PERSPECTIVES
The Middle East Peace Process: Now the Endgame?
THE Middle East peace process as envisaged in Oslo Accord, after being stalled and even stopped more often than not, seems to have picked up new momentum. An interesting combination of factors have started to propel it forward although the Accord's stipulated timeframe has since been rendered null and void. When the peace provisions were secretly hammered out in Oslo before 1993 declaration of principles in Washington by the PLO and Israel the basis of the peace worked out at Camp David - the land for peace - was very much in the back of the minds of the peace brokers. If had a great lure for the Arabs who were smarting under the insult of the loss of their territories conquered by Israel - their arch enemy. As expected, Israeli's Arab neighbours eventually fell in line, one after another, to bite the bait.
Anwar Sadat, credited with creating second United Arab Republic together with Syria and Libya in 1972 and inflicting first initial defeat to Israelis in 1973 Arab-Israeli war succumbed to the temptation in 1979 and was the first Arab leader to sign a peace deal with Israel after 1969 war. Egypt was joined by the Palestinians in 1993 and the Jordanians in 1994 both of whom signed separate agreements with Tel Aviv that - in case of PLO - gave back control of Gaza and some parts of the conquered territories in the West Bank to the Palestinians. Jordan had to settle for a somewhat more modest gain. But both Jordan and Palestinians pledged peace to Israel by recognising, like Egypt, its right to exist as a sovereign bonafide entity in their midst.
As a result, while a peace and security regime in West Asia - however fragile it could be - was shaping up, there was one exception. Syria remained adamant that 'only a complete withdrawal to pre-1967 frontier' and compensation for evacuation of the Arabs from the conquered territories would ensure peace. Israel, unwilling to give up Jerusalem, complete West Bank or Golan Heights balked at this price. But Israel has never been wanting in its awareness that peace will be elusive even if only one of the neighbours sharing border with her remains hostile.
Based on this awareness, the electoral victory of Ehud Barak, as the country's new prime minister has portended the beginning of a fresh assessment of the peace prospects in the Middle East. The Barak government seems to have resorted to soft options in handling relations not only with the Palestinians but also other Arab neighbours. Mr Barak does not want to up the ante during negotiations as his predecessor Mr Netanyahu did.
Without waiting for reciprocity in terms of security, he displayed a positive gesture by allowing a long-awaited 'safe passage' between West Bank and Gaza Strip - a significant step towards full statehood for the Palestinians. The passage will connect up Palestinians divided between the patches of West Bank and Gaza apart from having its positive effects on other peace clauses. Barak's government has also permitted the return of hardline Palestinian opposition leaders from exile in Syria.
Earlier, Prime Minister Barak sprung a surprise by announcing an army pull back from South Lebanon. All these moves suggest that the government of Yahud Barak is guided by greater sense of pragmatism and, enlightened self-interest than that of his impulsive predecessor. After having clipped the wings of both Palestinians and Jordan by obtaining their recognition Israel's eye must now be fixed or Syria - the last of Israel's thorns.
In the meantime, President Clinton in the last year of his presidency wants to wind up the most ambitious of his peace missions - a comprehensive peace in the Middle East to a point of friction. The peace brokers are convinced by this time that it is Hafiz Al Asad of Syria with whom lies the key to wrap up the peace process in the Middle East. Only he has the power to give green signal to any agreement in Lebanon which is virtually a Syrian protectorate and convince the Syrians brought up on a fanatical anti-Israel rhetoric that there can be peace between the two countries. It was not thus surprising that in a flurry of animated diplomacy the people like Nelson Mandela and Ms Albright recently flew peace missions to Damascus. Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy indicated at the same time that secret contacts were 'taking place with Syria'. Even if Israel was reluctant to return all occupied lands to her Arab neighbours she seems prepared to hand over strategic Golan Heights to Syria. Because peace with Syria is overwhelmingly important to Israel at this stage. Not only it closes the net, without peace with Syria her peace with other Arab neighbours also is not workable. Therefore Israel is ready to pay any price for it. Prime Minister Barak has already been preparing the Jewish settlers of the Golam Heights to evacuate the plateau eventually.
Syria also on her part was unexpectedly responsive to Israeli overtures. During his 28-year rule Hafiz Al Asad put up the toughest resistance to any effort to make peace with Israel. But now in Damascus where the focus has belatedly shifted to economic development from the dreams of Arab resistance there is near unanimity on the need for peace provided lands taken over from Syria by Israel are returned. Certainly a peace pact with Israel with attendant economic benefits will also help ensure a smooth succession which has reached a crucial stage with President Asad now in poor state of health. Asad wants to be succeeded by Bashar, his son, who is opposed by the hardliners.
Indeed Israel's window of opportunity hinges on the continuance of Hafiz Al Asad regime and its hand over to a fresh set of social moderates led by his son. The extremists in Syria are however keen to ensure that one of their men succeeds Asad. To this end they have sought to create rift within the Alwis sect to which the President belongs by propping up Rifat, Asad's brother who has been running a campaign against the regime from abroad. But that is only one side of the succession problem. Recently the Muslim Brotherhood brought out a leaflet asserting that Syria was not a monarchy and the President could not impose his son as the country's ruler after him. Such sentiments perfectly blend with the anti-royalist crusade of Osama bin-Laden and his cohorts. 'The Islamic Jihad' a recently-floated organisation also has vowed to continue the war against Israel if there is a peace settlement with Damascus. Some of 70,00000 Palestinians now living in Syria are its members. To forestall these possibilities Asad is now in hurry as much as Israel would like to complete its circle of peace around her.
However any long-term settlement in the Middle East will need to address the question of a viable Palestinian state which is still for from reality. Till it comes into being - perhaps with an effective partitioning of Jerusalem, handing over more lands for peace to Palestinian authority and a gradual dismantling of Jewish settlements in West Bank - the peace process will remain fraught with the chances of subversion. There are still hardliners in the occupied area of West Bank who would avail slightest opportunity to disrupt a fragile peace now in place in the region. If Barak is able to strike a deal with Syria, it will leave Israel free to concentrate on the security threat posed by the elements within Palestinian diaspora unreconciled to the absorption of what was Palestine into the Jewish homeland. Without backing from Syria - and Iran to an extent, such elements will find their ability to hit the Israelis largely circumscribed.
After their first formal meeting in Washington in November both Damascus and Tel Aviv - West Asia's most implacable foes - indicated that the reaching of peace between them was now a matter of months only. With the return to Golan Heights agreed in principle the only obstacle now is Syrian demand for compensation for shifting the Arabs displaced in 1967 war which, according to observers, will not constitute an insurmountable problem. Ironically however the problem is more acute with Barak who has been finding it difficult to convince his own hardliners about the virtue of the deal. Barak has already made giant leaps and according to Middle East watchers he can now dash up to the finish point.
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