Will Israel change?

One must begin by answering one's likely critics who may question these developments' importance for Pakistanis? The short answer is that something of importance for Pakistanis hinges on these changes: Pakistanis have always been deeply concerned with what happens to Palestine and Palestinians. What happens in Israel vitally affects the future of Palestinians. Palestinians have virtually been left alone by most Arab states. Their cause however deserves sympathy of all humanists and democrats. But there is more.

Pakistan has taken baby steps towards recognizing Israel, whether the people like it or not. Then, the net change that might take place in Israeli politics as a result of March 28 election would make a lot of difference to the fortunes of Palestinians and many others farther afield. Also, this would presage significant changes in the Middle East. Encouraging Israel means giving it licence to do to Palestinians what its bellicose leaders please. The latter are not believers in human equality; for them Palestinian rights mean nothing. Only Israelis have unlimited rights. There is pressing need for sane minded people to stand by Palestinians' rights. This may look rather academic to others. But historically it is of much significance to Pakistanis.

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The changes in Israel have occurred because of divisions and confusion within Israeli politics. Sharon, by unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza Strip, while keeping the area in an iron grip, clears the road to implement his own programme for West Bank areas. Few can be certain what Sharon actually aims at. The separation wall is now nearing completion. A large amount of land, slightly more than half of West Bank, looks likely to be usurped by Israel. Shimon Perez' accession to his side will strengthen Sharon who wants to negotiate with Palestinians from a position of invincible strength. He means to convert the proposed Palestinian state into quite widely separated cantons, constantly surrounded and controlled by Israeli army. It is true Sharon has, rather ambiguously, said he accepts the US-given roadmap. But what that precisely means is unclear because Israel has had too many reservations and unexpected interpretations of both the Oslo agreement and the roadmap.

But some new uncertainties have arisen. The Israeli rightwing is now even more divided. The Americans are now trying to force the Israelis on to the roadmap that they had prescribed for the Arab-Israeli dispute. As a result of which Sharon decided to gamble: he expects to win the next election through the new party by luring some of the Centrists and even many Labour voters to his side by his bogus talk of promoting a centrist politics. How he will act after winning the polls remains a big uncertainty.

Let us note that Sharon is under attack from the extreme Right, represented mainly by Benjamin Netanyahu, a former Prime Minister and darling of Likud's ultras. Probably much of Israeli Right stays with Ariel Sharon, now trying to lure some Centrists and even Leftists to his Kadima party by the red herring of a new party and new politics. But the Labour Party has elected a new leader with a new line a radical change.

Amir Peretz, the new Labour Chief, is a Sephardim (of Asian-African origin). He is not a white-skinned immigrant from Europe (Ashkenazi) as all Labour leaders have been hitherto. He has already electrified the rather dormant Left in Israel. He represents a virtually new political strand in Israeli politics. Hitherto, Israeli politics was largely concerned relations with the Palestinians with a view to making Israel secure. Security has been the leitmotif of Israeli politics so far. In its place Amir Peretz, has brought some harsh facts of Israeli life centre stage.

Poverty line in Israel may be 30 percent or thereabout. The discrepancies in incomes and opportunities between the Ashkenazi and the darker Sephardim, the have-nots, have been growing. He wants more social solidarity -- i.e. more expenditure on social sectors -- to improve the living conditions of the bottom 40 percent of Israelis. Insofar as the security question is concerned, Peretz is willing to sign a peace treaty with the Palestinians on the basis of 1967 frontiers, as the UN Resolution 242 actually prescribed. He is apparently willing to withdraw from West Bank and Gaza, dismantle settlements and let a true Palestinian state arise. That is the promise. The question is would this truly make Israeli Left invincible or the old magic of security questions would continue to give the rightwing victory on March 28 next.

What is not in doubt is that Netanyahu's ultra right will fiercely attack Sharon. Netanyahu stands for even less land to Palestinians and status quo on social matters. He is likely to be supported in the next Parliament by other small Right groups. Sharon's chances only lie in his personal popularity that eats into all political divisions. He is also banking on the bulk of Right as well as basically Rightist elements inside the Labour Party. The latter has lately been socially as conservative as any Rightist. They are not pushed by social issues of persistent unemployment of a section of population and growing disparities of income for a growing numbers.

The gamble therefore is that Sharon hopes by his new party to lure as many votes from Labour as possible. On the other side, the question is whether the new Labour leader can revive the earlier peace camp and energise the party on social questions and make greater social solidarity and a more equitable distribution of wealth election issue. Can Peretz create a new Left, raring to come back, is the question? Can he make it grow? He has risen from the ranks as a trade unionist. Can he capture a majority of Knesset seats on his own or in coalition with Centrist elements, if any are left?

Whether Netanyahu wins or Sharon carries the Right, there remains the question of peace terms for the hapless Palestinians. The only ray of hope the Palestinians can see -- and they may be mistaken -- is in the American intervention. How far can American intervention go is a difficult question to answer. The major uncertainty has to be noted: whether a newly energized Left can come out of the cold? It has been Sharon's junior partner. Is it a new force?

The political battle now is between Peretz's social ideas and the lure of Palestinian land held out by both Netanyahu and Sharon. Netanyahu is, if possible, more to the Right than even Sharon. But Sharon is about as Rightist as they come. It is his political flare that he has got himself into the situation where he looks like a Centrist force. Doubtless that is a price that Sharon is paying to defeat Netanyahu. The latter may also have to pay some price on social questions, while focusing only on security questions. Anyway, the next election in Israel would be significant for outside world for what policies does the new government in April next adopt on questions vis-à-vis the Palestinian state and whether Peretz will actually be able to win on a peace programme by brining social questions centre stage.

MB Naqvi is a leading columist in Pakistan.