Towards an endgame in Syria?

The charge-sheet is updated with every negative and disruptive development in the region against a beleaguered President Bashar who is now virtually isolated and fighting for the survival of his regime after being implicated by a UN enquiry into the murder of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri.

A UN report published recently named President Bashar's powerful brother-in-law and other Lebanese and Syrian security officials in the February 14 assassination of Hariri, redrawing overnight Lebanon's political landscape. As a result, the ruling regime in Syria is visibly shaken because it has documented now what everybody in Lebanon and Syria had suspected, that the latter was involved in Hariri's assassination in one way or another. "This is another nail in the coffin of the Syrian regime," said Volker Perthes of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs and an expert on Syria.

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It may be recalled that Syria came under severe US pressure for the withdrawal of her troops from Lebanon -- where they were stationed since 1989 under Taif agreement after a civil war broke out there -- immediately after the reelection of President Bush. Finally vide UNSC resolution No. 1559, Syria complied with the US demand, thus averting a crisis.

The murder of Lebanon's former prime minister -- known for his advocacy against Syria's military presence in Lebanon -- provided the US with another opportunity to turn the screw on a recalcitrant Syria, and she easily prevailed upon the UN Secretary-General to take cognisance of the assassination. An obliging Kofi Annan appointed a German prosecutor, Detlev Mehlis, to conduct the investigation and submit his findings. After an intensive investigation by the UN appointed prosecutor, the Lebanese intelligence personnel and head of the Lebanese presidential guards were taken into custody, although no Syrian suspect was as yet identified. It was however widely reported that General Gazalleh, then head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon and powerful Maher Assad, the brother-in-law of the Syrian president, were to be interviewed by Detlev for their possible complicity.

This is not all. The latest charge-sheet includes allegation of "Syria allowing its territory for those bent on sowing murder and mayhem in Iraq." Syria is also blamed for its "association with terrorist elements in Gaza and West Bank" to sabotage the peace process. These accusations are part of the policy of Bush administration that seeks regime change in countries deemed hostile to US interests.

To defuse the looming crisis, Bashar had planned to attend the UN summit for availing the opportunity to interact with the world leaders in New York to plead Syria's case. He was ostensibly thwarted in his attempt by an unusual delay in the issuance of his US visa and later, of course, by Detlev's visit to Damascus on September 10. Now should Mehlis report establish a Syrian complicity in Hariri's death, President Bashar and his regime will, in fact, be doomed. For it is bound to invite international odium against Syria leading to the weakening of the Bashar's authority. It would thus provoke a national crisis -- an ideal scenario for the US to pursue its agenda of regime change.

In 1984 when President Ronald Reagan withdrew the US forces from a then pro-US Lebanon following a suicide attack that killed 244 US marines, the conservative Republican and sometime US presidential candidate Pat Buchanan aptly said: "It is dangerous to be America's enemy but fatal to be America's friend."

Since then, the people of Lebanon had reason to recall those words. In 1990, President Bush Sr traded Lebanese sovereignty for President Hafiz-Al-Assad's support in the first Gulf War, which was decisively won by US-led coalition forces while Lebanon was ceded to Syria to be under the latter's military occupation. Today, various regional media outlets report that their sons, George W and Bashar Assad may be working on another deal -- an arrangement driven by realpolitik considerations. Bashar, taking a page out of Muamar-El-Gaddafi's playbook, is alleged to be negotiating with the Bush administration the modus vivendi to save his regime from the findings of a UN investigation into the assassination of Hariri.

The car bombing that killed Hariri precipitated huge protests in Lebanon and around the world forcing Syria to vacate her military occupation. This was fondly dubbed "Beirut spring" and considered an unequivocal triumph for the Bush administration, notwithstanding his colossal failure is stemming political chaos at home and containing escalating violence next door in Iraq.

Despite a short-lived Beirut spring, the Bush administration does realise its limitations in Lebanon which also witnessed massive pro-Syrian upsurge. As the last Syrian soldier crossed the border, an insidious campaign began to destabilise Lebanon. Scores of bombs targeting Christian areas gave rise to vigilante groups and heightened sectarian tensions. The security situation deteriorated immeasurably. Hizbollah, the dreaded outfit -- which alone could compel Israelis to vacate South Lebanon -- is still alive and active in Lebanon despite the US-Israeli efforts to wipe them out.

Now those Lebanese who counted on Bush's support are increasingly concerned over the deal that the US president might have agreed to cut with Assad to short-circuit the Mehlis report, granting top Syrian officials immunity in exchange for Syria's significant cooperation and support over Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It is not for nothing that Henry Kissinger once remarked that there couldn't be a war in the Middle East without Egypt and no peace without Syria. It is more so if that peace settlement has to be achieved in a way scripted by America.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.