Political earthquake in Israel

Israel has not seen anything like before. It is not only a new political game in the country but also has a deep impact on the peace process with Palestinians.

Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian chief negotiator, described the development a "political volcano" and said: "I hope that once the dust settles down in Israel, we will have a partner who is willing to re-engage in the endgame."

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On November 21, Sharon (77) asked President Moshe Katsov to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election in March next year that he hopes to win as a leader of a new centrist party, called National Responsibility, intent on pursuing peace with the Palestinians.

Sharon decided to break with the right-wing party which turned on him for withdrawing Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip in September. The far-right rebels is being led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who resigned as a Finance Minister at the time of withdrawal of troops from the Gaza Strip.

Sharon told the people that Likud Party was unfit to run the country. Opinion polls suggest that the once dominant party will likely to be in the margins of the Israeli politics because of its opposition about removal of Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip and infighting within the party.

Sharon has said that it was "painful" for him to leave the party but he did it for the sake of Israel's national interest. It is believed fourteen of Likud's forty lawmakers including five cabinet ministers have agreed to join him. It is speculated that Shimon Peres of Labour Party may join the new centrist party, New Responsibility.

His dramatic decision to leave the Likud Party triggered when the new left-wing Labour leader, Amir Peretz (53), wanted to leave the coalition government with Sharon.

On November 10, Peretz defeated Shimon Peres, Deputy Prime Minister, as a Labour Party leader. The new Labour leader did not wish to continue to be part of the right-wing government, led by Likud leader, Sharon. Peretz is a Jew with roots in the Arab world, used to be called as "Second Israel," the first Israel being the white European Jews.

Sharon's personality,br>Sharon is known as an "Israeli Caesar." There has never in Israel's history been a man such as Ariel Sharon. He is unique in his personality and his perception of the world, his approach to the rules of political game with Palestinians, his view of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and his ability to survive politically has been extraordinary.

He has been the most decorated General in the Israeli army and fought every war since 1948 to 1973 with the Arabs. As a military personnel, he has shown himself to be both brilliant and reckless on the battle field. As a Defence Minister in 1982, he masterminded invasion of Lebanon, during which Israel's Lebanese Christian allies massacred Palestinians men, women and children in the Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps. Yet he survived politically.

Defence Minister late General Moshe Dayan and Sharon had striking similarities. Both were born in Israel and came from the farming villages. Both were audacious, imaginative, and original.

History has it that the founding Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion and Defence Minister Moshe Dayan were happy that they finally had Sharon as a real fighter as an officer. Prime Minister Ben-Gurion saw in Sharon the realization of Israel and selected a Hebrew name, Ariel Sharon, replacing his original name Arik Scheinerman (his father Samuel and mother Vera migrated from Russia to British mandated Palestinian land in 1922).

How does the political climate change?
Yaron Etzrahi, a Political Science Professor at Hebrew University said: "What it brings to the Israeli voter is unprecedented clarity of choice between an ideological right-wing party, a left-wing Labour party and a centrist party led by Sharon."

Sharon, the most popular politician in the country, repeatedly stressed "peace with security" for Israel. Israelis know that he had fought always for security of the new state and they trust him so far security is concerned. He has strong security credentials and that is why his centrist party is likely to redraw the political map.

Israel's Haaretz newspaper reported that in a third term as the Prime Minister after March, he would seek to evacuate isolated Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, while retaining bigger enclaves in a new peace deal with Palestinians.

Sharon's departure would weaken Likud party and so also the West Bank Jewish settlers because they harnessed Likud's strength over the past three decades to exert a power over Israeli policies far in excess of their numbers.

As the head of a new party, Sharon will be free to pursue peace moves with the Palestinians and form a stable coalition with the Labour Party. Labour lawmaker, Yuli Tamir reportedly said: "The camp that wants to reach negotiations with Israelis just got bigger."

Sharon hopes that his new centrist party will be able to defeat the right-wing Likud and left-wing Labour Parties in the March election and with the assistance and support of the US administration, he would pursue plans to end conflict with the Palestinians, without having to battle Likud hardliners.

Recent polls suggest that a new party, bringing in some Labour members, would leave Sharon neck and neck with Peretz, with Likud pushed into third place.

Palestinians fear Sharon's aims to set a border unilaterally along the lines of the 720-kilometre wall being built deep inside the West Bank (the World Court in July, 2004 declared that the wall is illegal and should be dismantled) and which Israel says stops suicide bombers. Palestinians call it a land grab and argues that unilateral boundary between Israel and Palestinian territory is against the "roadmap for peace," envisaged by the US, Russia, Europe, and UN.

The election is likely to be held on March 28, 2006. No political party is likely to emerge from the election with an outright majority because of system of proportional representation in the outcome of election, not the system of first past the post, as in Britain or in Bangladesh. This means that possibly weeks of horse-trading will follow in an effort to put together a government.

Two facts may, however, go against Sharon. First, the aggressive new Labour Party leader, the left-winger Amir Peretz, could yet prove a better campaigner than his tired predecessor, the ousted Shimon Peres, and is publicly rejecting a coalition government. Second, the Likud party could also retain its key asset, the loyalty of Israel's Sephardic Jews, leaving Sharon in the cold.

Conclusion
By opting to abandon his right-wing Likud party and set up a centrist party of his own, Sharon hopes to confound his political enemies and reinvent Israeli politics. Sharon, the master gambler in politics and battlefield has taken a bold and risky decision.

Furthermore, the precedent for starting breakaway party in Israel is not encouraging. Founding Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion failed miserably when he tried, before slipping from the political scene.

Much depends on the coming months, when it will become clear how much of the Likud's centre chooses to go with Sharon and which way his ministers will jump.

The Sydney Morning Herald in an editorial recently summed up aptly when it wrote:

"What is at stake for Mr. Sharon is a place in history. For the stateless Palestinians, however, it is a place of their own."

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.