Indian elections
The Congress and the Sonia Factor
By Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury
AS the Indian national elections are drawing nearer, different factors are coming up one after another to determine the poll scenario and the developments are being assessed in terms of successes or failures of the major political forces vying for power in the largest democracy of the world. The elections themselves are taking place in an unusual two years time than the last polls took place since the lower house of parliament (Lokshaba) is generally elected for a five-year term. In the earlier days after the independence of India, the parliament used to complete its full term but gone are those days and now an era has begun since about last two decades when seldom a house can complete full term owing to lack of strong command by a single party in parliament or political instability.
However, the P V Narasimha Rao government, which came to power after the 1991 polls riding a crest of sympathy caused by the assassination of party president Rajiv Gandhi could complete the five-year term even though the Congress, when it formed the government, lacked absolute majority in the house and had taken others' support to come to power. Rao government remained firm in the saddle due to certain factors including good fortunes for the prime minister. But this was not to be the case in the subsequent days when after the 1996 elections the single largest party took office in the South Bloc but it - Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - bowed out of government only after twelve days despite having a charismatic leader like Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The subsequent period till the present situation saw two governments coming to power and both by the centre-left coalition of the United Front but with two different prime ministers. The fall of the UF governments on both occasions stemmed from withdrawal of the crucial support by the Congress which helped the UF form the government by extending the support. The country had no other option but to go for fresh snap elections.
While three major political forces are the key players to form the next government in India, the 112-year-old traditional Congress that led India to its independence from the British rule, is fighting a case of near-survival in the coming elections. Never before the organisations faced such a critical polls as far as its interest and utility is concerned and it also did not have to face such a leadership crisis in the past. And obviously under this condition, the Congress has turned to the heritage of the "Nehru" family which is often compared to the "Kennedys" of the United States. Not only the 51-year old enigmatic and reclusive widow of former prime minister and Congress president Rajiv Gandhi is being persuaded to campaign for the party to refurbish its image and boost chances in the hustings but her 25-year-old daughter Priyanka is also being wooed to contest the coming elections in a bid to project to the electorate that the Nehru family is very much with the Congress and the linkage is felt on the ground.
How far will Sonia Gandhi be able to improve the chances of the beleaguered Congress in the coming elections? Does this party stand any chance to form the government after the polls on its own or even with the support of others? And of course, what potentials Congress holds in the Indian politics in the future? There is no denying that the decision of the Italian-born widow of Rajiv Gandhi has introduced a new election of inspiration for the Congress on the eve of the voting. She has agreed to campaign for the organisation seriously and this has already made some impact on the election prospects of the party.
Sonia, after the killing of her husband by a suspect Tamil suicide bomber in the southern Tamil Nadu state in 1991, remained largely behind the curtain ignoring appeals from the party leaders that she take up the charge of the organisation of which her husband, mother-in-law Indira Gandhi and grand father-in-law Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru were the undisputed leaders. Sonia was known to be lukewarm when husband Rajiv had joined politics in 1982 to fill the vacuum caused by the untimely death of younger brother Sanjay in a stunt plane crash in the Indian capital. But mother Indira's insistence that he take up the reigns of family politics rather forced Rajiv Gandhi, a professional airlines pilot, to throw his hat into the rings. Rajiv occupied all the highest posts in his not-too-long a political career by initially becoming a member of the parliament, then general secretary of the Congress, subsequently prime minister and president of the party and also the leader of the opposition. Still, Sonia was known to have preferred that her husband maintain a quiet family life away from the glare of the most notable political family of the country.
As such, after Rajiv's assassination, a shocked Sonia Gandhi was more confined in her personal life with daughter Priyanka and son Rahul and showed scant interest in the political milieu of the country. However, she did keep some links at later stage with the Congress affairs and many important party leaders would keep her posted about party matters. They would often look for unofficial guidance from the 10, Janpath - the residence of Sonia Gandhi. Sonia also at times gave vent to her feelings on different matters. Prime Minister and Congress president Narasimha Rao was not in good terms with her and once she made it abundantly clear that she disliked Rao when they were together at a function commemorating Rajiv Gandhi. Sonia also implicitly criticised the former Congress government for not taking enough steps to unearth the plot behind killing of Rajiv. But when Congress lost the last polls and was bowed out of office, pressure further mounted on her to lead the party which was in disarray owing to infighting, frustration and lack of attractive leadership. Narasimha Rao had to quit party chief's position making way for Sitaram Kesri but he too lacks charisma.
The Congress which had always depended heavily on attractive leadership is suffering from it for quite sometime. The position of the party has eroded in the eyes of the people in recent past for many people consider Congress as responsible for forcing an early election. First, it withdrew support from the Deve Gowda government without any strong reason causing the fall of government - presumably Mr Kesri taking a chance to bring Congress to power and thereby himself becoming the Prime Minister. But Kesri's move boomeranged and he had to eat his own words when the Congress not only failed to form government but had to support a new government of the UF. The withdrawal of support from the Gujral government on the issue of Jain Commission report on assassination of Rajiv Gandhi was more plausible but here too, many felt that the UF government should have been given more time to remain in power before a midterm election is forced upon the nation. After all, the Lok Shaba had completed much less than half of its term by then.
Congress is a secular party with centrist policy. It is vehemently opposed to the communal forces like the BJP and others and at the same time its relations with the leftists are not good. The centrist parties like the Janata Dal of prime minister Gujral are its main rivals despite commonalty in ideology. It had some allies in the now powerful regional parties but some of them have abandoned the Congress like the Anna DMK of former chief minister Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu. And such developments like West Bengal's firebrand popular leader Ms Mamta Banerjee leaving the party came as a big setback. It makes a desperate bid to come to power but few would believe that Congress will form the next government in India. In fact, many feel it would be difficult for the party to retain the 140 seats in the 545-member house.
Sonia Gandhi has joined the politics and the Congress, and has now taken up the responsibility to campaign for the organisation at a very difficult time. She commands respect in the party and also, to a large extent, among the Indian People. But once she is in the game, she had also to face onslaughts from the opponents like the BJP, UF and even the leftists. Her being a foreigner, allegations by the critics that she had links in the multi-million dollar "Bofors arms purchase scandal" when her husband was prime minister and what led to the fall of Rajiv government, her disinterest in the politics over the last few years etc. will be used by the opponents against her. The BJP has already said "people want Lord Rama and not the Roma" - meaning that it is the Hindu religious party which people want and not Sonia, who is from Italy. Possibly, Sonia wanted to avoid these things and remained aloof from seriously involving herself in party affairs. But now that she is very much in the fray, she may have to face the realities. The situation is also vulnerable to the exposure of the "myth" that surrounds her about her ability to attract people and provide dynamism to the party.
One must agree that the Nehru family enjoys the aura of invincibility in the Indian politics. It remains to be seen to what extent it still persists. Sonia Gandhi is certainly a force for the Congress and her decision to campaign for the party has already stopped exit of Congress leaders and workers to other organisations. The workers see a new ray of hope. Her campaign in the crucial Hindi heart land like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar may help Congress improve its seats-tally in the polls. But it is unlikely to be enough for the organisation to be reckoned with as a force for power in the next polls unless its 'condition' is improved in a spectacular manner.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments