Bihar polls a setback for Congress and allies

The Rastriya Janata Dal of the heavyweight of Bihar politics for last fifteen years, Laloo Prasad Yadav, and its partner Congress headed by Sonia Gandhi not only tasted the defeat in the crucial state after many years, but the loss was somewhat beyond comprehension as their alliance could not mount any stiff resistance to the BJP-Jatana Dal (U) combine, which easily secured an absolute majority in the 243-member legislature. The development sent jubilation in the opposition camp in New Delhi and was greeted with dismay in the UPA circles. What is more important is that the outcome of the elections has brought an end to the fifteen years uninterrupted ascendancy of Laloo Prasad Yadav in Bihar and the curtain was rung down in "Laloo era" in the state at least for the time being.

Laloo is probably considered as the second most influential leader in the ruling UPA only after chairperson Sonia Gandhi and he is also a senior minister in charge of the important railway ministry. Although his party is confined mainly in the Bihar state, Laloo has been playing an important role in the national politics as much as Sharad Pawar of Maharastra, Jayaram Jayalalitha of Tamil Nadu, Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh even though their parties are basically regional and have not national following. In fact, barring the Congress and the BJP and to an extent the leftist CPM and the CPI, India had hardly other political organisations with some strength to reckon with at the national level.

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As a logical corollary to this condition, the supremos of the regional parties often call shots in shaping the national politics and Laloo Prasad Yadav appears to be most important of them. His RJD is a key ally of the Sonia Gandhi's Congress and both as partners of the UPA along with several other regional parties unseated the BJP-led NDA from power in India in polls early last year. Bihar was considered as a bastion for the UPA because of onetime near unassailable dominance by Laloo's RJD but now the scenario is just the opposite since the RJD and Congress cut a sorry figure in the polls.

Laloo's rise in politics has been meteoric in Bihar where his appeal to the common people was almost unmatched. His simple life, non-communal politics and populist approach brought him very close to the people as the erstwhile Janata Dal leader. But as chief minister he was embroiled in a scam and had to quit the official position. However, his popularity was such that he managed to bring his essentially housewife spouse Rabri Devi as his successor while he moved to federal politics and later set up the RJD breaking away from the mainstream Janata Dal. His wife remained the chief minister till February this year, when the polls gave fractured verdict warranting direct rule from New Delhi, and when the new voting took place their party along with the Congress have been beaten decisively. The wish of RJD and the Congress to remain in power in the state turned misnomer and thereby the UPA suffered its biggest setback since coming to power. Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal(U) has become the new chief minister ending the long Laloo-Rabri Devi chapter.

The election results will have ramifications in all India politics as well since the NDA finds it a shot in its arms. The development is particularly disturbing for the UPA since it has come close on the heels of the controversy surrounding K. Natwar Singh over the Volcker Commission report that forced him to step down as external affairs minister. Both houses of the Indian parliament recently witnessed pandemonium over Mr. Singh, who remains a minister without portfolio, and also the Congress party itself, as the Volcker Commission had found both as beneficiary of the "food for oil" project in Iraq during Saddam Hussain regime. Indian government has constituted two high powered commission to find out the truth, but the opposition is demanding resignation of the Congress-led government and also actions against Mr. Singh in the wake of the controversy. Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has said that his government would not spare anybody if found guilty but stressed that only the report of the two commissions will reveal the truth. The NDA is obviously happy that the Bihar elections win has come at a time when the UPA government is already facing trouble.

The victory of the BJP and its partner has also raised fears of revival of the domination of communal forces, and the leftist and other secular parties have already expressed their anxiety. They said the outcome of the Bihar assembly polls in no way reflected the mood of the people at the national level since it is fundamentally an anti-incumbency verdict as the RJD was in power there for many years. True, anti-incumbency factor played a key role in the polls but it is also correct to some extent to say that the result will encourage the communal forces to flex muscles in a bigger manner in the national politics. The BJP-led NDA had suffered unexpected shock defeat in the last Lokshaba polls. The UPA government is otherwise faring well. And the results of Bihar polls will have no direct bearing on the rule by the UPA, which relies on the support of the leftists. But certainly the reversal in Bihar has put pressure on the federal government which is now on the weak ground.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is Foreign Editor of BSS.