Spotlight on Middle East
Syria-Israel Talks on Hold Barak Turns to Arafat
Syria-Israel formal peace talks for over ten days in Shepherdstown, USA during the very first days of the New Year faltered on many fronts despite repeated intervention by President Clinton himself. The very fact that President Assad of Syria decided not to sit face to face with Prime Minister Barak and talk reflected Syria's doubt about the progress let alone success of the talk. Moreover, President Assad was obviously not prepared to be present in the talk and remain under constant pressure from President Clinton to be flexible on various issues. Any way, the impression was, however, given that President Assad was not physically fit enough to undertake such a strenuous and long talk with young Prime Minister Barak. Apparently President Clinton made sincere efforts to fill up the gap and keep the talks going.
President Clinton himself conceded that there were differences of opinion on major issues that kept the parties apart. The issues are - Israel's full withdrawal from Golan Heights that it captured in 1967 war, security guarantees to Israel in the event of withdrawal, full diplomatic relation between Syria and Israel, sharing of water etc. Israel appeared to have reconciled with the idea of vacating the major part of Golan Height against full security guarantees to Israel. This was clearly reflected in the statement that Prime Minister Barak made in the Knesset before leaving for Washington for the talk. He talked about the painful price the Israelis would have to pay for peace with Syria. But as the talk progressed Syria pressed for full withdrawal but Israel wanted some limited sensitive areas to remain under joint control for the purpose of security. Israel indeed wanted to install early warning system in Hermon mountain and also wanted to set the border as was drawn by the British and French Mandate authorities in 1923. But Syria insisted on the border as stood before 1967 war. The difference seems to be on - 'who will control the Eastern Shore of the Sea of Galilee'.
Golan Height is extremely important for both countries but it belonged to Syria before 1967 war. However, the Israelis say it's a part of their "Promised Land" which they recovered in '67 war. Golan is a strategic plateau from where Syrians can easily deliver rockets and bombs to Israel thus endangering the security of Israel. Therefore, Israel wants proper security arrangement in place before it vacates Golan and hence tough bargaining on the issue. For Syria it's the security as well as the sovereignty issue. It does not want any Israeli control over Golan. Golan is also a fertile water rich plateau that attracted many Israelis for the purpose of agriculture and particularly for fruit production. Recent figures put Israeli population in Golan at 17,000. It's not a big number that could resist the handing over of the plateau to Syria. However, these settlers in Golan have their supporters in Israel proper and the recent big rally numbering about 100,000 at Tel Aviv protested against the proposed handing over of Golan to Syria.
Shepherdstown talk did not produce anything concrete. It was not expected either. However, President Clinton's personal interventions did produce a working document identifying the areas of agreements and disagreements. Unfortunately the areas of disagreements were so large that those of the agreements really got obscured. However, they agreed to meet again on January 19. On return Syrian Foreign Minister Faroque al Sharah reported the results of the talk to his boss President Assad and proposed date for the next talk. As there was no direct commitment from Prime Minister Barak on Golan pull-out, Syria decided not to attend the talk on January 19. Syria openly asked for Prime Minister Barak's commitment on full Golan withdrawal and no further talk until the commitment is received. Obviously this was intended to bring pressure on Prime Minister Barak to come up with his commitment on full withdrawal from Golan.
Thus Syria-Israel talk is on hold and January 19 has passed by. The White House is very concerned about the developments though Secretary Albright termed it as "one of many' ups and downs" of Middle East peace making". She also said, "the logic of peace has been compelling for Israelis, Arabs and Palestinians" and they all "genuinely desire peace". Though the talk did not take place some low-level experts would be dispatched by both sides to Washington to work on the technical aspects of the issues. President Clinton's personal concern over the stalemate led him to telephone President Assad. The hour-long talk was termed by the White House as "useful" as there was a "good chance to review the issues". Obviously President Clinton urged President Assad to be flexible.
One of the key players of the peace axis, President Mobarak, already went to Damascus to meet President Assad. Obviously both Prime Minister Barak and President Clinton wanted President Mobarak to lend his support. Undoubtedly, President Mobarak himself is interested in comprehensive M-E peace. Indeed, his country led the process in 1977 when late President Anwar Saadat visited Jerusalem and addressed the Israeli parliament.
President Assad is apparently hopeful of getting Golan back as Prime Minister Barak was preparing his people for the pull-out. He also knows that he will have to give appropriate security guarantees to Israel against full Golan withdrawal, as otherwise there would be no deal. President Assad's strength lies in Lebanon and particularly in south Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister is promise-bound to fully withdraw from self-declared security zone in south Lebanon by the middle of this year. President Assad will still have over 40,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon. The attrition war is, however, run by Hezbullah with the support of Iran. Thus Northern Israel continues to remain vulnerable. The situation could change dramatically in south Lebanon in favour of Israel if Israel can have the peace deal with Syria. President Assad could deal in his own way with Hezbullah. Prime Minister Barak, being the former Chief of Staff of Israel, knows the military situation very well and hence the need for full Golan withdrawal. Peace with Syria is likely to give Israel the needed security from Syria and particularly in the strategic Golan region and relative peace in northern Israel. Moreover, the good prospect of a peace agreement with Syria may make the negotiations with Palestinians somewhat less difficult.
However, to offset the present setback, apparently a temporary one, in the Syrian track Prime Minister Barak immediately turned his attention to Palestinian sector. He hurriedly met President Arafat who already had some suspicion of being left out. The sudden announcement by Israeli Prime Minister of delay of handing over to the Palestinian Authority the balance 6.1 per cent of occupied land which is nearer to East Jerusalem - the site designated by the Palestinians as the integral part of their capital - also aggravated the already tense situation. Apparently, this has been sorted out and the land transfer would now take place in about two weeks' time.
Later President Arafat flew to Washington and met President Clinton in the White House and expressed his concern that February 13 deadline to work out the framework of the Final Accord may not be met if the sluggishness in the talk continues. Indeed all the major issues separating the two sides remain unresolved though it was agreed in Sharm-el-Sheikh that the framework agreement has to be reached by Feb 13 and final Peace Accord by September 2000. He sought President Clinton's "personal intervention" to sort out the issues. President Arafat said, "dates are important". Though President Clinton said that issues are difficult, he apparently insisted that these are clear. He was optimistic about the M-E peace and added "I am going to do everything I can every day I've got to try to achieve it". Secretary Albright was still more optimistic; she said," We are coming close to settling history's longest dispute". She must not, however, forget that this is Middle-East dispute. The world can only hope for the best.
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