wagon with her, the BJP has merely gone on record in Andhra Pradesh. The ground reality is that Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu may have lost the sheen but not the experience, having won the last three elections. The scraping of prohibition and subsidy on rice has made a dent into his support. Yet his overall performance, particularly his grip on the administration, may make up for what he has lost otherwise.
His Telugu Desam's main confrontation is with Congress. Both have lost one tall leader each: D Narayana Rao has bolted the Telugu Desam to launch his own party, the Telugu Talli and N Bhaskara Rao has left Congress. The BJP hopes to cash in on the damage the two will cause to their respective parties. Here too its local leadership is extremely weak. The BJP won once the Secunderabad seat, which is now with the son of P V Narasimha Rao, former prime minister. It is trying to regain that. A party which drew a blank in the last Lok Sabha poll is not likely to make a good showing.
True, the BJP is slightly better placed in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka than before. Alliances in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have given it some space. But alliances do not make the wave, something which the BJP is claiming. Probably, Advani gives a peep into the party's strategy when he says that the party will widen its base. Probably so. But very little in terms of seats.
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