The Central Bank Report
Like in most other years, the Bangladesh Bank Annual Report for fiscal 1996-97 has been released six months behind the Calendar date. It had better been published in July-August 1997 to be of greater relevance. So, it cannot read very novel or crispy, especially given the fact that no aspect of the 1996-97 economy had been spared statistical analyses and critical appreciations in the local media and among donor agencies beforehand. Hence, a study of the just-released Bangladesh Bank annual report can only be meaningful if it is done in conjunction with a close look taken at the economic score-card of the first half of fiscal 1997-98 which we have crossed.
The 1996-97 fiscal ended with a GDP growth rate of 5.7 per cent as compared with 5.4 per cent in the preceding year. Agriculture came to the rescue again, growing at a rate of 6 per cent compared with 3.7 per cent recorded the year before. It was a good crop year, rendered so by largely calamity-free weather conditions. By contrast, as the first reports of high rice prices suggested Aman harvest might not be up to our best expectations.
In order to sustain the GDP growth rate to a point where it can stabilise at 7 per cent we obviously need to strengthen the industrial sector which has been thrown completely out of gear in recent years. When in 1995-96 industrial growth was estimated at 5.3 per cent it was regarded as a major cause for concern since 10-11 per cent industrial growth had been recorded previously. And more frustratingly it plummeted further by 2 per cent during fiscal 1996-97 largely because of severe disruptions in power and gas supplies which ought to be more under human control than the natural vagaries that affect the fate of agriculture one way or the other.
Bangladesh Bank's recipe for greater industrial investments strikes a responsive chord with us. Indeed, new projects and programmes will have to be adopted and implemented, but given the project implementation rate under the current ADP, reported to be "the lowest ever since 1973," radical steps are certainly warranted in this area. The impediments to better aid disbursement and utilisation must be removed in consultation with donors and by setting our own house in order. The thought that poor ADP performance has come as a saving grace in the light of declining revenue collection must not be entertained any more; for, this can make us complacent and inactive on both counts with dire consequences for the national economy.
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