Sri Lankan scene: Rajapakse's election may exacerbate conflicts

The nominee of the ruling Peoples Alliance (PA), he is known as a hard liner on the civil war issue compared to relatively more lenient Wickramsinghe, during whose premiership the government-rebels reconciliatory efforts had gained momentumn and the chances of a negotiated settlement of the complex problem also brightened. With his defeat the peace process may suffer a setback even though Mr Rajapakse maintains that he is not against dialogue.

Rajapakse made it clear before the polls that he would maintain the unitary character of Sri Lanka as a country and was against a federal character, which means he is not favourably disposed to granting autonomy or sharing of power with the rebels. Wickramsinghe's approach was to resume and carry forward the dialogue with the militants. With the election results, fears soared that Lankan scene may change for the worse and international community -- especially the Norwegian effort as a mediator to resolve the civil war through talks -- may also suffer since the new president is not much enthusiastic about such mediation. Two main candidates had also difference on economic issues, Rajapakse being left oriented while Wickramsinghe favouring free economy.

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The peace talks are stalemated for long and took a beating following exit from power of former prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe, whose government had initiated the dialogue with the rebels but was dismissed by president Chandrika evidently for being "soft" to the Tamil militants. The elections that followed brought Chandrika's supporters to power under new prime minister Mahindra Rajapakse, and chances of a settlement of more than two decades old civil war through discussions have since been hanging in the balance. The outgoing president Chandrika is relatively tough on the peace process, but of late supported it, saying it is for the larger interest of the nation. But Rajapakse is known hawkish on the issue.

Six rounds of talks between the Colombo government and the Tamil Tigers during Ranil's time raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in the country, which was virtually bleeding to white because of the long drawn conflict centring on minority Tamils' armed struggle for a separate homeland in the north of the island state. There was no decisive outcome of the civil war as the success in the battlefield swung from one side to the other and occasional cease fire produced no tangible results and hostilities resumed in quick time. However, situation marked a qualitative change when the government of prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe took an active pro-peace policy with the rebels over three years ago, which facilitated a dialogue that went for several rounds in different venues abroad making some progress in the vexed problem.

While it will be a height of folly to expect easy resolution of the Sri Lankan civil war given the complexities involved in the issue, the dialogue gave hopes since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of the Tigers while the later abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils and agreed for autonomy. The road to peace through negotiations is undoubtedly bumpy but what was remarkably encouraging is the marked willingness to find common ground towards a permanent settlement of the problem. Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated commendable attitude in carrying forward the parleys. Admittedly, talks occasionally went into rough weather and even at one stage had been suspended indefinitely and both sides never spoke of chances of resuming hostilities. The deal on tsunami relief operations brought them a little closer, despite differences.

The government suffered a serious setback a few months ago when communist JVP pulled itself out of the ruling alliance complaining of its too lenient attitude to the Tamil rebels. Before the election, prime minister Rajapakse signed an agreement with the JVP to review the peace agreement with the militants in exchange of that party's support for him in the presidential elections. The prime minister is taking a pro-Sinhalese line to placate the majority Sinhalese in disputes with the Tamil rebels. This was not liked by president Chandrika, who believed that both communities must live together and for this it is necessary to give some power to the rebels in their strongholds under federal structure. She reiterated the same during her visit New York for the gathering of the world leaders marking the 60th anniversary of the United Nations.

But the prime minister stuck to his anti-Tamil postures. He counted on the votes of the overwhelming Sinhala community many of whom favour hard line against the Tamils and they evidently did not disappoint Rajapakse. On the other hand, Wickramsinghe relied on the pragmatic Sinhalese, who want an end to bloodshed, and on the Tamils for his pro-peace policies. But the Tamil militants enforced a boycott of the voting that clearly heavily contributed to Ranil's defeat.

The difference of the votes polled was just two per cent, the winner bagging 50 per cent and the main rival 48 per cent. Wickramsinghe lost as he did not secure the anticipated Tamil votes because of the boycott. Tamils constitute 18 per cent of the total population.

The presidency is very powerful in Sri Lanka as the head of state can dismiss the prime minister's government and scrap the parliament. The new president will now obviously call the shots and his hard-line attitude may be reflected in policies as he has reason to believe that he has a mandate for that. However, Sri Lanka needs reconciliation and the verdict for the presidency was a very close race. If the new president takes this aspect into consideration, such an attitude should help resolve the main crisis. Otherwise, the island state may witness exacerbation of tensions and even resumption of violence and hostilities that cannot be good for the already badly ravaged but otherwise potentially prosperous nation.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.